Finland Finland
Biography
I worked as a derivatives broker (mostly FX products) from 1991 to 1998. At the introduction of the euro I moved on to training, software, consulting and writing.

I've seen the ERM crisis of 1992, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the Russian crisis of 1998. In February 2000 I wrote an article with the title "On Bubbles". In July 2006 I wrote with the title "The Coming Global Real Estate Bust".

I've worked in a world where real-time market data, analytics and the Internet were not common. That has changed. What has not changed are the politicians, their crisis response and the credit boom-bust cycles.

I've seen enough to take anyone's statement with great skepticism. I hope you return the favor and also doubt everything that I write. I like to engage with my audience, so feel free to leave comments.

Specialties: options (also exotic), euro crisis, EURUSD.
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  • Article / Friday at 5:14 GMT

    3 Numbers to Watch: German inflation, US confidence, IMF/World Bank

    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    3 Numbers to Watch: German inflation, US confidence, IMF/World Bank Read the article
    5d
    Marie Donty Marie Donty
    This comment has been redacted
  • 6d
    Dan Murray Dan Murray
    Thanks for your opinions and "good luck" wishes everyone! @ Juhani, I agree with you completely. Comments from ECB officials are one of the main...
    5d
    fxtime fxtime
    A good call Dan. Wish I traded it :-)
    3d
    Dan Murray Dan Murray
    Thanks fxtime! Not over yet though :)
  • Squawk / 09 April 2014 at 18:06 GMT
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FOMC Minutes: Several Fed officials said that the new forecasts overstated the rate rise path (dovish). Several participants saw trends posing financial stability risks (hawkish). FOMC participants saw slack persisting in labor market and inflation rising to 2% goal. I'm not seeing a huge amount to hang my hat on with these minutes, and the market defaults to USD weakness, where it was leaning before their release anyway. Apparently the read on these minutes is "somewhat dovish", as the June 2015 Fed Funds future is up all of two ticks after their release. The reaction in treasuries has been more pronounced, as the ten-year future has leaped over a third of a point on this.
    Read the Squawk
    09 April
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    1.4000 will be a big line in the sand if we get there for EURUSD as it will dramatically raise the risk of real policy action rather...
    09 April
    benlouro benlouro
    for the real economy is not the value that matters... 1.40 or 1.38 who cares. the problem for companies and the economy is the time and the...
    09 April
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    benlouro-spot on.
  • Squawk / 09 April 2014 at 16:40 GMT
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    FED minutes coming up.. Recently the stock market has usually reacted negatively to the report, but has recouped the losses on the following day. This is because the hawkishness of the FOMC, and its determination to taper, has consistently been underestimated. Perhaps today as well the minutes prove to be more hawkish than the market consensus expects - especially after the dovish speech that chairwoman Janet Yellen gave after the previous FOMC meeting. The continued USD weakness also supports this scenario. More on the Wall Street Journal on this: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/04/09/how-the-market-reacts-to-fed-minutes/?mod=WSJBlog
    Read the Squawk
    09 April
    DP DP
    Juhani, I didn't get E-mail notice about this post.

    Is this "new style" site problem? Do another subscribers of yours have it?
    09 April
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    I think you should check your email settings, and note that actual articles and squawks are different. And if that fails, say it.
    09 April
    DP DP
    Thanks Juhani. I've found empty settings boxes in Latest Notifications -> Settings

    Location is odd and it's strange that settings were not migrated from the old site....
  • Squawk / 09 April 2014 at 6:52 GMT
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    EU's Olli Rehn out saying that the Greek economy is improving and the France will get an extension on its deficit targets.

    Bloomberg:
    *EU'S REHN: POSITIVE THAT GREECE IS TESTING BOND MARKETS
    *EU'S REHN: POSITIVE SIGNS ENCOURAGING GREECE TO MOVE FORWARD
    *EU'S REHN: FRANCE GRANTED EXTENSION TO CUT DEFICIT
    *EU'S REHN: EUROPEAN EMPLOYMENT DATA BETTER THAN EXPECTED
    Read the Squawk
    09 April
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    Surprise, surprise. The fiscal pacts seemingly are not enforced if the country is large enough.
    09 April
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Business as usual in the euro area...
    09 April
    fxtime fxtime
    The fiscal pact is an utter sham it seems ...sooner or later the world trust in the ECB will fail and central banks will regard the euro...
  • Squawk / 08 April 2014 at 10:27 GMT
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    EURUSD: the good old "buy on ECB days, sell on FOMC days" still held.
    Read the Squawk
    08 April
    DP DP
    Awesome.
    08 April
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    It truly is. Both the Fed's determination to end QE, and ECB's reluctance to act are consistently underestimated by the market participants.
    09 April
    DP DP
    You must be rich by now! :)
  • 08 April
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    So is J.P. Morgan's downloadable quarterly chartbook "Guide to the Markets": https://www.jpmorganfunds.com/cm/Satellite?UserFriendlyURL=diguidetomarkets&pagename=jpmfVanityWrapper
  • Squawk / 06 April 2014 at 13:50 GMT
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    Next week’s calendar looks dull.

    Monday: German and Spanish industrial production data probably of little consequence. The last Friday’s stock market sell-off is either resolved immediately by rising prices, or general weakness will dominate the rest of the week. ECB speaker at 14:00 GMT probably continues with dovish lines.

    Tuesday: UK industrial production, relevant as it is a BoE week. Three Fed speakers.

    Wednesday: FOMC minutes published, two Fed speakers.

    Thursday: China trade statistics and M2. ECB’s monthly report worth a peek for QE hints. BoE meeting.

    Friday: German and Spanish consumer price indices are important. US April consumer survey probably not so.

    On the following weekend IMF and World Bank hold their annual meetings, and ECB’s Draghi indicated a joint paper with the BoE will be presented there. The paper discusses the reserve requirements of asset-backed securities, with the aim of preparing the ground for a European-style QE programme.
    Read the Squawk
    06 April
    IDRIS IDRIS
    boss give me money so I can live with smart
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