Finland
Biography
I worked as a derivatives broker (mostly FX products) from 1991 to 1998. At the introduction of the euro I moved on to training, software, consulting and writing.

I've seen the ERM crisis of 1992, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the Russian crisis of 1998. In February 2000 I wrote an article with the title "On Bubbles". In July 2006 I wrote with the title "The Coming Global Real Estate Bust".

I've worked in a world where real-time market data, analytics and the Internet were not common. That has changed. What has not changed are the politicians, their crisis response and the credit boom-bust cycles.

I've seen enough to take anyone's statement with great skepticism. I hope you return the favor and also doubt everything that I write. I like to engage with my audience, so feel free to leave comments.

Specialties: options (also exotic), euro crisis, EURUSD.
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502 Followers
Write a Squawk to Juhani Huopainen
  • Article / 30 October 2017 at 8:20 GMT

    FX Update: 'It could not be a crazier week for US event risks'

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FX Update: 'It could not be a crazier week for US event risks'
    The US economic calendar this week was already a heavy one, with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as well as the October ISM surveys and Friday jobs data. But these are actually the least interesting event risks, as Trump’s Fed chair nominee unveil, tax reform and possible developments in the Mueller investigation are more highly anticipated.
    Read the article
  • Squawk / 26 October 2017 at 11:57 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    ECB: as many expected, the ECB announced that it would continue with QE at the reduced rate of EUR 30B per month (vs. current 60B) as of January 1 and that the QE would extend through September of next year. At the same time, the ECB says it expects to keep the interest rate at current levels well beyond the end of QE (meaning no expected hike until 2019 if they are to keep their word from this point.)

    While the Euro is selling off, this was largely in line with expectations and the March 2019 Euribor future has moved all of 1 tick higher from yesterday's close, which indicates that this is more of a sentiment test for the Euro rather than anything that is notably shifting the goalposts of interest rates or expectations. Developments could be forthcoming in the press conference up shortly, of course.

    Outlook - if EURUSD closes the day (or tomorrow) down through the recent 1.1725 lows, this could set up an eventual move to 1.1450-1.1500 contingent upon USD-positive developments.
    Read the Squawk
    26 October
    Morten Olby Morten Olby
    Now jumps up to 1,1775. Did Draghi say something at the press conference that change your conviction towards a lower EURUSD?
    26 October
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    I don't have much conviction - just need to see the weak close for technical justification of a follow up move lower in near term as seeing...
    26 October
    Morten Olby Morten Olby
    Thanks John, will monitor the closing price.
  • Squawk / 12 September 2017 at 13:24 GMT
    Head of Macro Analysis / Saxo Bank
    France
    The most important chart for equity folks. Will the relationship between Fed balance sheet and S&P500 break in the unwid?
    Read the Squawk
    12 September
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    I'd say the "global" central banks' balance sheet sum (both level, but especially change) is more important.

    But it points to the same direction.
    13 September
    Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
    Interesting point indeed. As you mentioned, it all goes the same way. Quite challenging for the near future.
  • 12 September
    Morten Olby Morten Olby
    This was spot on Steve. Well done!
    02 October
    phil c phil c
    My hat's off to you for this prediction! A perfect outcome. Are you still in this trade today with the Dax @12900? My chart shows this as...
    02 October
    Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading
    Thanks Phil. No longer in this trade after prices hit targets. Price action is overbought and approaching resistance at previous high of 12954 with 13000 psychological resistance...
  • 05 September
    benlouro benlouro
    very good
    05 September
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Very interesting!
  • Squawk / 30 August 2017 at 14:26 GMT
    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    Please note:
    This is the last “Market Comment” I will be providing for Saxo Bank Trading Floor as from September 2017 the site will only carry internal content.

    I must thank all my followers for their support since 2014; it has been a pleasure to write for you and have many interesting conversations.

    I wish you all and indeed everyone at Saxo Bank and Trading Floor all the very best for the future.

    I can be contacted at spope@spotlightideas.net if you are interested in receiving future commentary and analysis.
    Read the Squawk
    31 August
    rananb rananb
    So sad to see u go.Thank you for everything and best of luck!
    04 September
    bhushan bhushan
    will really miss your trade and other analysis.Really gained a lot from your views.regads and all the best
    07 September
    vanita vanita
    Dear Steve,
    I will really miss you....
    And miss your trades and analysis & your reply of our products.
    Take care.
    With Regards,
    Vanita.
  • Squawk / 30 August 2017 at 12:22 GMT
    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    Please note:
    This is the last “Trade Comment” I will be providing for Saxo Bank Trading Floor as from September 2017 the site will only carry internal content.

    I must thank all my followers for their support since 2014; it has been a pleasure to present trade ideas to you and enjoy some lively debate. We all become passionate about markets and money.

    I wish you all and indeed everyone at Saxo Bank and Trading Floor all the very best for the future.

    I can be contacted at spope@spotlightideas.net if you are interested in receiving future commentary and analysis.
    Read the Squawk
    30 August
    ChristianK ChristianK
    Thank you Stephen. Your contributions will be missed
    30 August
    Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
    Thank you everyone for your very kind words. They all certainly mean a lot to me.

    Steve
    30 August
    GEORGIEV GEORGIEV
    Thank you Stephen and very sorry to hear about your leave.
  • 29 August
    Alan M Alan M
    I think all logic faded from the markets around January of this year... But I've been proven multiple times this year as an immedicable idiot
    29 August
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    I'd say this is just another dip, and S&P 500 will see a new all-time-high in 2017. But the bull market is so stretched now, that I...
    30 August
    Alan M Alan M
    Pain...More and more pain
  • Squawk / 29 August 2017 at 9:51 GMT
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    DAX - still trending lower (a flag on longer charts), eventual low possibly not yet seen. BUT... after all the recent big red daily candles, there has been a move higher.
    Read the Squawk
    29 August
    fxtime fxtime
    Minimum is a mean reversion :-)
    Nice chart.
    29 August
    usxau usxau
    FX your theory unfolding in the markets! Awesome! ;)
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