Canada
Trading strategy
I use a combination of technical and fundamental studies to determine short term trading strategies ( usually less than 1 month)
Biography
Michael O’Neill has held senior positions at many Tier 1 banks in his 30+ years in FX markets which included trading, sales, and derivatives while managing highly profitable teams. He is the author of the “Trade of the Day”, a short term, actionable FX strategy and a daily market commentary. All are available at www.loonieviews.net
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Write a Squawk to Michael O'Neill
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 21:00 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    US Wrap: Trade jitters and Opec

    NY Focus: FX markets were lethargic. Perhaps it’s the heat and humidity across a broad swath of US and Canada or maybe the Fifa World Cup, but whatever the reason, traders weren’t interested. The US dollar closed in New York with small losses against the Swiss franc and Euro while posting small gains against the commodity currency bloc. The Japanese yen and British pound closed nearly unchanged.

    EURUSD appears to be in consolidation mode after racking up big losses late last week. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he was still at “three rate increases for the year.” He also said that among his contacts economic growth optimism has faded and been replaced with concerns about trade. EURUSD bounced inside a 1.15945-1.1623 band.
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  • Squawk / Yesterday at 21:00 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    US Wrap: Part 2 Sterling didn’t get any traction in either direction, trading in a 1.3228-1.3261 range. Traders are wary ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy meeting and Brexit issues. The British House of Lords rejected Prime Minister May’s plan to give parliament a “meaningful vote.”

    USDJPY did not have much enthusiasm for a rally. Prices struggled in a 110.38-110.57 range with gains capped the risk of trade war fueled risk aversion demand and soft US Treasury yields.

    Oil prices recovered a large chunk of Friday’s losses that occurred after reports that Russia wanted Opec to agree to a substantial production increase. Iran said they would block the move. Goldman Sachs analysts predicted higher prices driven by falling inventories. They are not changing their peak Brent forecast of $82.50/barrel.

    Trade concerns undermined Wall Street. The NASDAQ closed unchanged while the SPX and DJIA were in the red.
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  • Squawk / Yesterday at 21:00 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    US Wrap: Part 3 Tuesday Focus: There is potential for EURUSD volatility from speeches by ECB’ President Mario Draghi and Chief Economist Peter Praet but not from economic data. EURUSD may continue to digest last week’s losses in a 1.1540-1.1640 range
    Chart: EURUSD
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  • 4d
    fxtime fxtime
    Great piece Mike ...thx for the major events next week too :-)
    4d
    MSO MSO
    Thanks Mike, very helpful. Last man standing, but standing strong ! Have a great weekend
    4d
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Thanks guys. Have a good weekend.
  • Squawk / Thursday at 21:20 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    US Wrap: SMOKING! EURUSD Trashed

    NY Focus: The ECB turned hawkish for a nan-second today. They announced that quantitative easing would end in December 2018. EURUSD jumped to 1.1848 from 1.1815. Euro bulls were smiling.

    Then ECB President Mario Draghi put the hammer down and crushed the Euro. Uber-dove Draghi said, “we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged, and we expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure that the evolution of inflation remains aligned with our current expectations of a sustained adjustment path.”

    EURUSD collapsed. It was trading at 1.1620 when Europe went home and dropped further in the New York afternoon, finishing the session at 1.1578.

    If a picture is worth a thousand words, check out the attached chart..It shows major G-10 currency ranges against the US dollar, from the New York open ( 1000 GMT) to the 2000 GMT closing level (New York close)
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  • Squawk / Thursday at 21:16 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    US Wrap: Part 2 Sterling traders got sideswiped and became victims of the ECB carnage. GBPUSD was just above its highest level for the week (1.3445) boosted by better than expected UK Retail Sales.

    Then along came Draghi. The GBPUSD collapse was just as spectacular as the Euro collapse. GBPUSD plunged to 1.3260 in early Asia trading. GBPUSD sentiment is still bearish.

    USDJPY’s rally was not that impressive. Prices peaked around the 110.60 resistance area. Further gains will be difficult if US Treasury yields trade softly. The 10-year Treasury yield lost 1.41%, and the Long bond lost 1.48%

    The Canadian dollar led the commodity currency bloc lower. Higher USD interest rates and stagnant monetary policies in Canada, Australia and New Zealand weighed on the currency pairs.
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  • Squawk / Thursday at 21:16 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    US Wrap: Part 3 Friday Focus: Friday’s focus will be triaged. Wounded traders will likely hug the sidelines while winning traders may take the opportunity to lock in some profits. President Trump is rumoured to be announcing new sanctions against China on Friday, or early next week.

    The USDX has resistance at 94.90-95.10 which has capped US dollar rallies since July 2017. If it continues to hold, it suggests the US dollar is vulnerable to a correction.
    Chart: USDX Daily
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  • Squawk / Wednesday at 21:08 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    US Wrap: FOMC: Two down and two to go

    NY Focus: The Fed hiked rates. No surprise there. The statement was upbeat, and the Fed tweaked the dot-plot forecast. It looks like there will be two more rate increases still to come this year and a press conference after every meeting., starting in 2019. That caused a bit of furor. FX markets reacted predictably, and the US dollar soared on the news

    EURUSD opened at 1.1754 and drifted to 1.1790 into the FOMC meeting. Traders may have been expecting a more benign statement and more concerned about Thursday’s ECB meeting. The statement was released, and the single currency plummeted to 1.1724 and then bounced to 1.1800. The dot-plot forecast may have had something to do with the rally. Only eight Committee members favoured four rate hikes in 2018, while seven preferred just three.
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  • Squawk / Wednesday at 21:08 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    US Wrap: Part 2 GBPUSD opened at 1.3338, its overnight low seen after mixed to soft UK economic data. Sterling managed to recover all its post data losses and took out the overnight before stalling at 1.3386 at FOMC time. Its collapse to 1.3320 was fully reversed, and GBPUSD finished the day with a small gain.

    USDJPY rallied to 110.83 and then retreated. To 110.28 at the close. The failure of 10-year Treasury yields to rally above 3.0% and their subsequent decline to 2.974, capped USDJPY gains
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  • Squawk / Wednesday at 21:07 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    US Wrap: Part 3 The Canadian dollar finished with a small gain after a large swing in a 1.2957-1.3049 range. The Antipodean currencies suffered a similar fat but closed nearly unchanged.

    Oil Prices got a boost after the EIA announced a 4.143 million crude oil drawdown. The gains were muted ahead of next week’s Opec meeting and the risk that production caps are scrapped.

    Thursday Focus: UK Retail Sales data will keep GBPUSD traders busy at the start of European trading, but the real focus will be on the ECB meeting. Arguably, the Feds upbeat outlook and the higher dot-plot forecast was a bit of surprise. Perhaps Mario Draghi will return the favour. Markets are expecting an announcement as to when QE will end. Recent weak economic reports and a rigidly dovish Draghi may disappoint them, sending EURUSD to its recent low.

    Chart: EURUSD 30 minute
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