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Followers
Write a Squawk to Macronomics
  • 2y
    Macronomics Macronomics
    Interesting post Steen but Alan Turing should not be considered as the father of the computer. This assumption is wrong. Charles Babbage originated the concept of a...
    2y
    Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
    ty Martin - I stand corrected :-)
  • Squawk / 23 February 2017 at 7:16 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Steen’s Comment Macro:

    UBS’s piece is important read and rhymes with our view that global cyclical factors is peaking now.

    Inflation YoY impact from energy will come down from >80% positive to flat between now and end of May (and yes spill-over happens especially into macro narrative)

    Fed is unlikely to move early into massive short exposure in fixed income – the FI world split into massive bulls and bears, with no middle ground – COT report shown below from Ole S Hansen tells its own story:


    Source: Ole S Hansen and COT report

    Each BASIS POINT of move in rates is equivalent to 159 mio. US Dollar changing hands!

    Finally we have major event risk between now and mid-March. This means we have to be extreme vigilant vis-à-vis risk and small changes to underlying volatility

    I remain overweight US FI on slow-down as outlined above, plus net short dollar now mainly vs. Gold and GBP – yesterday I added short WTI Crude against peak in growth being in place.

    Steen
    Read the Squawk
    1y
    nickeon nickeon
    The great topics and finding the essential methods about global cyclical programs and reporting the exposure hands. The outlined https://ukessaysreviews.com/britishessaywriters-co-uk-review/ tips and useful services for massive short...
  • Squawk / 25 November 2016 at 14:49 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    High Yield Warning ... from my favorite TECH Indicator..

    The Trump-Mania seems to have peaked on growth and inflation - reality is still same as post the November election, hence high chance of reduction in growth balance of 2016 - I have initiated long recommendation from this level in 30Y which corresponds roughly to 153'09 in ZBZ6 Future.
    Safe travels
    Read the Squawk
    3y
    Morris Morris
    Monthly all confirms bearishness. The weekly and Daily are close to the 61.8% retracement of impulse wave from 21/12/15 - 11/07/16 @ +/-$1172. We are thus...
    3y
    Morris Morris
    Hi! Steve. Have you looked at the Dow Ind Avg hourly graph of the 4/11/16 to see if there was any hints that the move on 7/11/16...
    3y
    RealNail RealNail
    Steen! Is your idea to long 30Y still in force? Or stopped?
  • Article / 15 September 2015 at 9:00 GMT

    Steen’s Chronicle: Little learnt from Lehman collapse

    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Steen’s Chronicle: Little learnt from Lehman collapse
    It's been seven years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and instead of using the event as a way to deal with excess, lax structures and a lack of focus on productivity, it became a catalyst for policymakers to 'pretend and extend'. But not all is lost and while the next seven years will be lean, they will be positively lean.
    Read the article
    4y
    fxtime fxtime
    Leverage/debt ratios were an issue even in the days of LTCM and nothing has been learnt from then....sooner or later faith will be lost in a developed...
  • 5y
    Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
    Yes, the point is this: Central banks are dogmatic - they want to raise rates, whether it make sense or not... I think there is small risk...
    5y
    Felix999 Felix999
    Right, Great explanation, Thank you Steen
    5y
    Macronomics Macronomics
    Great call Steen and fully agree
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