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3 Followers
Write a Squawk to Liam Conroy
  • Squawk / 21 June 2017 at 6:42 GMT
    Technical Analyst / PIA-First
    United Kingdom
    European markets are set to open weaker this morning and were dragged lower yesterday by weaker oil prices.

    BP has been trading in a neat range for the past few weeks and we saw a firm rejection at the upper end of this range yesterday.

    I now expect to see a move towards the lower end of this channel and potentially a break lower.

    The lower end of the range comes in at 440p, if this breaks then the implied target on the downside is 403p.

    The shares have been downgraded this morning by Macquarie Bank to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral'

    BP also score very poorly in my fundamental ranking model.

    Trade today is to sell at market, initially targeting 440p, then a move lower to 403p.

    Stop loss at 477p
    Read the Squawk
    21 June
    Liam Conroy Liam Conroy
    what time horizon joe?
    21 June
    Joe Neighbour Joe Neighbour
    Morning Liam,
    I would say 1-3 weeks.
    Joe
    22 June
    Joe Neighbour Joe Neighbour
    BP making new lows on a relative basis versus the FTSE100 at the moment.
    Key support is 440p.
    Bring stop down to 470p from 477p
  • Article / 18 May 2017 at 10:00 GMT

    Why long volatility is such a painful trade — #SaxoStrats

    Head of Equity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Why long volatility is such a painful trade — #SaxoStrats
    Volatility is on everyone's lips these days as the VIX index hit a record low not long ago, and just prior to yesterday's big jump in volatility due to the ongoing political crisis in the US. Volatility is complicated, but in this research note we lay out the foundations for volatility and how it's traded.
    Read the article
    18 May
    Georgio Stoev Georgio Stoev
    Good highlight Pete. As always there's a fear of the unknown, like anything in life take time to investigate before you move in. VIX and VIX...
    18 May
    Market Predator Market Predator
    @Peter: great stuff and now because of "political tension VOL spike" (I believe only temporary) really on-topic. Perfect! 😜
    19 May
    Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
    Just some quick changes to some of the details. VXX etc. are obviously ETNs and not ETFs. I write "...and realised volatility is below implied volatility at...
  • Trade view / 04 November 2016 at 13:14 GMT
    Strategic trade

    Trading the US health care bubble – #SaxoStrats

    Head of Equity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    The US health care system is unsustainable as we have outlined in a research note earlier today. With popular anger rising and a new administration soon to take over, 2017 may be the year when real progress can be done to curb the excess drug price increases observed over the past decades. We are playing the industry short through the iShares US Healthcare Providers ETF (IHF:arcx) which is a specialised ETF focusing on only health care provideres and services companies.
    Read the Trade View
    1y
    Cat Cat
    Thanks for the trade view.
    1y
    Gus1 Gus1
    Hi Peter. Please explain how the recall can happen in such a short sale. On the other hand with the financing cost and recall risk, would be...
    1y
    Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
    When you short, you are lending shares, which can be called back anytime by the long investor lending you the shares/ETFs
  • 1y
    Liam Conroy Liam Conroy
    hi Peter, what time horizon would you see
    1y
    J R J R
    not cool to change the stop price like this
  • 2y
    Liam Conroy Liam Conroy
    out with a 5% return, great recomentation, thanks Ole. looking at long KEZ5 nearing a bottom 425-430 area any thoughts?
  • 2y
    Liam Conroy Liam Conroy
    Hi Andreas
    with the big jump in corn prices would this not depress the cattle price
    Liam
    2y
    Andreas Clenow Andreas Clenow
    Perhaps, and perhaps not. At times there's a high correlation and at other times it's completely gone. Well, now the FC opened down, so we can enter...
    2y
    Liam Conroy Liam Conroy
    Thanks Andreas
  • 2y
    Liam Conroy Liam Conroy
    hi Ole
    have this trade on, up 4.35% would you take this off now with exp fast approaching
    liam
    2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Good to hear Liam. No one ever gets told off for booking a 4.35% profit so a tough call. The downside potential remains but hinges on progress...
    2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Gasoline has found support today despite weakness in WTI. On that basis we close the idea originally opened on June 18 on RBN5 and later rolled to...
  • Squawk / 17 June 2015 at 9:17 GMT
    Trader, College Professor
    United States
    GBP What we have is way overbought USD, oversold EUR and for many months, what we need is a meeting in the center to allow trend continuation. The EUR is fast relieving itself of oversold, so far 300 pips relieved in the last few weeks and more relief will come as ranges in current dead zones continue. No way would I take this EUR long. The trend is down and down we will see.But what's driving EUR over last weeks was not only oversold but EUR crosses. Now Crosses are overbought but also at vital points, same story with GBP. Do you honestly think the belligerent Greeks want a deal, not under present terms, see the ECB spike balance sheet lately and enormous QE purchases, 1.1236 must break to see shorts get going, GBP 1.5884 is fast approaching
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    Brian Twomey Brian Twomey
    Interesting article in Euro Intelligence yesterday by Manchau, he calculates cost of Greek default and Drachma possibilities. He sees Drachma at lower exchange rate much more beneficial...
    2y
    Brian Twomey Brian Twomey
    Interesting Poll from Friday reports Dansk Bank, 50% Greeks favor stay in EURO, 27 favor leave, any deal must be approved by respective Parliaments, Germans do not...
    2y
    Brian Twomey Brian Twomey
    See the guy OLE Hansen on this site wants to buy Platinum in relation to Gold. That's an economic Play, purely. Platinum Vs Gold is an old...
  • 2y
    Andreas Clenow Andreas Clenow
    No problem, Liam. Cocoa is getting quite interesting here. The price is finally breaking up into a potential new trend and the backwardation is supporting a positive...
    2y
    peter peter
    is there any fundamental news for the negative breakout or just technical driven?
    2y
    Andreas Clenow Andreas Clenow
    Sorry for the late reply, Peter. The distinction may not be so clear, and it might not be important anyhow. The term structure is a major factor,...
  • 2y
    Liam Conroy Liam Conroy
    Hi Peter
    would you use a cfd here
    Liam
    2y
    LION KING LION KING
    This comment has been redacted
    2y
    Bent L Bent L
    Seems that the title rather should have been "short life for Michal Kors call options".
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