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Write a Squawk to Vladimir M
  • Article / 11 August 2017 at 14:01 GMT

    WCU: Fear drives gold, oil stays rangebound — #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    WCU: Fear drives gold, oil stays rangebound  — #SaxoStrats
    Heightened geopolitical risks triggered by sharp rhetoric between US president Donald Trump and North Korea this week boosted demand for gold, the yen and secure bonds while high-yield bonds and stocks were knocked lower. Both precious and industrial metals moved higher, energy was flat while agriculture commodities slumped
    Read the article
    11 August
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    435 of zwu7 at least not so bad inflation
    11 August
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    however I heard some problems with milk in Russia
  • Squawk / 11 August 2017 at 8:40 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    IEA's latest Oil Market Report once again points to lower for longer. While oil stockpiles are falling as supply cuts take hold the IEA also cut its estimates for crude oil needed from Opec this year and next. Opec crude output rose by 230k b/d in July, highest this year, led by recovery in Libya. Opec compliance with output cuts dropped to 75%, the lowest this year. US saw the largest monthly crude stock draw in more than three years in July.
    Link: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
    Read the Squawk
    16 August
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    127weat million tonn harvest in Russia
  • Squawk / 12 July 2017 at 14:24 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil squeezing higher on continued short-covering ahead of EIA's weekly inventory report. Last nights big draw from the API combined with last weeks EIA draw of 6.3m barrels has raised speculation that this could be the beginning of the rebalancing. Also keep and eye on imports/exports, gasoline demand and production estimates for further clues whether the price slump since Q1 has undermined output growth.
    Results and comments will be posted below
    Read the Squawk
    12 July
    AIRLINE AIRLINE
    Matsuri, the API and especially the EIA figures are the most important and transparent statistics released for the oil market.

    The Opec report is mostly very...
    13 July
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    Yes, it was possible to buy clq7 after API release at 45.8 and sell 46.2 before EIA release, of course with full mind of fear and no...
    17 July
    AIRLINE AIRLINE
    Hey Vladimir M, perhaps with some nerves and pain as well...
  • Article / 12 July 2017 at 8:47 GMT

    Gold and silver attempt a comeback but not in the clear — #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Gold and silver attempt a comeback but not in the clear —
 #SaxoStrats
    Gold and not least silver have been under considerable pressure since the recent hawkish shift in tone among central banks. A spike in real yields and a weaker Japanese yen have led the market lower, but an oversold yen and renewed Trump uncertainty have triggered a small bounce. What levels should we look out for now?
    Read the article
    13 July
    PabloInvest PabloInvest
    Muchas gracias por compartir esta información, me va a venir de perlas para retocar un poco mis estrategias de inversión que sigo para operar en opciones binarias....
    21 July
    AxelBP AxelBP
    Gold markets are steadily falling, right? I am from Spain and I always try to invest in opciones binarias https://www.opcionesbinarias.site/ (from here to find regulated brokers), but...
    21 July
    Albertito Albertito
    Excelente analisis Ole, el oro hace tiempo que es una de las iversiones mas rentables.
    En http://www.binarias.org/blog/estrategia-para-invertir-en-oro/ se explica claramente una estrategia para invertir en oro.

    Saludos
  • Article / 06 July 2017 at 11:40 GMT

    Wheat price surge raises risk of 'bad' inflation — #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Wheat price surge raises risk of 'bad' inflation — #SaxoStrats
    Critical dry conditions from Australia to the US and Canada have led to a surge in spring wheat prices on key futures exchanges. The price of hard red spring wheat traded in Minneapolis has jumped 50% in the past few weeks, with calls for it potentially to return to $10/bushel, the highest since 2012.
    Read the article
    06 July
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    in Russa unfortunately producers see oversuplayed storehouses, many agricultural products are twice price droped
  • 06 July
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Thank you Vladimir. It looks hot but at least with some rain in between.
    06 July
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    At least in Russia harvest is going good to be
  • 28 June
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    US production rose 429,000 b/d during Q1 but with just one week left of the current quarter the rise in production has slowed to just 50,000 b/d...
    28 June
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Special factors played its part in the production slump last week. Hurricane Cindy triggered reduced off-shore production. But overall we are seeing a trend of declining production...
    28 June
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    just in 1988 was this case (summer -winter price)
  • 16 June
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    Grains shortsqueeze came the long-awaited
    16 June
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Dollar index really strenghten after FED this week, but it's interesting analyze DX from COT perspective. IMHO: no reason to applaude too much.
  • Squawk / 14 June 2017 at 13:51 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil trades on the back foot ahead of EIA's 'Weekly Petroleum Status Report' at 1430 GMT. A double dose of price negative news has triggered the latest weakness. The API yesterday reported another counter seasonal rise in US crude inventories, this time by 2.75 million barrels. The IEA in their 'Monthly Oil Market Report' today said that non-Opec oil production growth could meet demand growth in 2018. This would leave limited room for Opec to increase production post the current 9 month extension.
    Today's EIA report is surveyed to show a drop in oil stocks by 2.4 million barrels and gasoline by 1.2 million. Last week saw total oil and fuel inventories rise by a combined 15.5 million barrels, the biggest weekly jump since 2008.
    That jump was triggered by lower exports together with higher imports and weaker refinery and gasoline demand (see table below). WTI needs a break above $47.80 before stabilizing
    IEA link: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
    Read the Squawk
    14 June
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
    15 June
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    Similarly in the heat icecream will be cheaper, because street vendors increased inventorys. - !
    21 June
    bossanova_jazz bossanova_jazz
    How about the LPG price ?? Is there any side effect from qatar banned?
  • Article / 07 June 2017 at 11:20 GMT

    Oil pressured by rising supply with limited impact of Qatar spat

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Oil pressured by rising supply with limited impact of Qatar spat
    A flare-up in Middle East tensions has so far failed to add a risk premium to the price of oil. Instead the focus has been on the potentially negative impact of the current deal to curb production falling apart. Add to this an expectation of record US production in 2018 and a potential 10% jump in output from Nigeria after the lifting of export restrictions, and oil is clearly under pressure.
    Read the article
    07 June
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Oil continues to loose ground, currently down 3.4%. The inventory jump in crude was got triggered by a 356k b/d rise in imports and a 746k b/d...
    07 June
    matsuri matsuri
    but it seems that production in the USA decreased
    07 June
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    as if there were a secret agreement on the price of oil, for which high prices in the winter traded at lower prices in the summer
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