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4 Followers
Write a Squawk to Pandorra
  • Squawk / Wednesday at 13:05 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil trading close to unchanged after reaching a one-month high earlier. This was in response to a bullish inventory report from the API last night and news that Opec and non-Opec producers are getting close to agreeing a nine-month cut extension. Having seen the market recover 17% from the May 5 low further upside can now be difficult to achieve unless Opec surprises with even tougher measures. Most of the rally has been driven by short-covering from funds having sold oil aggressively up until a week ago. Funds who bought aggressively following the November deal got hurt during Q1 when the cuts failed to boost the price. On that basis a wait and see approach could emerge with decision makers wanting to see support from hard data before jumping back in.
    First up however the weekly report from the EIA with oil and fuel inventories both expected to fall.
    Read the Squawk
    3d
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    This comment has been redacted
    3d
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Relative subdued market reaction with the focus firmly on Vienna and Opec. Crude oil inventories exceeded expectations on lower imports and a pick up in refinery demand....
  • Squawk / 17 May 2017 at 12:29 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil has shrugged off the negative impact of the surprise stock build reported by the API yesterday. Later on the market will be focusing on the Iranian election on Friday and the Opec meeting on May 25. With a nine-months extension almost priced in the pressure is back on Opec to deliver. However rising production from Libya, Nigeria and US combined with demand growth concerns is likely to limit upside until data shows impact of cuts.
    But first up we have EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 1430 GMT. Last week it helped kick of the latest rally which since then has reached 5% for WTI and 7% for RBOB Gasoline.
    Traders bullish reaction last week were driven by the bigger-than-expected drop in crude stocks, production below recent averages and a drop in imports from key Opec members. The same data will be in focus today.
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    17 May
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Crude oil trading 1.2% higher following the report. Crude stocks did fall thereby going against the API findings yesterday. Production dropped 9k b/d due a 21k reduction...
    17 May
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
  • Squawk / 17 May 2017 at 10:49 GMT
    Hi master Ole.
    Would you please share your thoughts on live cattle futures. Has it enough power to deliver new one wave above current highs, or enough is enough. Net long position still looks pretty good.
    Thank you.
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    17 May
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Hi Pandorra. I do not follow the livestock sector that closely and have no strong view.
    Some observations:
    The speculative net-long which hit the third highest on record a...
    17 May
    Pandorra Pandorra
    Thank you so much, Ole. Looks like Red Winter Wheat was on the same way on earlier May.
  • 17 May
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Gold trading above its 200-day moving average as it goes hand in hand with the stronger JPY.
  • Squawk / 15 May 2017 at 14:02 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Cotton has traded limit up at 87.18 cents/lb for a second day after hitting the maximum allowed price movement of 5 cents. Cotton has rallied by 14% since last week when the WASDE report reported strong export demand thereby leaving supplies squeezed ahead of the next harvest.
    The FT today have quoted brokers warning that the tumult may not be over as mills have yet to fix the price of millions of bales they ordered from merchants for delivery by July. Morgan Stanley reports that the 'cotton on call' report from the ICE exchange estimates that some 4.62 million bales of cotton or 44,400 futures lots have no price agreement. A delivery of this magnitude is more than the available stock of 3.2m bales being estimated by the USDA to be available at that stage.
    Funds held a net-long of 99k lots in week to May 9. The current problem is the commercial net-short which stood at 174k lots last week.

    $FT link: https://www.ft.com/content/34bf621e-3851-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23
    Read the Squawk
  • 15 May
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Another sign that the current oil rally is being led by short-covering. Hedge funds cut the combined bullish oil bet in WTI and Brent by 72,000 lots...
  • Squawk / 14 May 2017 at 15:02 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Fund positioning in IMM currency futures, financials and commodities covering the week ending May 9. Additional updates on twitter @ole_s_hansen and here on TradingFloor Monday.
    Read the Squawk
    14 May
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Hello Ole, good idea to add green line with BCIndex. I support it!
  • 12 May
    Danno22 Danno22
    As you predicted Ole nice break through after weak pullback!
    14 May
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Thank you.
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