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  • Squawk / 15 December 2017 at 21:45 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    The stock market at a new record, yield curve flattening, Bitcoin surging..............Just another day in the US financial markets

    Behind the scenes there are a couple of developments worth noting.

    First, the yield on the S&P 500 has been declining while the 2-year Treasury bond yield climbs, closing the big gap that has been in place since the GFC.

    See chart below.

    Some asset allocation models will signal this as justification for a move from equities into bonds.

    Second, the tax bill that looks a done deal to pass thru Congress next week could lead to repatriation of up to $2 trillion of funds US companies are holding offshore. This could lead to a significant dollar shortage in the money markets. The EURUSD cross currency swap basis is moving accordingly, breaking under 100 basis points. It usually drops at year end but this time the move is pronounced and likely to be maintained.

    See chart below

    This could start to have an impact on EURUSD.
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    Treve Treve
    Max, great coverage this week from you! If you possibly have the time (and I can imagine how busy you are trading the markets) it would...
    2y
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Thanks Treve, as always there have been frustrating and testing periods (aplenty) in 2018 but applying stringent money/risk management (with considerable patience and trading discipline)
    has been the...
  • Squawk / 31 October 2017 at 15:13 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Gold trades lower in quiet trading ahead of a whole smörgåsbord of event risk this week. FOMC meeting Wednesday, a potential US Fed chair announcement on Thursday followed by the monthly US job report on Friday are just some of the drivers that the market has to deal with. Adding to that Mueller’s Russia probe and with that increased verbal attacks from the White House.
    Brent crude oil meanwhile continues to battle it out around key resistance at $61/b, the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 to 2016 sell off. The December contract expires today with the new front month of January trading 45 cents lower. Support being provided by tightening markets as seen through rising prompt month backwardation in Brent crude and now almost also in WTI crude oil. EIA's 'Weekly Petroleum Status Report' Wednesday the next focus
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Just out via Reuters: OPEC OIL OUTPUT FALLS IN OCTOBER LED BY IRAQ - REUTERS SURVEY
    OPEC oil output fell this month by 80,000 bpd,...
  • Article / 10 October 2017 at 13:26 GMT

    Macro Digest: China – the biggest paradigm shift in a century?

    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Macro Digest: China – the biggest paradigm shift in a century?
    Some 2,287 delegates from all across China will gather next week in Beijing for what promises to be an event of historic significance. It has unprecedented implications for us all and for the global economy. What's more, it will start a process that sees an upstart new 'king' depose the one that's held sway in world markets this past century.
    Read the article
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