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From the Floor: The big mess of GE — #SaxoStrats
14 November 2017 at 8:32 GMT
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Video / 14 November 2017 at 8:32 GMT

From the Floor: The big mess of GE — #SaxoStrats

Very busy calendar including an ECB conference where Yellen and Draghi will speak
Low Sweden CPI could threaten new EURSEK highs
Equities are still very strong at the moment
General Electric, GE, under pressure
Oil market is drifting as it lacks news from the Middle East

 By Clemens Bomsdorf

Today we'll have that rare eventuality of several main central bank figures speaking at the same conference. In Frankfurt the lineup includes the head of the ECB, the Fed as well as the central banks of the UK and Japan who will sit on the same panel. For John J Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank, this Tuesday is therefore is a day to be watched closely when it comes to forex. However, he does not expect any big news from either Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi or Mark Carney or Haruhiko Kuroda. 

When it comes to individual currencies, a weak CPI print today in Sweden could threaten new EURSEK highs and also the UK one if deviating from expectations will have an effect on GPB and could set the tone for more rates hikes.
Source: Saxo Bank

In equities in general sentiment is still very good, notes Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of equity strategy. However, it looks quite the opposite at the moment for GE, which saw its shares drop another 8% yesterday. "GE is a big mess at the moment,“ says Garnry, adding that the share price is now at the level of around five years ago and could see further downside. Regionally, in particular Hong Kong is worth watching. The stock market there is now about 4% above its 2007 peak, but should still have upside potential according to Garny as it is lacking behind other major global markets.

GE share price since 2010
Source: Saxo Bank

In commodities, Ole Hansen, Saxo's head of commodity strategy, notes strong oil prices, which currently are drifting sideways as the market is in wait-and-see-mode when it comes to potential news from the Middle East. Brent shows signs of profit taking. A record long Brent crude oil bet putting some downward pressure on the premium to WTI while lowering prompt backwardation. Gold remains stuck as it continues to trade around the 100-day moving average, last at $1278/oz.

Brent price over the last couple of monthsoil FTF 20171114
Source: Saxo Bank

Copper trades unchanged despite seeing Chinese output and consumption softening in October. Funds cut bullish bets last week by 20%, a sign that further upside may be hard to achieve at this stage given the outlook for lower winter demand as the government combats pollution.

GE pic
 Has seen better times: The United States' GE. Photo:


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