Finland Finland
Biography
I worked as a derivatives broker (mostly FX products) from 1991 to 1998. At the introduction of the euro I moved on to training, software, consulting and writing.

I've seen the ERM crisis of 1992, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the Russian crisis of 1998. In February 2000 I wrote an article with the title "On Bubbles". In July 2006 I wrote with the title "The Coming Global Real Estate Bust".

I've worked in a world where real-time market data, analytics and the Internet were not common. That has changed. What has not changed are the politicians, their crisis response and the credit boom-bust cycles.

I've seen enough to take anyone's statement with great skepticism. I hope you return the favor and also doubt everything that I write. I like to engage with my audience, so feel free to leave comments.

Specialties: options (also exotic), euro crisis, EURUSD.
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277 FOLLOWERS
Write a Squawk
  • Squawk / 7 hours ago
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    "ECB Sources" not leaning on new policy initiatives just yet, according to an MNI story.

    MNI News Story hitting the wires: according to "ECB sources", there is no consensus on need for May policy action and no unanimity on any specific non-standard policy tool. Additionally, "possibility that inflation has hit bottom" and that low inflation readings are only relevant if they lead to a forecast revision. EURUSD ticks up on this as the farce continues....(Draghi was just out a little while ago talking up the potential for action, etc....)
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 9 hours ago
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    EURSEK has bounced back after the Riksbank minutes released this morning, which show an increasing count of members more clearly leaning towards cutting the policy rate. Keep in mind that the meeting took place the day before the release of the very low March CPI release earlier this month, though one can presume that the Riksbank members might have had a sneak peek at this data. EURSEK found support today in the first support area of interest around 9.05 and may be ready to rally again from here rather than testing the bigger support around 9.00 after the German IFO survey today gave the Euro a boost.
    Read the Squawk
    9h
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    Here's a link to the full minutes: http://goo.gl/NTLx9F
  • Squawk / 10 hours ago
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    German IFO better than expected in April. The business climate index climbed to 111.2 from 110.7 last month while consensus had expected 110.4.
    The current assessment index was mostly unchanged at 115.3 from 115.2 and 115.6 expected, so the improvement in the headline index came from the expectations index, which rose to 107.3 from 106.4. Consensus had predicted a drop to 105.8.
    Overall a solid report made even better by the fact that it is the expectations index, which is the main driver.
    Read the Squawk
    9h
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    The pickup in expectations is particularly nice, as the construction sector's expectations are going through a negative seasonal patch. Here's the link to the press release: https://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/facts/Survey-Results/Business-Climate/Geschaeftsklima-Archiv/2014/Geschaeftsklima-20140424.html...
  • Editor’s Picks / 10 hours ago

    Interest rates and unconventional thinking

    NoahOpinion
    Over the last three years, a quiet rebellion seems to have sprung up in macroeconomic circles. So far, it's limited to a few whispers, a couple of papers, and the odd blog post or dinner speech, but it represents a striking break from conventional thinking. And despite my best efforts, I find myself unable to convince myself that it's wrong. The rebellious idea - which I've decided to call "Neo-Fisherite" - is that low interest rates cause deflation, and high interest rates cause inflation. If this is correct, then not only is the Fed massively confused about what it's doing, but much of the private sector may be reacting in the wrong way to monetary policy shifts.
    Read article on NoahOpinion Go to post
  • 1d
    DP DP
    Love the bottom one as usual :)
    1d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    It's difficult not to like it. Perhaps in June or so it breaks, when the ECB finally gets around to doing something. Or perhaps the pattern will...
  • 1d
    dardar dardar
    Спасибо)
  • 2d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    I do tend to think that Riksbanken's move to hike interest rates was wrong. Riskbanken has consistently failed to keep up with its two-percent inflation target -...
  • Article / 11 April 2014 at 5:14 GMT

    3 Numbers to Watch: German inflation, US confidence, IMF/World Bank

    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    3 Numbers to Watch: German inflation, US confidence, IMF/World Bank Read the article
    11 April
    Marie Donty Marie Donty
    This comment has been redacted
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