Finland
Biography
I worked as a derivatives broker (mostly FX products) from 1991 to 1998. At the introduction of the euro I moved on to training, software, consulting and writing.

I've seen the ERM crisis of 1992, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the Russian crisis of 1998. In February 2000 I wrote an article with the title "On Bubbles". In July 2006 I wrote with the title "The Coming Global Real Estate Bust".

I've worked in a world where real-time market data, analytics and the Internet were not common. That has changed. What has not changed are the politicians, their crisis response and the credit boom-bust cycles.

I've seen enough to take anyone's statement with great skepticism. I hope you return the favor and also doubt everything that I write. I like to engage with my audience, so feel free to leave comments.

Specialties: options (also exotic), euro crisis, EURUSD.
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476 Followers
Write a Squawk to Juhani Huopainen
  • Squawk / 3 hours ago
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    #ECB consensus was waiting for €80bn for six months, a total of 480bn. We got €60bn for nine months = 540 bn.

    Mayber knee-jerk "buy EUR, sell stocks" on the decreased monthly amount, then someone realized that hey, more QE.

    Also, the statement included "or beyond, if necessary" - meaning more may come, and no pre-commitment yet on ending the QE.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 3 hours ago
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    ECB Announcement: Today's announcement was hawkish on the surface from the ECB. The current rate of purchases was not extended beyond the already declared March of next year, but the ECB did commit to a lower rate of purchases (60B per month through December of 2017) while also saying that they could expand the programme as needed. The de facto taper caught the market off guard and sent EURUSD skyward, but it has come crashing back down again (1.0875 to now 1.0750) and could head lower still.

    After all, is the ECB doing this because it is nearing its goals (2% inflation, etc.). No - it is doing so because the ECB is the only thing holding the EU together and it is tired of this role and the EU needs to figure out its existential problems on the political side as ECB playing far too big a role.

    EURUSD needs to stay below today's high to prove the last of these points. Also watch Draghi presser, of course.
    Read the Squawk
    2h
    bvlaerhoven bvlaerhoven
    Since Japan introduced yield curve control, i was quite confident the ECB was going to implement some sort of this as well. This is even the...
    2h
    bvlaerhoven bvlaerhoven
    Tapering (or however Dragi wants to call it) and not spiking the EUR higher is a class act though. Hats off for that...
    1h
    fxtime fxtime
    Yeah agree Draghi knows how to jawbone the market favourably. Although the DAX has stalled around 11150 whilst the euro erodes. The DAX has reached its...
  • Squawk / 5 hours ago
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    Ahead of ECB-meeting Dec 2015, stocks had risen and EURUSD fallen to 1.05. ECB cut rates, extended QE by six months. Stocks plummeted, EURUSD rallied. .

    Ahead of ECB-meeting Dec 2016, stocks have risen and EURUSD has fallen to 1.05. ECB is expected to extend QE by six months.

    Be careful.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Monday at 18:58 GMT
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    Trump wins - knee-jerk "bad for dollar". Italy votes no - knee-jerk "bad for euro". The opposite happens.
    Read the Squawk
    2d
    goldfinger goldfinger
    Market oversold on Italy. Obvious bounce. Longer term consequences, short euro. Mayhem will arrive!!!!
  • Article / Friday at 16:55 GMT

    FX Week Ahead: USD needs to step up or risk stalling till year-end

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FX Week Ahead: USD needs to step up or risk stalling till year-end
    The US dollar struggled in places this past week, most notably against resurgent sterling and oil-linked currencies. Now it's time for the strong USD to step up again for further gains if bulls want to avoid it stalling from now until year-end. We would like to see a broader-based USD rally, especially against the commodity currencies, euro and the Swiss franc in the coming week.
    Read the article
  • Squawk / Friday at 13:45 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    US jobs report: Uh, what are we supposed to do with that? A very odd jobs report for November from the US, as the (highly statistically managed) nonfarm payrolls change was bang in line at +178k vs. +180k Bloomberg consensus with a minimal -2k in revisions to the previous two months of data. Elsewhere, the Average Hourly Earnings registered a hardly credible -0.1% month-on-month drop, spoiling the recent rise to the highest growth in years. Then again, the headline unemployment rate dropped to 4.6% as the participation rate edged lower while the household survey indicated payrolls growth in line with that for the nonfarm survey.

    All in all, this is a confusing report and the market is also beset with a huge event risk over the weekend in the form of the Italian referendum, so hard to see any dramatic conclusions drawn here for the USD.
    Read the Squawk
    6d
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    No doubt-good squawk-this is hard to understand what is going on here.
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