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2 Followers
Write a Squawk to trfl
  • Article / 01 May 2018 at 8:46 GMT

    Iran nuclear deal: A binary event awaits the oil market

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Iran nuclear deal: A binary event awaits the oil market
    Crude oil continues to receive some non-fundamental price support from ongoing worries about the Iranian supply outlook. President Trump needs to decide before May 12 whether to stick to the current Iran nuclear deal, abandon it, or go for an overhaul. The outcome could trigger a major market reaction in either direction.
    Read the article
    1y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Brent crude oil is currently stuck in a relative tight range with low volumes seen following yesterday's Netanyahu surge.
    1y
    Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
    72.75 the key support in Brent...
    1y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    European buyers of Iranian crude oil. Source: Platts
  • Squawk / 27 September 2017 at 13:41 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Trump and GOP's tax plan unveiling later today from 19:15 GMT has brought back the echo of the Trump Trade as John Hardy mentioned in his update earlier today. As a result the dollar continues to strengthen while US 10-year bond yields has jumped to 2.3%, the highest since August 1. Gold is under pressure from these developments with the next level of support being $1281/oz.
    Platinum has reached parity with palladium for the first time in 16 years while its discount to gold has reached a fresh record.
    Expect raised volatility across asset classes later today.
    Read the Squawk
  • Trade view / 20 September 2017 at 8:24 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Buy

    Protecting gold downside risks post FOMC – #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Following its latest weakness gold has stabilised ahead of today's FOMC meeting. Although a hawkish tilt is not expected the combination of a large speculative long and a major technical level just below carries the risk that a surprise announcement could send it lower by more than what would otherwise be warranted.
    Read the Trade View
    2y
    ChristianK ChristianK
    Hi Ole. Good call on this one. The option expiries tomorrow. Do we just let it run out? Is it cash settled? Thx
    2y
    Georgio Stoev Georgio Stoev
    Options are American style, so you'd need to close before expiration if you don't want to exercise.
    2y
    ChristianK ChristianK
    Thanks Georgio
  • Squawk / 23 May 2017 at 12:00 GMT
    Double Black Diamonds
    Dominican Republic
    Anyone know how one could short BTC? Is there a BTCUSD pair in forex to short that bubble? TIA.
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    trfl trfl
    yes, I think fxopen
  • Article / 28 April 2017 at 1:28 GMT

    Bank of Japan’s road to nowhere

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Bank of Japan’s road to nowhere
    The BoJ has made a commitment to maintaining “highly accommodative financial conditions” until inflation exceeds 2% but that won't happen anytime soon. Governor Kuroda’s exit and replacement would provide a face-saving opportunity for the powers that be to admit the experiment has failed and reverse course before this road to nowhere hits a brick wall.
    Read the article
    2y
    Patto Patto
    The ECB and BOJ said basically the same thing: full steam ahead with QE until they actually see 2% inflation, not just a forecast of it..........
    2y
    trfl trfl
    Thanks Max for the article. Do you still think USDJPY will head to 107 or what is your take on USDJPY?
  • 2y
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Welcome to request Monday's Forecass
    2y
    FBT431 FBT431
    Am I right understand you: tomorrow (Monday) you will update forecast where I can see your opinion about EUR/GBP?
    2y
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    My Contact details included under my Bio on TradingFloor
  • Squawk / 19 March 2017 at 20:19 GMT
    XAUUSD aka Gold is bullish and might have made an important low but objectively it could have been wave a of an abc pullback, can't tell...but as with gold stocks a second low might come in higher as the trend is bullish.
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    Gold and Silver need a little downside help from the equity markets to really get out of this funk. Same can be said for other risk...
    2y
    Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
    Yes, maybe they'll keep funking until then :).
  • Trade view / 15 March 2017 at 12:30 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Buy

    Will gold rally once again following a US rate hike? — #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Gold has stabilised after correcting 50% of its December-to-February rally. Rising yields ahead of a potentially more hawkish Fed rate hike today have been the main drivers behind the latest weakness. The previous two hikes marked a low point and we are looking for a repeat through a short-dated option play.
    Read the Trade View
    2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    $12.70 trading. This will be my last update on this trade idea. Best of luck to those of you hanging in there. The break above $1230 could...
    2y
    Andraz Antonic Andraz Antonic
    Thumbs up Ole, nice catch with excellent pre-trade analysis and later trade handling.
    2y
    Muzza Muzza
    Thanks Ole. I exited whole position at $12 I am more than happy with that result. This was a great trade idea thanks again :-)
  • Squawk / 23 February 2017 at 8:12 GMT
    Global Head of Listed & OTC Derivatives Sales / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Sold one Euro-Bund Futures March17 at 164.96
    Stop loss at 165.30
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    Patrice Henault Patrice Henault
    depending on the price action 164.64 (50 hours moving average) but the TP is not place yet, just monitoring price action
    2y
    ashrafj1 ashrafj1
    Closed with losing
    2y
    trfl trfl
    what could have been the trigger the euro bund futures went higher?
  • Squawk / 17 February 2017 at 21:19 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Quiet trading Friday in the US ahead of a long weekend (markets closed Monday for President’s day)

    The S&P 500 made a small gain, USD index rose (mainly because of a weak EUR); bond yields were down a touch.

    Note in the chart below that the USD index is not reacting to the rising prob. of a March 15 rate hike. Since 1994 the Fed has never moved unless market pricing in the lead up was at least 75%. Today March is priced at only 40%. Even June is marginal.

    But plenty of Fed speakers next week with a chance to “guide” the market.

    Meanwhile Pres.Trump is promising more “tremendous” announcements.

    The second chart shows the US fed funds curve in a global context. Only the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is priced to follow a similar track to higher rates.
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    I would argue that the PE in the 40's during 2000 was an aberration due to a 1st stage bubble of three being focused into only...
    2y
    seas seas
    I would tend to agree with that. There are new efficiencies and economies of scale to take into account though.
    2y
    seas seas
    And that can feed the monkey.
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