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Write a Squawk to matsuri
  • Squawk / Sunday at 9:49 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    COT on commodities, IMM currency futures, bonds and stock index futures covering the week to January 9. Update to follow on Monday
    Read the Squawk
    2d
    Logich Logich
    How come the price have dropped in Coffee, even though the record short have gone down over the last couple of weeks? And also this week longs...
    2d
    matsuri matsuri
    does it look like long trap in EUR and oil?
  • Article / 01 December 2017 at 14:13 GMT

    WCU: Oil firm after realpolitik trumps rivalry in Vienna

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    WCU: Oil firm after realpolitik trumps rivalry in Vienna
    Crude oil held steady after Opec and Russia showed unity and extended production cuts until the end of 2018. Gold's November trading range was the tightest since 1999 while industrial metals retraced on continued worries that the outlook for Chinese growth and demand may underwhelm.
    Read the article
    01 December
    matsuri matsuri
    still my opinion: the higher it goes the harder it falls. At the moment there is positive sentimnt on the market but it can change soon since...
  • 24 November
    matsuri matsuri
    OPEC meeting agenda is for 3 hours so it seems to be significant consensus between producers, however Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak says that "Russia is ready...
  • Squawk / 22 November 2017 at 8:03 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil trading higher with WTI extending its gains to highest since July 2015. WTI is leading the rally with prompt spreads almost flipping into backwardation. A bigger than expected weekly stock draw reported by the API last night and not least an ongoing pipeline disruption from Canada to the U.S. are the main drivers.
    According to Reuters TransCanada Corp said it will cut deliveries by at least 85 percent on its 590k bpd Keystone crude pipeline through the end of November. The pipeline, which links Alberta’s oil sands to U.S. refineries, was shut last week after a 5,000-barrel spill in South Dakota.
    Read the Squawk
    22 November
    matsuri matsuri
    I am of the opinion that the higher it goes the harder it falls...still short on WTI
    22 November
    AIRLINE AIRLINE
    Me too, Matsuri.

    Crude is fully priced in with regards to OPEC's production cuts and fundamental issues.

    I think OPEC has no choice to continue its production cuts. ...
  • Article / 10 November 2017 at 13:58 GMT

    WCU: Commodities gains led by strong energy sector

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    WCU: Commodities gains led by strong energy sector
    The Bloomberg Energy Index reached a 10-month high as the sector continues to attract attention and demand. The approach of winter saw natural gas break out of its months-long range, while crude oil rose for a fifth consecutive week with heightened geopolitical risks being the main driver of the latest gains.
    Read the article
    13 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Gold remains stuck and the lack of upside momentum carried the risk of long liquidation below $1280/oz. Without much news to support the move this was what...
    13 November
    carlosdemarch carlosdemarch
    great report Ole! keep it up
  • Article / 06 November 2017 at 8:26 GMT

    COT: Oil longs most stretched since March

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    COT: Oil longs most stretched since March
    Hedge funds continued the rotation out of grains and metals into energy during the week to October 31. The combined net-long across oil and products jumped to their highest since February, especially driven by strong oil demand. Outside oil and products major reductions were seen in natgas, silver, corn and wheat while sugar and cattle were bought.
    Read the article
    06 November
    matsuri matsuri
    "this is madness" - it is how I can describe the situation on oil. I am waiting for the trigger to bring oil down back towards $50...
  • Squawk / 12 July 2017 at 14:24 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil squeezing higher on continued short-covering ahead of EIA's weekly inventory report. Last nights big draw from the API combined with last weeks EIA draw of 6.3m barrels has raised speculation that this could be the beginning of the rebalancing. Also keep and eye on imports/exports, gasoline demand and production estimates for further clues whether the price slump since Q1 has undermined output growth.
    Results and comments will be posted below
    Read the Squawk
    12 July
    AIRLINE AIRLINE
    Matsuri, the API and especially the EIA figures are the most important and transparent statistics released for the oil market.

    The Opec report is mostly very...
    13 July
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    Yes, it was possible to buy clq7 after API release at 45.8 and sell 46.2 before EIA release, of course with full mind of fear and no...
    17 July
    AIRLINE AIRLINE
    Hey Vladimir M, perhaps with some nerves and pain as well...
  • 06 July
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
    06 July
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    US oil production has remained flat for the past five weeks now. Still to early to conclude anything but lower oil prices may have begun to impact...
    06 July
    matsuri matsuri
    oil lower by $ 0.5 than before the data. but it means for me only one thing, we should expect a spike in prices in the coming...
  • Article / 03 July 2017 at 8:00 GMT

    COT: More commodity selling as short-covering risk rises — #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Hedge funds' selling of commodities continued in the week to June 27 despite seeing early signs that fundamentals are beginning to turn more favourable. Extended short positions in oil, soybeans, coffee and sugar helped drive these futures higher during the week. Gold and silver remained under pressure as traders reacted to hawkish central bank comments.
    Read the article
    03 July
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Funds cut bullish Brent crude oil bets by 29,000 lots to 200,000 lots, a 17-month low in week to June 27. The gross-short hit fresh record.
    Total oil...
    03 July
    matsuri matsuri
    great,waiting for short covering rally. this week would be good opportunity to this. US market closed on 4th. some traders will have holidays by end of week,...
    03 July
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Hello Ole. Is it possible to assume except short covering on Oil also to return of active Bulls, because of driving season? I believe this might be...
  • 09 June
    Morris Morris
    Mr Hansen I want to believe that you are referring to $1265 not $1165? Yes Fibs are important but not exclusive. To succeed one needs an extra...
    09 June
    Vincent.Z Vincent.Z
    Today it got support at $1265, so is it a short-term buying opportunity Ole?
    15 June
    Morris Morris
    Vincent have you bought as per Fibs?
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