14 February 2018 at 13:49 GMT
Today's US data is as risk-unfriendly as possible. We just saw a higher than expected Jan. US CPI inflation print for both the headline and core and very weak Retail Sales report of -0.2% ex Autos and Gas with a downward revision of the December data as well. These were the most prominent data releases since the February 2 Average Hourly Earnings surprise that generated the narrative leading to the meltdown in risk appetite: fears that the entire US yield curve will come unglued and rise on rising inflation and fiscal irresponsibility from the US government. The data today only underlines that narrative of mini-stagflation (higher inflation on a weakening economy).
This could be a very volatile day ahead in US session as it is a key sentiment test after the recent volatility. If bad nerves get worse, we could see more of the strong USD and even stronger JPY from here in forex.
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02 February 2018 at 14:30 GMT
Worldwide growth combined with rising inflation expectations, rising bond yields, and now lower equities have been a mixed blessing for commodities so far this year. The rally was paused after rising wage pressure in the US helped send the dollar higher while bonds and stocks moved lower
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