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10 Followers
Write a Squawk to Patto
  • Squawk / Friday at 21:41 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    The US stock market closed modestly lower on Friday, giving up some of the previous day’s gains.

    But the record run of low volatility continues: 96% of the trading days this year have seen an intra-day move of less than 1%

    That’s a record (see chart below)

    The action in FX and bond markets hasn’t been anything to write home about either.

    Markets will fool most people most of the time. And most people are underweight/short bonds. This has implications for USD https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/us-inflation-rises-but-traders-doubt-fomc-resolve-9049296

    There’s not much on the economic data calendar next week so bond market moves are likely to set the tome for the FX markets.

    The real danger though is in “junk” bonds. As shown in the chart below, Eurozone junk now yields less than US Treasury bonds
    Read the Squawk
  • 3d
    alki alki
    Entered short @6860 as per your Forecast Max and it is developing very well with one additional unit triggered @6816. Great sho(r)t!
    3d
    Mido Mido
    Thx 4 your analysis, I traded short nzdjpy.
    5h
    marran marran
    im out of this now but im looking for an opportunity to short again
  • 4d
    Treve Treve
    Excellent Article Max
    4d
    Patto Patto
    The Fed's bark has been worse than its bite for some time. Yet it seems only they can lift the yield curve (and thereby boost USD). If...
    4d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Yes, the market sees the Fed as the boy who cries wolf...
  • 13 November
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Closed last week USDJPY with small gain, new Analysis sent to all subscribers with Full Chart Analysis
    13 November
    marran marran
    im in on this trade i still have a small sell on usdjpy max with the stop moved to small profit
    6d
    alki alki
    .7625 support reached.
  • Article / 09 November 2017 at 8:00 GMT

    Morning Markets: Topix hits 26-year record high, then dips

    Senior Editor / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Morning Markets: Topix hits 26-year record high, then dips
    Shares fluctuated wildly in Tokyo today. First they soared to their highest level in 26 years, thanks to the weak yen, and upbeat sentiment on the re-election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Then they took a tumble, on Xi Jinping's comments on boosting China's trade with the US. Xi and Trump signed trade deals worth billions today.
    Read the article
  • Article / 09 November 2017 at 0:15 GMT

    NZDUSD jumps as RBNZ raises inflation forecasts

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    NZDUSD jumps as RBNZ raises inflation forecasts
    With NZDUSD reacting appropriately to the RBNZ's slightly firmer tone, attention now returns to the other side of the cross. The USD will not make much progress to the upside unless financial conditions tighten, but it’s hard to see which component of the index is going to be the trigger.
    Read the article
    09 November
    Treve Treve
    Well said Max
    09 November
    Patto Patto
    Ambrose Pritchard-Evans is a highly regarded commentator on economic/financial matters...
    09 November
    Cesime Cesime
    I agree Ambrose is very highly regard but it wouldn't be the 1st he gets carried away/
  • Trade view / 08 November 2017 at 0:50 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Sell

    Warning signs are flashing for USDJPY

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Key resistance for USDJPY has been reached. There is now bearish price/momentum divergence between US 10-year yields and USDJPY. The risk is of a corrective “shake-out”.
    Read the Trade View
    08 November
    Morten Olby Morten Olby
    Good call today Max!
  • Trade view / 03 November 2017 at 0:17 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Buy

    USDJPY continues to trade bullish upside waves

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    A bullish short-term classical chart pattern is forming for USDJPY. Short-term resistance is at 114.25/50 with short-term support around the mid 113.00s. The upside potential is at 115.50, 117.40, and 117.80/118.60.
    Read the Trade View
  • Article / 02 November 2017 at 22:45 GMT

    How the new Chair could refocus the Fed

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    How the new Chair could refocus the Fed
    The muted reaction to Jerome Powell's appointment as Fed chair suggests markets expect little change under the new regime. But he could stake his own claim to leadership by placing more emphasis on reducing the size of the balance sheet.
    Read the article
    03 November
    Patto Patto
    Yellen will probably resign from the FOMC leaving Trump with another 3 permanent members to appoint. So still an opportunity for the President to make his mark....
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