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Trading strategy
Long-term technically-driven strategies underpinned by indicators/pattern recognition

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2 Followers
Write a Squawk to Rogan
  • 6d
    fxtime fxtime
    Using the same theorems and looking at the USA tech sector we see evidenced a 28% year todate rally. The dollar trade weighted index drops 6% over...
    6d
    fxtime fxtime
    FWIW; Those with a probability bias might be interested about the cable as 1.3220 it breaks the rolling three day trading range which is bullish and if...
    6d
    fxtime fxtime
    Remember to partially correlate inversely your cable trade to the FTSE...it isn't a perfect correlation and really this will not be a swing trade as we have...
  • Article / 10 October 2017 at 13:26 GMT

    Macro Digest: China – the biggest paradigm shift in a century?

    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Macro Digest: China – the biggest paradigm shift in a century?
    Some 2,287 delegates from all across China will gather next week in Beijing for what promises to be an event of historic significance. It has unprecedented implications for us all and for the global economy. What's more, it will start a process that sees an upstart new 'king' depose the one that's held sway in world markets this past century.
    Read the article
  • Squawk / 06 October 2017 at 15:44 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    FWIW the sp500 is reaching rare levels IMHO. The number of continuous close new highs is at a record and the ascending continuous day lows are getting there too. These two scenarios have often presaged a good mean reversion. The risks to the downside are ''LARGE'' compared to a potential further rally. Trade very carefully if you are bullish. personally I prefer the bearish scenario.... :-)
    Read the Squawk
    06 October
    Rogan Rogan
    interesting post....isn't the Fed starting balance sheet normalisation in October?This is what concerns me the most
    06 October
    usxau usxau
    FX, same here, taking the folks for a lovely meal while the market does what ever! :) Wishing you a great weekend too! See you next week!...
    06 October
    fxtime fxtime
    Yeah Rogan you are so right.... that is definitely a tricky act for them to manage.
    Enjoy Sabrina :-)
  • Squawk / 04 October 2017 at 16:21 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    FWIW the DAX appears to be struggling on this rally. It needs to close above and hold above the last wave high (20th June at 12955)....also if we apply the Ice Cream idea see link for details...
    https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/drowning-in-ice-cream-correlations-6867790
    Then we need to be aware that the DAX is due a correction. Finally using rsi2 as filter we are at an extreme range if we apply rsi5 as a momentum filter for a rolling 5 trading days eg one week of trading then that too is displaying over bought.
    If you are long then perhaps tighten your stops.
    Read the Squawk
    04 October
    fxtime fxtime
    FTSE...Similar scenario. RSI5 is near resistance levels of prior moves. We could impulse upwards but i will be looking to fade the move !!
    That said I will...
  • Article / 03 October 2017 at 9:00 GMT

    Seasonal strategies for a bearish October

    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Seasonal strategies for a bearish October
    Markets are consistently buying the dips. Bear traders are mauled repeatedly. The reasoning behind the longest bull rally ever are well documented so what do we do now? Where can we seek a profit and what can be bought which isn't already price 'rich'?
    Read the article
    04 October
    usxau usxau
    Thanks FX what a fantastic article and I will monitor both sectors now carefully! As to October, after every sharp correction there is a recovery, let the...
    04 October
    fxtime fxtime
    Hope you had a good day off Sabrina :-)
    08 October
    zefy zefy
    Great to see fxtime articles returning to TF. As usual, most best stuff!
  • Squawk / 18 September 2017 at 17:13 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    I see Mark Carney is as usual saying to the World before his MPC last week and after the resulting meeting that the World is downplaying the BoE comments for base rate rises and that we should be paying more attention to his warnings. But only an hour ago his latest speech is weak and suggest very slow and gradual base rate rises and likewise ''some'' monetary stimulus withdrawal.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41307167

    This must be the only central bank governor who is remarkably inconsistent with his policies; his speeches and actions. The paucity of policy consistency and real market guidance which is accurate and enacted makes you question how and why did the UK hire him ?
    Read the Squawk
    18 September
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    That's why Canada traded him to the UK-Repayment for the leaky submarines you sold us
    19 September
    fxtime fxtime
    LOL :-)
  • Squawk / 18 September 2017 at 11:11 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Looking at the larger picture for major indices.
    Lets compare Nasdaq QQQ spot to the SP500 spot from low to high / current values on a monthly chart.
    QQQ outstrips the sp500 considerably as per the chart depiction. Regardless if we think this growth is a valid valuation of current markets from extremely depressed markets perhaps we should also ask if the 32% nasdaq rally from Nov 7th todate represents actual growth for now and near dated future valuations especially when the larger sp500 evidences a mere 23% growth over the same period of time ?
    Perhaps we should start looking for a spread trade here ? eg short Nasdaq and long sp500 for a contraction of spread. Clearly nasdaq is the more sensitive stock and reacts faster especially to downward revisions. Also Nasdaq does tend to lead the sp500 so a spread trade will not provide maximal profits but you can skew the trade bias to the long/short bias.
    Read the Squawk
    18 September
    usxau usxau
    I got you now. Thanks for the great explanations. This is really interesting and keen to learn more! Thanks a million to share all your knowledge with...
    18 September
    dominom dominom
    And what would you think about going long UK and short spx? The BOE and Brexit are a bit scary but might be interessting in the long...
    19 September
    fxtime fxtime
    There is a disparity certainly there mainly due to Brexit but you are playing major fundemental shifts and that takes time eg medium term and you will...
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