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Love the art and science of prediction. One step at a time, and sometimes back, learning why some predictions succeed and why some fail.
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Followers
Write a Squawk to TheWillinator
  • 4y
    TheWillinator TheWillinator
    Great analysis... fits story of recent Irish Election. Economy growing at 8% GDP but government lost election because effects are not been felt on 'Main Street'.

    Political...
    4y
    bparkes19 bparkes19
    The last time the social contract was broken was the early 1930s. Has anyone looked at inflation charts around that time? The contract breaks down at the...
    4y
    BobbieMac BobbieMac
    Clinton will win, especially if Trump is the opponent. The real issue will be in the congressional races. If the Republicans maintain control it will...
  • Article / 10 December 2015 at 13:06 GMT

    Austerity doesn't work, except when it does

    Austerity doesn't work, except when it does
    Europe's sovereign debt crisis felled a wide swathe of the continent's nations, forcing them to go cap in hand to the IMF and ECB for bailouts. The consequent imposition of austerity measures caused (and still causes) much disgruntlement, but despite evidence to the contrary, there are still those who ague that it doesn't work.
    Read the article
    4y
    Clare MacCarthy Clare MacCarthy
    Great article Mads. Worryingly, the new buzzword in Dublin is "Celtic Tiger 2.0"
    And today's Irish Times says "Renting a home in Dublin now costs just €30 less...
    4y
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    It is certainly something to keep an eye on. Looking at house prices vs. wages then affordability has gone up in recent years.
    4y
    Clare MacCarthy Clare MacCarthy
    Yes! I'll take six.
  • Editor’s Picks / 30 July 2015 at 11:59 GMT

    Irish economic recovery continues with 6.5% growth

    The Irish Times
    Ireland’s economy grew by more than 6% in the first three months of the year compared with the same period in 2014, new figures reveal. Data released this morning in Dublin by the Central Statistics Office shows that gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2015 accelerated by 6.5% year-on-year while gross national product (GNP) advanced by 7.3%, the Irish Times reports. GDP grew 1.4% in the first quarter of 2015 compared with the final quarter of 2014. But GNP, which strips out the impact of multinational profit flows, declined 0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
    Read article on The Irish Times
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  • Article / 26 January 2015 at 0:08 GMT

    Greek election: It's really up to the ECB and EU now

    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Syriza is the big winner in the Greek election - leaving room for doom-and-gloom scenarios and the like, but in real terms the market reaction will be ruled by how the EU and the ECB respond. Greece lost its economic independence during the peak of the Euro crisis, tonight election election was merely a reflection on this fact - not new information.
    Read the article
    5y
    Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
    Early move on Greek election: Stock market down 5%+ and rates 40-70 bps higher
    5y
    Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
    It seems my message gets misinterpreted so here is what I am trying to say: What Greece needs is a hair-cut - not more or less austerity.....the...
    5y
    Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
    should read micro not micto
  • Squawk / 26 November 2014 at 16:12 GMT
    -
    Ireland
    €1 = $1, USA rates begin to rise earlier than expected and Dragi gets the go ahead to aggressively buy Bonds to keep Germany/EU out of recession.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 27 August 2014 at 11:08 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    US 10 Year cheapest in G-7! This is one of the reasons for my change to US fixed income and short US Dollar.

    US 10 Year spread vs. G-7 equivalent now at @ 79 bps - close to all time high... as the chart indicates there is considerable mean-reversion in this data serie.

    The market is long, very long the US dollar into ECB and FOMC meeting where consensus quietly is looking for 10 bps cut @ ECB, maybe even announcement of "private" ABS and in the US the regional banks keeps wanting discount rate normalised, but..... reality is close by....

    I remain long US fixed income - and will add on any sell of... long investors could use IEF
    Read the Squawk
    5y
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    Nonetheless, PIMCO's zero coupon US long treasury fund is up 27% on the year - triple what the US S&P500 index has managed so far this year......
    5y
    benlouro benlouro
    looks like another good call Steen
  • 5y
    amanda amanda
    This comment has been redacted
  • Squawk / 04 March 2014 at 12:23 GMT
    Irish consumer confidence rose to 85.5 in February from 84.6 a month earlier. This is the highest level since May 2007. The current conditions index climbed to 100.2 from 97.6 while the expectations index dropped 0.2 points to 75.6.
    Read the Squawk
    6y
    fxtime fxtime
    Clare the shops might be packed... but were those shops the ones displaying sales and offering discount rates like 70% off (eg like the UK) ?? I...
    6y
    TheWillinator TheWillinator
    Economy is definitely picking up. Unemployment level is back below EU average.
    6y
    Clare MacCarthy Clare MacCarthy
    And property prices are picking up. And construction is starting again. Is that the purr of a Celtic Tiger cub I can hear rumble......
  • 6y
    TheWillinator TheWillinator
    Great call. That basket of stocks is up over 15% since Nov 29th. General Irish economy also doing well. Unemployment steadily falling. Turbo Piig.
  • 6y
    Paal-Harald Paal-Harald
    Good summary of the uncertainty of the oilmarket impact with an Syria intervention. Libya crisis is maybe of more significance due to its very low output compared...
    6y
    fxtime fxtime
    Non linear pretty much sums up our line of business of market trading :-)
    Option plays must be viewed as the safer mode of trading via strangles or...
    6y
    Flavian Eigensatz Flavian Eigensatz
    Syria is "only" the 17th largest oil producer. Without doubt, an impact would have a participation of Iran to the conflict.
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