China
Biography
Pauline is a veteran China policy risk analyst specializing in the broader political economy. She runs Asia-analytica, a research consultancy that looks beyond the spreadsheet to identify the wider issues leading to policy change and what that means for investment decisions. She is a Senior Fellow of the CIMB ASEAN Research Institute with a particular interest in ASEAN-China relations.

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  • Article / 06 April 2018 at 10:36 GMT

    US-China: Face war, not trade war

    Managing Director / Asia-analytica Research
    China
    US-China: Face war, not trade war
    The Trump administration’s latest US$100 billion tariffs response to China’s U$50 billion pushback has sent markets into a tailspin. But it is not yet time for bottom fishing. Expect more shocks to stock prices in the days to come.
    Read the article
  • Article / 23 March 2018 at 11:30 GMT

    Just because China can doesn’t mean it will

    Managing Director / Asia-analytica Research
    China
    Just because China can doesn’t mean it will
    Before we all hyperventilate at the thought of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies, let’s look at the forces that might pull the world back from the brink: the globalisation of supply chains, pushback from other trade players, and China’s pragmatic response.
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    1y
    Alan M Alan M
    Hypothetically speaking, if the US and china were to fight it out, can the US under trump actually win? Trump cant even seem to get his cabinet...
    1y
    Pauline Loong Pauline Loong
    Watch out for smoke and mirrors. There is less to Beijing's newly announced US$50 billion tit-for-tat tariffs package than meets the eye. To give three examples from...
  • Article / 27 February 2018 at 12:31 GMT

    China trade risks: beyond steel and aluminium

    Managing Director / Asia-analytica Research
    China
    China trade risks: beyond steel and aluminium
    The latest US tariffs notwithstanding, an outright trade war between China and the US is unlikely. The bigger threat to investment is a continual downturn in China’s growth as trade quarrels take their toll on an economy already on a knife-edge. The good news: Beijing intends to play nice with Washington on trade.
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    1y
    TH_N TH_N
    Thank you.. Anbang is just a beginning...They are more issues to be solved before the grand opening..
    1y
    Jadira F. Norton Jadira F. Norton
    Thank you loads Pauline, nice update on Washington!
  • 1y
    fxtime fxtime
    Trump is pampering to his home market. China IMHO knows this well. Tariffs on washing machines and solar panels will do little to threaten either economy. China...
    1y
    Pauline Loong Pauline Loong
    I am based in Hong Kong. In my part of the world, Americans are seen as, well, really different. If you quote an unusual news item, for...
  • 1y
    fxtime fxtime
    Great to see a new posting from you :-)
    HNY
    1y
    Pauline Loong Pauline Loong
    Great to have you reading my post
  • Article / 14 June 2017 at 13:30 GMT

    UK at the back of the Chinese trade deal queue

    Managing Director / Asia-analytica Research
    China
    UK at the back of the Chinese trade deal queue
    Britain is now a partner of doubtful value to China. Not only has it lost its status as gateway to the huge EU market, its government is now hampered by a loss of mandate. On any free trade deals going with China, Britain will find itself at the back of the queue.
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    2y
    Pauline Loong Pauline Loong
    From far away Asia, what we can't understand is how the Tories could have made such a mess-up. A soft Brexit would have been hard enough to...
    2y
    Cesime Cesime
    Not so sure about some comments in here, I remember when the UK pulled out of the ERM, everybody and his dog were calling for the demise...
    2y
    Pauline Loong Pauline Loong
    I suppose it all depends on the time frame. I have tended to take very short-term views of financial markets - especially currency markets - since...
  • Article / 19 April 2017 at 14:00 GMT

    Making money off 'mystery meat'

    Managing Director / Asia-analytica Research
    China
    Making money off 'mystery meat'
    The good news is that China's economic performance in the first quarter of this year exceeded market expectations. The better news for the savvy investor is the opportunity to stay one step ahead of the herd by delving deeper into the headline numbers.
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  • Article / 22 February 2017 at 15:00 GMT

    China-US trade war — the bark is not the bite

    Managing Director / Asia-analytica Research
    China
    China-US trade war — the bark is not the bite
    China has so far refused to be baited into the first steps down a mutually destructive spiral of a trade war, as events since Trump’s inauguration have shown. But it shouldn't be assumed that the new US president actually wants to start a trade war – there are easier ways of being seen as living up to his China campaign promise. Do not mistake the bark for the bite.
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