Finland
Biography
I worked as a derivatives broker (mostly FX products) from 1991 to 1998. At the introduction of the euro I moved on to training, software, consulting and writing.

I've seen the ERM crisis of 1992, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the Russian crisis of 1998. In February 2000 I wrote an article with the title "On Bubbles". In July 2006 I wrote with the title "The Coming Global Real Estate Bust".

I've worked in a world where real-time market data, analytics and the Internet were not common. That has changed. What has not changed are the politicians, their crisis response and the credit boom-bust cycles.

I've seen enough to take anyone's statement with great skepticism. I hope you return the favor and also doubt everything that I write. I like to engage with my audience, so feel free to leave comments.

Specialties: options (also exotic), euro crisis, EURUSD.
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487 Followers
Write a Squawk to Juhani Huopainen
  • Squawk / 13 hours ago
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Commitments of Traders (COT) covering positions held by leveraged traders in commodities, forex and financials for the week ending January 17. Full update on Monday
    Read the Squawk
    8h
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Mondays are really exposed, because we have global Macro call from APAC team, then regular daily morning call + COT report from you sir. So it's really...
  • Squawk / Friday at 16:29 GMT
    -
    United Kingdom
    Hi fxtime, I wanted to make a serious attempt at getting my head around value at risk...could you point me to anything you have written in the past that I might have missed?
    Read the Squawk
    2d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    Here's my old slides, they might be of interest. Or feel free to ask me. I haven't been following the field for years, but can probably point...
    2d
    fxtime fxtime
    Thanks Juhani....and have a good weekend :-)
    2d
    Rogan Rogan
    Thank you very much Juhani...i will study them over the weekend
  • Article / Friday at 9:01 GMT

    FX Update: Market stumbles towards Trump inauguration – #SaxoStrats

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FX Update: Market stumbles towards Trump inauguration – #SaxoStrats
    A clearly dovish press conference with ECB president Mario Draghi failed to take the wind out of the euro's sails for more than a couple of hours yesterday, making it clear that today's Trump inauguration is foremost in investors' minds as a new era of US policy and geopolitical relations kicks off at noon today, Washington DC time.
    Read the article
    2d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    This feels familiar - Trump's policies would be USD-positive, but the strength of the USD would be counterproductive to those policy goals. So USD-negative rhetoric is used....
  • 2d
    Market Predator Market Predator
    The lady from APAC team has very kind voice ♥♥
    2d
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    The Trump inauguration time window is 1130-1230 EST in USA, which is 1630-1730 GMT and 1730-1830 CET
  • Squawk / Thursday at 16:19 GMT
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    Bond yields, stocks and USDJPY have recently moved hand-in-hand. Bond yields and USDJPY have now rise for two days while stocks have remained unchanged. I guess stocks could join the party after "Trump event risk" is over.
    Read the Squawk
    3d
    fxtime fxtime
    If his history of narcissism is anything to go by we can expect a sugar sweet speech promising everything to everyone plus ofcourse he alone will unite...
    3d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    My main reason for thinking that the Trump-rally (or whatever you want to call it, high PMI- or higher bond yield-rally) has more to go is because...
  • Squawk / Thursday at 13:45 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    ECB meeting: Draghi is checking all of the dovish boxes in the opening statement at his press conference, as he suggests that the risks remain to the downside on economic growth, that the inflation outlook is subdued, with no convincing upward trend in underlying inflation. At the same time, Mr. Draghi emphasized that the QE programme can be expanded if necessary. Together with some strong US data released at the same time that Mr. Draghi's press conference got under way, the EURUSD is dropping, though we are seeing isolated euro weakness elsewhere as well. At the end of the day, a close below about 1.0600 in EURUSD (and no disruption from Trump's taking office tomorrow) begin to offer a ray of light for the bears, with ongoing uncertainty otherwise.
    Read the Squawk
    3d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    USDJPY breaking higher from today's range probably also driving EURUSD and risk assets. USDJPY's January downward-sloping trend channel in jeopardy - last, final barrier is the 114.20-level.

    Overall,...
    3d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    After May's "positive surprise", we now have "Draghi positive surprise". Tomorrow there will be a "Trump positive surprise".

    After that, the surprise indices both on the data-...
    3d
    bvlaerhoven bvlaerhoven
    Draghi coming out as dovish as he can today. Fear for a Trump-inspired USD selloff (carried further by positioning) clearly on his agenda.
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