New Zealand
Age 57
Trading strategy
I utilise a combination of technical indicators in conjunction with classical charting and Elliott Wave Analysis and most importantly 31
years of FX Trading experience.
My full Daily FX Trading Service is received by Institutions, Banks, Hedge Funds and Individuals the
world-over. If interested in my FX Trading Service, email me at : max@enterprise.net.nz
Biography
I hold a Master of Commerce (Hons) and have been an FX trading professional since 1985; heading Bank of New Zealand's Technical Analysis Unit from 1985 - 1993 and then setting-up in business on my own in 1993; securing well in excess of 100 Institutional, Bank & Hedge Fund subscribers as well as thousands of Individual subscribers in more than 40 different countries. My Service to Individuals is via Email (max@enterprise.net.nz) whilst to Institutions and Banks my real-time work can be found on the ThomsonReuters global network.

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1008 Followers
Write a Squawk to Max McKegg
  • Squawk / Friday at 21:19 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Quiet trading Friday in the US ahead of a long weekend (markets closed Monday for President’s day)

    The S&P 500 made a small gain, USD index rose (mainly because of a weak EUR); bond yields were down a touch.

    Note in the chart below that the USD index is not reacting to the rising prob. of a March 15 rate hike. Since 1994 the Fed has never moved unless market pricing in the lead up was at least 75%. Today March is priced at only 40%. Even June is marginal.

    But plenty of Fed speakers next week with a chance to “guide” the market.

    Meanwhile Pres.Trump is promising more “tremendous” announcements.

    The second chart shows the US fed funds curve in a global context. Only the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is priced to follow a similar track to higher rates.
    Read the Squawk
    19h
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    I would argue that the PE in the 40's during 2000 was an aberration due to a 1st stage bubble of three being focused into only...
    9h
    seas seas
    I would tend to agree with that. There are new efficiencies and economies of scale to take into account though.
    8h
    seas seas
    And that can feed the monkey.
  • Article / Thursday at 8:00 GMT

    Morning Markets: March rate-hike odds jump to 44%

    Managing editor, TradingFloor.com / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Morning Markets: March rate-hike odds jump to 44%
    The possibility that the Fed might move on interest rates next month jumped on very strong inflation data out of the US and helped spur some safe-haven buying overnight, but with the Trump factor ever present, is May still the likelier bet for the next move in the cycle?
    Read the article
  • Article / Thursday at 0:58 GMT

    Markets build a head of steam as the Ides of March looms

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Markets build a head of steam as the Ides of March looms
    The latest inflation update out of the US has seen the market warm to the idea of a rate hike at the FOMC meeting on March 15 and three hikes in total this year. But traders remain wary. For the bond market, any suggestion the Fed’s balance sheet will be allowed to run down will have more impact than a 25 basis point move in the fed funds rate.
    Read the article
    4d
    order order
    ...till when?
    4d
    Patto Patto
    Sounds about right.... by then most of the fund managers who went under-weight US shares after Trump's win will have been forced back into the market.
    4d
    opportunist opportunist
    Seems like central banks (all major ones) constantly supplied liquidity (at least on margin) is much more important than FED funds "signalling" .
  • Trade view / Wednesday at 2:51 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Buy

    USDCHF uptrend under way

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    There's a bullish Elliott Wave structure in USDCHF, with short-term support around 1.0040 and 1.0010 and upside targets of 1.0165 and 1.0345.
    Read the Trade View
    4d
    touqeer touqeer
    Mate what's ur current view about ur idea.. i am holding buy and pips in profit
    4d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Risk of a greater corrective reaction ahead, so Closing position out
    4d
    vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111
    Hi, Max ! Your opinion on USD/CHF now ?
  • Trade view / 13 February 2017 at 0:48 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Buy

    Upside potential ahead for AUDCHF

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Bullish multi-month Ascending Triangle is occurring in AUDCHF. The short-term supports are at about 0.7675 and 0.7640/0.7615 - maximum. Upside potential is towards 0.7825 and 0.8160 over the coming weeks
    Read the Trade View
    5d
    izwansamba izwansamba
    audjpy or audchf? cause you mention AUDJPY seen as buy
    5d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Editor's typo! AUDCHF ofcourse ... trade already actioned
    2d
    blue_67 blue_67
    Is the trade still valid, we've seen a profit and then gone down again to meet the first stop ad 0.7650 en now again rising?
  • Squawk / 10 February 2017 at 21:21 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    USDJPY saw a brief flurry of excitement today when Donald Trump, in a presser with Japan’s PM Abe, said currency valuation "has to be fair and we will make it fair." Abe looked unimpressed.

    A Federal Reserve Governor said he was retiring. Now 3 vacancies for Trump to fill. Good opportunity for the President to stamp his mark on monetary policy.

    Next week Janet Yellen testifies to Congress & CPI inflation update is released. Expectations are headline will move closer to core (see chart), pleasing Fed.

    Hence, if Yellen so chooses, she could guide the market back to the idea of 3 hikes this year. Recently odds of that have been declining (see chart)

    USDJPY has rallied nicely from mathematical support. My Updated Analysis below.
    Read the Squawk
    10 February
    seas seas
    That was quite a ride during the meeting!
    10 February
    seas seas
    Heard about the 100+ beached whales. Quite a bummer. I wonder what causes that.
    13 February
    seas seas
    We have just broken above the 4hr. cloud after a nice opening rally.
  • 09 February
    Cecio Contrarian Cecio Contrarian
    "But no interest rate rises are forecast until the second half of 2019", do you mean 2018?
    09 February
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    No, not a typo. RBNZ expects to be on hold until Sept 2019. But they say “numerous uncertainties remain”. That’s why the market isn’t taking them too...
    09 February
    Cecio Contrarian Cecio Contrarian
    perfect, thanks a lot. Do you think long EUR NZD is still a good trade?
  • Trade view / 05 February 2017 at 22:47 GMT
    Short term
    /
    Buy

    Plenty of upside potential ahead for AUDNZD

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    This is a big week for central banks downunder, with both the RBA and RBNZ issuing statements. Meanwhile there are signs of a bullish Elliott Wave structure for AUDNZD, with support in the low 1.0400s (or in the late 1.0300s at a maximum) , and resistance at 1.0570, 1.0650 and at the pivotal 1.0765 level. And there is upside potential toward 1.0765 and above.
    Read the Trade View
    07 February
    seas seas
    Hopefully the rate decision works in our favor.
    07 February
    Cecio Contrarian Cecio Contrarian
    It's still on?
    07 February
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    yes, a bounce now quite likely
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