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8 Followers
Write a Squawk to Patto
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 21:14 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    President Trump’s inauguration speech saw the USD decline, whilst Bonds
    held steady. My Updated US Stockmarket Analysis below – Still Bullish.

    The Trump rally from election day to inauguration was 6% (refer below).
    The greatest rally came in the lead up to the inauguration of Herbert Hoover
    in 1929 (that didn’t turn out to well in the end!)

    Earlier on the White House web site announced a target of 4% annual GDP growth, double its non-inflationary potential, so only attainable with the sugar pill of substantial fiscal stimulus. This would put Trump on a collision course with Fed Chair Yellen who noted in a speech yesterday that fiscal policy could affect “the appropriate policy path”. More background on that here https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/inflation-update-puts-yellen-on-collision-course-with-trump-8401544

    Neither protagonist wants a higher USD, yet both are setting out on a path to achieve it
    Read the Squawk
    10h
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Patto, just one of my long time subscribers weighing-in.
    10h
    Patto Patto
    what's your call on the S&P 500 ? Nobody trades the Transports ..........
    10h
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    welcome to contact me for additional advice, my contact details under Bio
  • 2d
    Treve Treve
    excellent article Max!
    2d
    Patto Patto
    Yes, good work. Looks like Trump will have to watch the Fed like a hawk. They could get in his way...
  • 3d
    Treve Treve
    Max very interesting analysis, thanks
    2d
    seas seas
    Looks like we are getting there. 425 would be below the cloud though- not sure if it will get there tonight.
    2d
    seas seas
    I'm in at 840. Good luck all.
  • Article / Monday at 13:00 GMT

    Trump has a history of not delivering

    Managing editor, TradingFloor.com / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Trump has a history of not delivering
    Global equities have been on an upward trajectory ever since November 8 fueled by president-elect Donald Trump's pledge for a $1 trillion financial stimulus package, but if he doesn't deliver, the consequences could be severe. Alas, history is not on his side.
    Read the article
    3d
    Krunil48 Krunil48
    Thanks Martin for your answer, the future seems quite uncertain at the moment. I wonder, how did the world get itself into this almighty mess. The debt...
    3d
    Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
    Sadly I think you've hit the nail on the head and it is the injustices that spilled out of the great financial crisis with not enough of...
    2d
    fxtime fxtime
    The market fear index (the VIX) used by option traders throughout the World seems to be acquiring a new monicker....The Trumpdex as a fear measure value. The...
  • 3d
    Shamnighty Shamnighty
    Hi Max!

    Thanks for the trade idea! Worked out like a charm!
    3d
    Alex Balus Alex Balus
    Thanks for idea Max. Super accurate hit!
    3d
    Treve Treve
    Max you've Nailed this! great advice
  • Squawk / 13 January 2017 at 21:07 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Friday 13th was no hindrance for the FTSE which closed higher for the 14th day in a row: a record.

    But the US stock market limped into the long weekend with more sideways action: the 1.4% high/low range over the last month is the lowest in history.

    Calm before the storm perhaps........

    Next week’s main event will be the ECB meeting Thursday. Consider the Bloomberg chart below. According to the Taylor rule (where the policy rate should be set relative to developments in inflation, growth etc) the ECB should be 6.2%. Indeed, as the chart shows, pre GFC the policy rate was usually *higher” than that suggested by the rule. Something’s gotta give; the spread can’t keep rising.

    Meanwhile EURUSD and USDJPY remain under the spell of rate differentials https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/record-shorts-in-bond-market-stall-usd-rally-8384222?int_cmpid=TF_email_trader_i_follow_posts_article
    Read the Squawk
    5d
    seas seas
    So the ECB should give some rate guidance Thursday. Would they go ahead a raise without warning? It looks as though some of a raise has already...
    5d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    The ECB has left itself plenty of room to manoeuvre by saying the asset purchases will stay in place until December or beyond if necessary but “in...
  • Trade view / 12 January 2017 at 1:05 GMT
    Medium term

    Anticipating the next opportunity for USDCHF

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    The US dollar’s correction is in its final stages. From an Elliott Wave perspective, USDCHF is still interpreted to be undergoing a complex corrective structure from its mid-December peak of 1.0345. Support is at 1.0025/1.0000 with the upside target at 1.0600.
    Read the Trade View
    3d
    Alex Balus Alex Balus
    Hi Max ! Isn`t it now the time to try this trade? What is your opinion on last USD correction?
    3d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    welcome to contact me for my daily trading forecasts re USD
  • Article / 11 January 2017 at 23:11 GMT

    Record shorts in bond market stall USD rally

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Record shorts in bond market stall USD rally
    Donald Trump’s press conference ended up being much ado about nothing. A quiet data period is ahead but by next Wednesday’s US inflation update some of the record shorts in Treasuries may have been cleared, allowing the bond market to return to centre stage.
    Read the article
  • 10 January
    Cat Cat
    Useful trade view. Agree with the post.
    10 January
    Cat Cat
    What are your thoughts on GBP?
    10 January
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    just despatched my GBP trading forecast to subscribers, welcome to request a copy
  • Squawk / 06 January 2017 at 21:13 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Close but no cigar.......In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial average got within whisker of 20000 a couple of times but pulled back from each attempt (although some retail platforms may claim the magic number was hit at some stage)

    Earlier in the day, the employment report had provided enough ammunition to propel bond yields and USD higher. As shown in the charts below, the December jobs added number (the last under the stewardship of President Obama) was good enough.

    Meanwhile wages growth beat expectations.
    Read the Squawk
    06 January
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Irregular correction completed just above 115.00, Updated Forecast and Analysis on Monday to all my Subscribers
    08 January
    Morris Morris
    Max very interesting that the graph you posted "Paychecks get Bigger" taking into the highest and lowest points and applying Fibonacci retracements, the 2.9 is 61.8%! Could...
    08 January
    Morris Morris
    Max a wave count from wave 4 underway?So as we can see how far we are from top!
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