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Trading strategy
Long-term technically-driven strategies underpinned by indicators/pattern recognition

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2 Followers
Write a Squawk to Rogan
  • Article / Friday at 15:36 GMT

    Does NAFTA spell 'Not Another Failed Trump Action'?

    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    Does NAFTA spell 'Not Another Failed Trump Action'?
    Only the euro and sterling lost ground against the US dollar in a week dominated by a dysfunctional Trump administration that sparked worries that the president's whole economic agenda could be derailed. Meanwhile, talks to revise the NAFTA treaty got started this past week.
    Read the article
    2d
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Hello Michael. Look at Oil. 3.3% gain on Friday with no data released! Have a great Weekend. 😜
    2d
    Sajor Sajor
    What about Mexico? Canada wants, US wants...
    2d
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Not enough space to do it justice.
  • Squawk / Thursday at 17:54 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Mean reversion trading can be applied to many many marketplaces. But drawdowns can be severe. Option traders always trade the extremes of market moves because they know it is safer....when volatility is for example at an extreme you would trade contrarian as you expect sooner or later you would volatility to return to average return to the mean and thus make your revenue. Combining both extreme moves and mean reversion techniques become IMHO a very worthwhile trade strategy. One for those who have known me too many years is a favourite trade scenario. Consider the sp500 currently a spread between last nights closing bell price and tonights if beyond 24pts would permit me to trade a mean reversion trade with the expectation that we will rally to the mean within 2 to 3 trading days max. Trade small as drawdowns can be grim but probability of success is insanely good!
    Read the Squawk
    3d
    fxtime fxtime
    This was one of the articles but as yet I can't find the more definitive ranges. Give me a bit of time though :-)
    https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/walking-our-way-into-an-average-strategy-8253195
    3d
    Rogan Rogan
    Thanks mate, no rush :)
    3d
    kom75 kom75
    Thanks fx. Have a great evening guys:)
  • Squawk / Tuesday at 8:58 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Bank of Japan purchased $2billion Japanese Equity ETF last week and now possess $127billion or if you prefer they own 3.2% of the market.
    The view is to stabilise markets and invest into their listed economy but this distorts GDP and market equitable correlations. Those that feel ETF's are an efficient and economic investment tool with minimal risks are unaware of an event called liquidity spirals. Furthermore the size of BoJ exposure to japanese equity markets and their own ETF causes a risk structure which isn't distributed. Their risk is concentrated on a single economy....their own. Hedgehogging is a real risk where a trade size becomes so large that it influences the very market they are trying to trade/invest within. Any purchases distorts the price upwards as constant buying distorts the supply/demand metrics and even worse any selling causes panic. Black swan events do occur and this is becoming a ticking time bomb.
    Read the Squawk
    6d
    fxtime fxtime
    Apologies I am having rough time today running errands shall we say ! But totally agree with you. CHoveman asked me a few days ago about this...
    5d
    fxtime fxtime
    @USXAU I've just been researching your data and Bloomberg have a caveat that they are under-estimating due to time delays in collating data. So what you provide...
    5d
    usxau usxau
    FX, I would not be surprised that the numbers have changed, but thinking of the sheer amount of shares the SNB has bought over the last 8...
  • 6d
    usxau usxau
    Thanks fx, I am position trader not a day trader, would love your spreadsheet! cryptosab@gmail.com :)
    Most appreciate you sharing your knowledge! Never hurts to learn something new!...
    6d
    fxtime fxtime
    I am always learning ! LOL
    6d
    fxtime fxtime
    email forwarded to your goodself.
  • Article / 11 August 2017 at 15:12 GMT

    In FX, if it hurts, you're losing

    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    In FX, if it hurts, you're losing
    US president Donald Trump turned what would have been dull, dog days of an August trading week into a lively affair that sparked widespread risk aversion and got a whole bunch of people googling Guam.
    Read the article
    11 August
    usxau usxau
    I hear you both loud and clear! LOL
    11 August
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Yea but you are a bike racer. So obviously you are already fit. The pain is just to remind you what not-so-fit people have to endure.,...
    11 August
    fxtime fxtime
    ex racer and no longer fit :-(
  • Squawk / 11 August 2017 at 14:27 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    EURGBP made quite a breakout today. So far we have had the end of day mean reversion of close prices. A remarkably consistent market for this aspect :-)
    However today may well be different. A close below yesterdays day high implies IMHO an end of move and failed rally and I will look to swing short !
    Read the Squawk
    11 August
    fxtime fxtime
    Rogan if you are trading the MRT H4 strategy you must be doing well these days :-)
    11 August
    usxau usxau
    FX, MRT?? Thanks for the hint! Cheers :)
    11 August
    Rogan Rogan
    It is an excellent setup especially with these unhinged world leaders we have....
  • Squawk / 07 August 2017 at 18:04 GMT
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    Taperings and asset markets.

    The European Central Bank will almost certainly decrease its monthly asset purchases after 2017.

    Let's go through couple of charts.

    First:
    iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (both developed and emerging stocks)
    US oil futures continuous
    Dollar index future continuous
    Read the Squawk
    08 August
    usxau usxau
    Sharp and concise analysis! The question is if the CB's of this world even will allow the equity markets to deflate to more reasonable valuations?
    08 August
    Cat Cat
    Incredibly useful analysis. Thank you for the charts. Makes it compelling to see the correlation.
    08 August
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    The above suggests there could be deeper market correction coming, something similar to what we saw in 2015.

    For that not to happen, oil needs to rally...
  • 06 August
    seas seas
    Could be a safe-haven week.
    09 August
    seas seas
    Hate to say it, so I wont.
    09 August
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    :) nice call
  • Squawk / 04 August 2017 at 9:34 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    USDCHF chart attached....daily close price setting only. I have offset a MMA3 which mimics a basic point of control in the market place. Note prior times where the market has hit this MMA3 (orange line) then bounces away but a crossover implies a change in trend. A close below the white line confirms bear trend starting. At present we are just to say bullish IMHO but the warning signals are evident. It isn't a perfect trade model but is usually a good ''canary in the mine'' signal eg either reduce stake sizing or tighten stops etc until we have a clearer picture FWIW.
    Read the Squawk
    04 August
    usxau usxau
    Nope mate, not interested in the Trumpism at all!
    04 August
    fxtime fxtime
    Trump is an utter muppet IMHO but enjoy the USA anyway :-)
    04 August
    usxau usxau
    Yeap love it too! Great weekend mate and looking forward to next week's trading! :)
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