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2 Followers
Write a Squawk to Lubo
  • Squawk / 28 September 2016 at 14:38 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    As the doors have been closed on the informal Opec meeting in Algiers the EIA has released its weekly petroleum status report. US inventories dropped for a fourth consecutive week, this time by 1.9 M bbl against expectations of a rise.
    Imports and refinery activity both slowed while gasoline inventories rose by more than expected. The initial market reaction has been negative with gasoline falling by more than 2%.
    Read the Squawk
    3y
    fxtime fxtime
    Agree it is bound to be a facade only. No one wants to look as if they failed to broker a deal.
    3y
    MSN28 MSN28
    Ole, what do you think the price will look like now?
    3y
    Erik Doom Erik Doom
    some days ago you mentined we will probably see the crude Oil in the 30 ties in the end of september. We Did short best but now.......
  • Squawk / 30 June 2016 at 15:46 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Well BoE has done an amazing job to the FTSE100 but I suspect this is folly to chase the market ever upwards. The UK is about to become fiscally worse with Brexit and even with his rate cut and possible bond buying we will import inflation beyond his target level due to the lowering pricing power of sterling.
    Read the Squawk
    3y
    zefy zefy
    FGBL earned some :)
    3y
    zefy zefy
    Yep, got the probability case.
    3y
    fxtime fxtime
    FGBL is gorgeous :-)
  • Squawk / 04 May 2016 at 13:17 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Recession risk is rising with big allocation implications - today's ADP report is the worst in three years! Add to this that the Fed's broad based employment index (# 19 data points) is also making new lows and we have potential for a dramatic change in MAIN MACRO concern: I.e: concern will be recession risk

    Classic economic theory reads that when the labour market turns sour so do markets

    Add to this: economic data ALREADY has been weak for a long period - unlike EUR which is doing "better than"

    This means that we have overweight in US fixed income - trade was done FOMC meeting in this link:

    https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/fomc-anoouncementfed-drops-reference-to-international-concern-but-maintains-strong-domestic-g-7531898

    Action: If nonfarm payrolls on Friday confirms today's ADP number then we could start a big move towards NEW LOWS in US yields.... this would also help EURUSD and gold higher, but the main move would be in fixed income where the market is net SHORT
    Read the Squawk
    4y
    Vitor Oliveira Vitor Oliveira
    Thank you! Maybe another trading opportunity in the cards. On the other hand, since we have US elections, this article deserves some attention imho > http://seekingalpha.com/article/3971118-odds-president-trump-rise-usd-implications?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=44
  • Squawk / 14 April 2016 at 6:57 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Anyone watching the PUT/CALL ratios ? August last year the SP500 had a low value that is about to be matched now. I'll let you look at the SP500 move from mid August onwards suffice to say trade very cautiously as a Black Swan event could trigger the market hard down as the markets are heavilly biased to the long side and the path of least resistance is down.
    Read the Squawk
    4y
    pairstrader1 pairstrader1
    Do you have any data that shows this? Can you explain i more detail?
  • Squawk / 06 April 2016 at 18:30 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Fed Minutes: Super dovish changed to dovish Light..

    The FOMC minutes has just been relesed and in the context of the Über bearish interpretation we had post the actual meeting the Minutes shows some more "differences"...

    1.) FOMC did debate April hike..
    2.) ...but April seem to "urgent"
    3.) June could be more in play but market have taken odds from 40% pre-March FOMC to 20% this morning..
    4.) Fed did moves their dots from four projected hikes to two...
    5.) Atlanta's Feds Lockhart remains the "centrist" and has been calling for hikes sooner rather than later..

    Net:

    The über dovish interpretation should be changed to dovish light...but overall it will makes no major differences to weaker US$ policy in place, but probably give equity market something to consider (ie: hikes still very much on the table at least at the FOMC)

    Steen
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 29 March 2016 at 17:08 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FED / Yellen

    Super dovish:

    Clearly US$ sell signal, buy gold and neutral on stocks (higher uncertainty)

    Yellen is as dogmatic as the old Soviet Union Polit Buro....
    Read the Squawk
    4y
    fxtime fxtime
    So for now...ignore the infamous dot plots until the Fed makes an about turn on fiscal policy again. LOL.
    A good comparison as she and her acolytes would...
    4y
    lptrader lptrader
    As I already said central banks are completely lost or they know something that we don't. Good save us because there's no one above them. Sell USD...
    4y
    Gord Vancouver Gord Vancouver
    Once again you have nailed it Steen; central planning by bureaucrats & technocrats yields little in the medium and longer term. You said it months ago... time...
  • Squawk / 29 March 2016 at 17:07 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FED - Yellen:Clearly FED now NOT data watching but US$ & stock market watching. Never before in Fed history has EXTENRAL factor played this role
    Read the Squawk
    4y
    lptrader lptrader
    Not so sure about the stock market call Steen. When they hike in December already the markets had sank very much on August/September and has preparing for...
  • 4y
    fxtime fxtime
    Neil....look at the recent triggers for the cable for expected moves and drawdowns. last signal was short at 1.4528 on the 3rd May...we are only +100pips and...
    4y
    fxtime fxtime
    SP500 broke the 3 day range today at 2066 and chart shows the current market position.
    Stops haven't as yet been placed but if I wasn't watching the...
    4y
    fxtime fxtime
    Current std dev formula suggests the stop to be adjusted if you were doing this strategy to ;
    As a rolling 3+ day trade to 2052.00
    As a controlled...
  • Article / 10 March 2015 at 9:37 GMT

    Are European equities riding too high?

    Head of Equity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Are European equities riding too high?
    European equities have had their best start in two decades, up 15% in two months (with carmakers up 25%). However, valuations are entering dangerously high levels and any disappointment on Q1 earnings in April and May could spell trouble for the bull market.
    Read the article
    5y
    JOSHUA63 JOSHUA63
    i'm shorting german automakers Bmw and Daimler at these prices
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