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From the Floor: The Trump tax effect – #SaxoStrats
28 September 2017 at 7:32 GMT
Options Lab webinar: Trading spreads using VIX options
Georgio Stoev
07 September 2017 at 8:10 GMT
Options Lab webinar: Q2 US market review — #SaxoStrats
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13 July 2017 at 13:46 GMT
Why I'm selling oil: O'Hare
Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading
01 June 2017 at 7:07 GMT
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Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading
17 November 2016 at 8:14 GMT
Trading tips week 45 - technical analysis: Kim
James Kim@Saxo
07 November 2016 at 9:49 GMT
From the Floor: Bond yields on the move — #SaxoStrats
28 October 2016 at 7:10 GMT
Why I believe oil will go lower: O'Hare
Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading
13 October 2016 at 7:16 GMT
Trading volatility with options — #SaxoStrats video
Georgio Stoev
12 October 2016 at 14:13 GMT
Why I'm bullish on oil: O'Hare
Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading
06 October 2016 at 7:25 GMT
Longer-dated US Treasury bonds are attractive: Berger
Serge Berger
26 September 2016 at 7:12 GMT
Is the VIX move good or bad?: Jakobsen
Steen Jakobsen
14 September 2016 at 12:03 GMT
Video / 28 September 2017 at 7:32 GMT

From the Floor: The Trump tax effect – #SaxoStrats

  • Trump presented a very comprehensive tax reform – Hardy
  • Equities in US and Europe could get a boost from tax plan – Garnry
  • Democrats likely to oppose business flat tax as big companies profit, too – Hardy
  • Crude oil and spreads beginning to normalise as US energy flows resume
  • Supply disruption from Kurdistan (550kbp) still a risk following independence vote

By Clemens Bomsdorf

The big topic today is the US tax plan presented by president Donald Trump. It affects all markets including forex, commodities, fixed income and equities. "Trump’s tax reform is very comprehensive,“ judges John J Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank. He underlines the "very generous“ increase of deductibles for families and individuals as well as the 25% flax rate for business. Democrats will surely oppose this latter element as it is valid for small business with 100,000 USD income as well as for those with 100 million USD. 

Trump's suggestions fuelled US stocks, notes Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of equity strategy. US small caps were up 2%. If it gets through, the "US tax plan would be a major boost for equities,“ says Garnry, who expects positive effects not only in the US, but also in Europe. Looking at sectors and individual stocks he points out the good performance of Micron and says he would be long in US stocks. Talking about stocks, Saxo Bank's Asia macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen points at ZhongAn, a major fintech, which just got listed in HongKong and is up 12% now. 

Oil EIA highlights

Gold got headwind from Trump’s tax plan and more than half of the rally from July has been retraced, says Ole Hansen, Saxo's head of commodity strategy, adding that it might only need a couple of headlines to increase demand again. Platinum is reaching a record discount to gold while being topped by palladium for the first time in 16 years.

Yesterday’s inventory report showed the US energy market is returning to normal after the recent turmoils triggered by hurricanes. Crude oil and spreads beginning to normalise as US energy flows resume. US reports a record WTI export (+563kbd) bringing down the discount to Brent. Increased import of products (+861kbd) helps rebuild stocks and bring down refinery margins to pre-Harvey level. US production is close to record while Libya wants to add 350kbd before the end of the year. Supply disruption from Kurdistan (550kbp) is still a risk following the independence vote with 93% in favor. Turkey, Iraq and Iran, the surrounding neighbours, all strongly oppose the independence move.

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