Denmark Denmark
Trading strategy
I track Saxo Bank's USD-denominated FX World Carry portfolio using 2 x leverage. This portfolio is one of four available. More information on the four portfolios can be found here: http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/introducing-saxo-bank-fx-carry-trade-805549152
Biography
Mads Koefoed is Head of Macro Strategy at Saxo Bank. Mads prefers a quantitative approach when analysing the global economy, but also stresses the importance of the debt cycle for understanding today’s macro-economic developments. Mads publishes daily comments on TradingFloor.com and is a regular commentator on Saxo TV and other broadcast media. He is a key contributor to the bank’s quarterly outlook as well as co-author of the strategy team’s trading models and Trade Navigator.

Mads holds a master's degree in economics (cand.polit.) from The University of Copenhagen, where his focus was on finance and econometrics.

Disclaimer

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853 FOLLOWERS
Write a Squawk
  • Squawk / 3 hours ago
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    And now for the weak data: US initial jobless claims rose 329,000 last week vs. 315,000 expected while the prior figure was revised 1,000 higher to 305,000. Continuing claims dropped to 2.68 million from 2.751mn.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 3 hours ago
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Boom! US durable goods orders rose 2.6% m/m in March vs. 2% expected and 2.1% prior. Core orders (ex transportation) climbed 2% vs. 0.6% and 0.1% prior.
    Even more importantly for GDP capital goods shipments climbed 1% as expected while February was revised to 0.7% from 0.5%. And key to further (GDP) investment capital goods orders ex. defense and aircrafts jumped 2.2% vs. 1.5% expected while February was revised to -1.1% from -1.3%. Solid, solid report...
    Read the Squawk
    3h
    Ken Veksler Ken Veksler
    Surely a 2 way street, bad weather can only ever improve, right?
    3h
    fxtime fxtime
    LOL
    3h
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    At least the spring holidays are getting blamed for the weak jobless claims print, so we do have some sort of normalcy around here...
  • Squawk / 4 hours ago
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    GM reports Q1 EPS of $0.29 vs. $0.04 expected.

    Bloomberg:
    *GM 1Q REV. $37.4B, EST. $37.9B
    *GM SAYS N. AMERICA, INTERNATIONAL OPS PERFORMING AS PLANNED
    *GM SAYS EUROPE, CHINA PERFORMING BETTER THAN PLAN
    *GM SAYS S. AMERICA WEAKER PERFORMANCE DUE TO VENEZUELA, BRAZIL
    *OPEL CEO OPTIMISTIC GM EUROPE RESULTS TO IMPROVE THROUGH 2014
    *OPEL CEO SAYS 2014 WILL BE `CRUCIAL MILESTONE' TO BREAKING EVEN
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 4 hours ago
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    UPS reports Q1 EPS of $0.98 vs. $1.08 expected; sees full-year EPS at low end of guidance range.

    Bloomberg:
    *UPS SEES YEAR EPS AT LOW END OF $5.05-$5.30, EST. $5.19
    *UPS: 1Q U.S. DOMESTIC REVENUE INCREASED 2.6% TO $8.5 BILLION
    *UPS SAYS WEATHER WEIGHED ON OPERATING PROFIT BY ABOUT $200M
    *UPS: 1Q INTERNATIONAL SEGMENT REVENUE IMPROVED 5.0% :UPS US
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 4 hours ago
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Caterpillar reports Q1 EPS of $1.61 vs. $1.23 expected, an upward surprise of 30.9%, and boosts full-year guidance to $6.10 from $5.86. Revenue $13.61 billion vs. $13.11 expected.

    Bloomberg:
    *CAT DOESN'T SEE RUSSIA SITUATION MATERIALLY IMPACT YR VIEW
    *CAT SAYS RUSSIA ECONOMY WAS ALREADY PERFORMING POORLY
    *CAT EXPECTS CONTINUED DECREASES IN MINING CAPEX FOR EQUIPMENT
    *CAT SEES LOWER DEALER DELIVERIES ABOUT OFFSET BY INVENTORY
    *CAT SEES RESOURCE INDUSTRIES' SALES TO BE DOWN ABOUT 20%
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 5 hours ago
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    The Turkish central bank has just announced that it keeps all three key policy rates unchanged. This implies that the benchmark repo rate is unchanged at 10% while the lending and borrowing rates are 12% and 8% respectively.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 7 hours ago
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Spain has just completed a EUR 2.65 billion auction of 10-year government bonds. The average yield was 3.059% with a bid-to-cover of 2.31. This is the lowest yield on record, the previous low was 3.165% back in September 2005.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 8 hours ago
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    German IFO better than expected in April. The business climate index climbed to 111.2 from 110.7 last month while consensus had expected 110.4.
    The current assessment index was mostly unchanged at 115.3 from 115.2 and 115.6 expected, so the improvement in the headline index came from the expectations index, which rose to 107.3 from 106.4. Consensus had predicted a drop to 105.8.
    Overall a solid report made even better by the fact that it is the expectations index, which is the main driver.
    Read the Squawk
    7h
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    The pickup in expectations is particularly nice, as the construction sector's expectations are going through a negative seasonal patch. Here's the link to the press release: https://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/facts/Survey-Results/Business-Climate/Geschaeftsklima-Archiv/2014/Geschaeftsklima-20140424.html...
  • Squawk / 9 hours ago
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    French manufacturing confidence declined to 100 in April as expected. However the drop came about as a result of an upward revision to March from 100 to 101.

    Overall business confidence also declined to 94 vs. 96 expected and 95 prior as the order outlook weakened while inventories rose. Not a good report.
    Read the Squawk
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