Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

8 Followers
Write a Squawk to Patto
  • 10h
    Patto Patto
    spoken like a true Saxo salesman Mike ! Interesting Treve's comment they may have 100k +
    10h
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    LOL Patto. But I am not a Saxo salesman. I was merely pointing out that after making some money Trading, it would be nice if your...
    9h
    Treve Treve
    Saxo is in a different class to the "rat bags: like FXCM etc ... TradingFloor is a good example of this!
  • Trade view / Thursday at 3:12 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Buy

    AUDUSD awaiting a major break to the upside

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    AUDUSD shows a bullish Elliott Wave and classical charting structures. There is key chart resistance about 0.7750. And there is considerable potential for AUDUSD to break towards 0.8375 and 0.8750 in the weeks ahead.
    Read the Trade View
    2d
    goldfinger goldfinger
    Good question.
    2d
    themis themis
    ofc its a clear one, to my eyes, at least.....
    2d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    AUDNZD now displays a credible 5-wave sequence from 1.0325 - 1.0745, making it vulnerable to a 50% or 62% corrective retracement
  • Trade view / Monday at 23:03 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Buy

    AUDNZD uptrend developing well

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    AUDNZD is showing bullish Elliott Wave and classical Charting structures. Key chart resistance is at about 1.0765 with the upside potential toward 1.1295.
    Read the Trade View
    4d
    Treve Treve
    Max superb EW analysis and you've really nailed this Cross mate. Well done!
    4d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    thanks Treve
  • Squawk / 17 February 2017 at 21:19 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Quiet trading Friday in the US ahead of a long weekend (markets closed Monday for President’s day)

    The S&P 500 made a small gain, USD index rose (mainly because of a weak EUR); bond yields were down a touch.

    Note in the chart below that the USD index is not reacting to the rising prob. of a March 15 rate hike. Since 1994 the Fed has never moved unless market pricing in the lead up was at least 75%. Today March is priced at only 40%. Even June is marginal.

    But plenty of Fed speakers next week with a chance to “guide” the market.

    Meanwhile Pres.Trump is promising more “tremendous” announcements.

    The second chart shows the US fed funds curve in a global context. Only the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is priced to follow a similar track to higher rates.
    Read the Squawk
    5d
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    I would argue that the PE in the 40's during 2000 was an aberration due to a 1st stage bubble of three being focused into only...
    5d
    seas seas
    I would tend to agree with that. There are new efficiencies and economies of scale to take into account though.
    5d
    seas seas
    And that can feed the monkey.
  • Article / 16 February 2017 at 0:58 GMT

    Markets build a head of steam as the Ides of March looms

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Markets build a head of steam as the Ides of March looms
    The latest inflation update out of the US has seen the market warm to the idea of a rate hike at the FOMC meeting on March 15 and three hikes in total this year. But traders remain wary. For the bond market, any suggestion the Fed’s balance sheet will be allowed to run down will have more impact than a 25 basis point move in the fed funds rate.
    Read the article
    16 February
    order order
    ...till when?
    16 February
    Patto Patto
    Sounds about right.... by then most of the fund managers who went under-weight US shares after Trump's win will have been forced back into the market.
    16 February
    opportunist opportunist
    Seems like central banks (all major ones) constantly supplied liquidity (at least on margin) is much more important than FED funds "signalling" .
  • Trade view / 15 February 2017 at 2:51 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Buy

    USDCHF uptrend under way

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    There's a bullish Elliott Wave structure in USDCHF, with short-term support around 1.0040 and 1.0010 and upside targets of 1.0165 and 1.0345.
    Read the Trade View
    15 February
    touqeer touqeer
    Mate what's ur current view about ur idea.. i am holding buy and pips in profit
    15 February
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Risk of a greater corrective reaction ahead, so Closing position out
    16 February
    vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111
    Hi, Max ! Your opinion on USD/CHF now ?
  • Squawk / 10 February 2017 at 21:21 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    USDJPY saw a brief flurry of excitement today when Donald Trump, in a presser with Japan’s PM Abe, said currency valuation "has to be fair and we will make it fair." Abe looked unimpressed.

    A Federal Reserve Governor said he was retiring. Now 3 vacancies for Trump to fill. Good opportunity for the President to stamp his mark on monetary policy.

    Next week Janet Yellen testifies to Congress & CPI inflation update is released. Expectations are headline will move closer to core (see chart), pleasing Fed.

    Hence, if Yellen so chooses, she could guide the market back to the idea of 3 hikes this year. Recently odds of that have been declining (see chart)

    USDJPY has rallied nicely from mathematical support. My Updated Analysis below.
    Read the Squawk
    10 February
    seas seas
    That was quite a ride during the meeting!
    10 February
    seas seas
    Heard about the 100+ beached whales. Quite a bummer. I wonder what causes that.
    13 February
    seas seas
    We have just broken above the 4hr. cloud after a nice opening rally.
  • 09 February
    Cecio Contrarian Cecio Contrarian
    "But no interest rate rises are forecast until the second half of 2019", do you mean 2018?
    09 February
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    No, not a typo. RBNZ expects to be on hold until Sept 2019. But they say “numerous uncertainties remain”. That’s why the market isn’t taking them too...
    09 February
    Cecio Contrarian Cecio Contrarian
    perfect, thanks a lot. Do you think long EUR NZD is still a good trade?
  • Squawk / 08 February 2017 at 20:06 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    RBNZ decision: RBNZ waxes dovish by delaying anticipated date of reaching 2% inflation (to Q2 2019 from Q42018) and indicating that it thinks the exchange rate needs to drop. As well, there is some apparent relief that house price rises have moderated. Given the steep rise in the kiwi exchange rate of late, this is taken as dovish and could see considerable near term NZD consolidation to the downside.

    Link to full statement: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2017/02/official-cash-rate-unchanged-at-1-75-percent
    Read the Squawk
    08 February
    AlexF AlexF
    Long AUDNZD
    08 February
    Market Predator Market Predator
    @John: I love your on-topic short conclusion squawk, thx! ☺
    09 February
    Patto Patto
    Max McKegg's post on the RBNZ statement reaches the opposite conclusion...........
Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail