Finland
Biography
I worked as a derivatives broker (mostly FX products) from 1991 to 1998. At the introduction of the euro I moved on to training, software, consulting and writing.

I've seen the ERM crisis of 1992, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the Russian crisis of 1998. In February 2000 I wrote an article with the title "On Bubbles". In July 2006 I wrote with the title "The Coming Global Real Estate Bust".

I've worked in a world where real-time market data, analytics and the Internet were not common. That has changed. What has not changed are the politicians, their crisis response and the credit boom-bust cycles.

I've seen enough to take anyone's statement with great skepticism. I hope you return the favor and also doubt everything that I write. I like to engage with my audience, so feel free to leave comments.

Specialties: options (also exotic), euro crisis, EURUSD.
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Write a Squawk to Juhani Huopainen
  • Article / Friday at 14:39 GMT

    Friday charts: JPY, European financials, sentiment, US yield curve

    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    Friday charts: JPY, European financials, sentiment, US yield curve
    European financial stocks have underperformed the rest of the market during the beginning of 2016. The divergence is large enough to suggest a reasonable market neutral spread-trading opportunity. Elsewhere, despite the Bank of Japan's negativity surprise, the JPY seems intent on not going anywhere - tread carefully! Meanwhile, the US yield curve has flattened, and the 10y-2y spread is lower than at any point since 2008.
    Read the article
    2d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    I omitted the European financials- charts, so here goes:
    2d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    Another:
    2d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    More European doom&gloom, suggesting a bottom is close, here: "Europe's Economic Outlook Darkens, Sends Shudder Through Markets" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-05/europe-s-economic-outlook-darkens-sends-shudder-through-markets
  • Squawk / Friday at 13:56 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    US Employment Report: were it not for all of the recent market panic and market instability, this was just what the doctor ordered if we're to expect more hawkish Fed and faster pace of rate hikes for the rest of the year: higher labor utilization as evidenced by the Average Weekly Hours back at the highest level for the cycle and the highest two months of earnings increases for the cycle. (Jan. at 2.5% YoY and Dec. revised up to +2.7%).

    There has been a bit of delayed reaction, but that seems to be the idea now as the USD rallies and the December 2016 Fed Funds future prices in a few more basis points of hiking. Weak payrolls growth doesn't matter much if the interpretation is that skilled workers are hard to find and that wages will rise faster now.

    That's a big "if" however, and the overhanging question is how much the market has this data on the radar with so many other fish to fry, especially China's reserves report over the weekend and next week's Yellen testimony.
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  • Article / Friday at 11:53 GMT

    Daily Shot: Deutsche Bang!

    TradingFloor.com Team / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Daily Shot: Deutsche Bang!
    Financial institutions in Europe are under pressure and Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche Bank, is in deeper trouble than most. Elsewhere, the strength in the EUR and weakness in the USD are important factors for many industries and markets. Rate hikes by major Central Banks as Federal Reserve and Bank of England become less and less likely.
    Read the article
  • Article / Friday at 6:30 GMT

    NFP Preview: US jobs machine seen gearing down

    Head of Macro & Quantitative Strategies / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    NFP Preview: US jobs machine seen gearing down
    The US jobs report for January arrives today amid increased uncertainty about the global economy and its vulnerability to the Chinese slowdown as well as widespread market scepticism about the pace of US interest rate hikes going forward. The consensus expectation is for an increase of 190,000 nonfarm jobs, though our forecast is slightly more bullish at 224,000. The red-hot US jobs market is likely to slow in 2016 after booming in the fourth quarter of 2015.
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  • Article / Friday at 6:04 GMT

    3 Numbers: Healthy gain expected for US payrolls

    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    3 Numbers: Healthy gain expected for US payrolls
    The December jobs report from the US is expected to be "OK" – a reasonable increase in payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate. The asset markets acted surprised when the Federal Reserve started signalling it might delay rate hikes if the USD remains strong, even though the implied expectation was that the Fed would do exactly that. What is going on?
    Read the article
  • Squawk / Wednesday at 13:45 GMT
    -
    Denmark
    FED'S DUDLEY: MKT TURMOIL COULD ALTER OUTLOOK

    Early hint of no 4x hikes this year?
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