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10 Followers
Write a Squawk to Patto
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 20:47 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    NZDUSD jumped 40 pips to 0.7375 on the open after Saturday's New Zealand election showed the ruling National party won the battle, but not yet the war - they need to form a coalition with the mercurial Winston Peters who holds the balance of power. Peters has the option of handing the reins to a Labour/Greens team. Given this uncertainty, NZDUSD is now giving up early gains and is slipping back towards 0.7300

    EURUSD is off from Friday's close of 1.1960 to 1.1900 in early trading after the German election.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Friday at 21:25 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    US stocks traded quietly on Friday ending the day – and the week – close to where they started.

    This bull market is the second longest since since WWII (see chart below)

    Bond yields and USDJPY declined a touch (in unison, as usual). USD was on the back foot as traders re-assessed the new “dot plot” for the fed funds rate (see chart). The three rate hikes projected for next year may not happen when President Trump makes new appointments to the Committee.

    Reducing the balance sheet will probably go ahead regardless, but the ECB and Bank of Japan will be filling the gap (see chart).

    Germany and New Zealand go to the polls this weekend. Both will emerge with coalition governments, but New Zealand’s could be left or right wing. As such NZDUSD is likely to trade actively when the local market opens Monday morning. See here https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/nzdusd-primed-for-big-move-on-election-outcome-8951818
    Read the Squawk
    1d
    Patto Patto
    You were right Max. The result shows that Winston Peter's NF First party can go with either National or Labour/Greens to form the next government. But National...
    1d
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    It's widely known that 1982 to 2000 was a continuous up trending 'bull market' of 18 years.
    23h
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    So the entire world financial markets are now based on central bank balance sheets? Fairly certain real economics are not supposed to work in this manner....
  • Trade view / Thursday at 1:51 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Sell

    Fourth wave selloff is a risk for EURUSD

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    A wave 4 correction is under way for EURUSD, with a potential head-and-shoulders pattern forming. Support is at 1.1840, and the downside potential is towards 1.1715 and 1.1590 over the coming days.
    Read the Trade View
    4d
    Sotha Sotha
    Thanks Max. I also see the support of a channel from 27.03 there also around the neck line levels. Interesting days ahead.
    2d
    Morris Morris
    Target: 50% at 1.1734 and 50% at 1.1616! Max some typos here! Wave 4 target is not from 23.6 to 38.2 of wave 3? And great wave...
    2d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Mathematical inter-Wave relationships hint at developing 4th Wave Symmetrical Triangle.
    My Full analysis & Trading calls in Monday's FX trading report
  • 4d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    The Party which secures the most Votes is not necessarily the Party which becomes the next Govt.
    4d
    Q Q
    I believe the polls are inaccurate due to targeting mostly landlines - which the young, more left-leaning population no longer use. I am picking and hoping for...
    1d
    Patto Patto
    The polls and bookies were right: National 46% Labour 36% Greens 6% NZFirst 7%. But NZ First is in the box seat. The gov't could be National/NZF...
  • Article / 15 September 2017 at 7:00 GMT

    Morning Markets: Asian stocks largely unfazed by N.Korean missile

    Consulting editor / TradingFloor
    Norway
    Morning Markets: Asian stocks largely unfazed by N.Korean missile
    Asia-Pacific equity markets were largely unruffled on Friday by North Korea's second missile launch over Japan in less than three weeks. Meanwhile, the British pound extended gains in year-high territory after the Bank of England sounded a hawkish note on Thursday. Higher-than-expected US CPI weighed on Wall Street stocks on Thursday.
    Read the article
  • 14 September
    nsp nsp
    Hi , i have taken buy entry at 0.7247 and hedge it at 0.7233. can you please advice me the levels that will help me to...
    14 September
    vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111
    Sell now 0.7243 stop 0.7265
    14 September
    Gbpaud Gbpaud
    it did not go well
  • 11 September
    Treve Treve
    Max you're trading analysis is incredible! Many thanks !!!!.
  • Squawk / 08 September 2017 at 21:57 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    The MSCI All Country World Share Market Index fell only 0.20% over the week, despite plenty of potential sell-off triggers. The fact central banks have increased their balance sheets by $2 trillion so far in 2017 will be helping.

    Even the US market, facing Hurricane risk, held steady on Friday.

    So the bull market stretches on, with some way to go to match that of the 1990’s (see chart below).

    Next week Apple holds its product launch, including the iPhone 8, but perhaps some surprises.

    The Biggest Loser of the week was the USD, now ominously breaking key support levels (see chart). The odds of a Dec rate hike have dropped to 27%.

    EURUSD was the main talking point. The ECB seems unconcerned about the rally, but its analysis suggests the cross would need to trend down to 1.05 to meet the inflation target https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/ecb-suggests-eurusd-at-105-to-achieve-inflation-target-8929962
    Read the Squawk
    10 September
    themis themis
    Thank you.
    Would like to have your opinion , on the nzd vs usd short term direction..
    11 September
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    0.7335 met on Friday. Resistance now .7275, .7300 max. to risk test of the .7200 level ahead
    11 September
    themis themis
    Many thanks
  • 08 September
    Patto Patto
    Excellent summary as usual...
    08 September
    fxtime fxtime
    There is an irony here....when Trump was elected everyone expected an infrastructure boom period to boost the economy but Trump being Trump excelled at mismanagement bordering incompetence...
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