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Playlist: Twitter

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6:04
Options jive - follow-up on trades: Stoev & Røsand
Georgio Stoev
08 July 2016 at 13:42 GMT
1:44
Google could buy Twitter: Garnry
Peter Garnry
13 June 2016 at 14:04 GMT
8:24
Marius buys his first put option: Stoev & Røsand
Georgio Stoev
08 June 2016 at 11:44 GMT
1:28
Three reasons to buy Twitter: Peter Garnry
Peter Garnry
18 March 2016 at 10:41 GMT
4:08
Twitter for Trading - Top tips and tricks
Ole Hansen
19 June 2015 at 12:10 GMT
1:38
Berger: Twitter’s unexpected rebound
Serge Berger
01 June 2015 at 7:13 GMT
1:18
#SaxoStrats: Twitter's dive a chance to buy
Peter Garnry
29 April 2015 at 8:31 GMT
2:23
Earnings Season: How to read Twitter's results
Peter Garnry
28 April 2015 at 12:16 GMT
3:49
Live streaming, Tesla’s teaser and can Tidal sweep Spotify away?
Marie-Louise Møller
02 April 2015 at 9:13 GMT
1:10
Berger: Twitter has 'Facebook moment'
Serge Berger
09 February 2015 at 7:12 GMT
1:42
Earnings Season: Could this be Twitter's most important post?
Peter Garnry
04 February 2015 at 12:23 GMT
1:28
Berger: Why Twitter is a buy
Serge Berger
25 August 2014 at 7:10 GMT
Video / 19 December 2017 at 8:19 GMT

From the Floor: ZAR in focus on Ramaphosa win — #SaxoStrats

#SaxoStrats
   • Ramaphosa elected ANC leader with 52% of the vote
   • Victory priced in but more rand volatility likely
   • Twitter shares spike on takeover speculation
   • Strong equities sentiment continues in Asia
   • EPS expectations expanding for the first time since 2010

SaxoStrats
By Michael McKenna

Union leader Cyril Ramaphosa has been elected leader of the African National Congress, South Africa's ruling political party, with the ZAR rallying into the win and then retreating as the exuberance consolidated.

According to Saxo Bank head of forex strategy John J Hardy, Ramaphosa's win is a hopeful sign for the country but how much success he will have implementing his planned reforms – particularly given his narrow, 52% victory – remains to be seen.

"Another question that remains is whether [South African president] Jacob Zuma will step aside, or whether Ramapahosa will need to wait until the 2019 election," Hardy adds.

The rand remains hot, trading at 12.8052 versus USD (as compared with 13.70 one week ago), but is consolidating in the wake of Ramaphosa's victory with USDZAR up from just above 12.50 overnight.

Beyond the ZAR, Hardy reports that the USD largely shrugged off President Trump's national security address Monday, despite its taking a more measured tone on China than many feared (the phrase "economic aggression" was notably absent, for instance).

On the calendar, the week's major FX events are tomorrow's Riksbank meeting in Sweden and Friday's US PCE inflation release.

USDZAR:
USDZAR

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Source: Saxo Bank 

In stocks, Saxo equities head Peter Garnry reports that Twitter shares are flying high, up 11% Monday (and over 40% since late October) on renewed speculation on a takeover. The latest round of chatter was triggered by a photo taken last Thursday of Twitter head Jack Dorsey and Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein together at Twitter's San Francisco headquarters.

Beyond Twitter, Garnry reports that sentiment remains bullish in Asia, led by China, adding that earnings-per-share expectations are on the rise for the first time since 2010, potentially marking a shift from a valuation- to a growth-centric narrative.

As for Twitter, however, Garnry says that, all speculation aside, "Twitter is no longer a growing business" and points to the firm's negative rvenues growth.

On the Ramaphosa win, Saxo's equities head points to the potential for a rally in South African shares, which are down 7% from their November peak.

"South Africa has a unique position as a gateway to sub-Saharan Africa," notes Garnry, adding that this status could prove a boon given China's interest in the region.

Pretoria, South Africa
 Pretoria, South Africa: The Zuma era is coming to a close. Photo: Shutterstock

Michael McKenna is senior editor at Saxo Bank
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