Finland
Biography
I worked as a derivatives broker (mostly FX products) from 1991 to 1998. At the introduction of the euro I moved on to training, software, consulting and writing.

I've seen the ERM crisis of 1992, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the Russian crisis of 1998. In February 2000 I wrote an article with the title "On Bubbles". In July 2006 I wrote with the title "The Coming Global Real Estate Bust".

I've worked in a world where real-time market data, analytics and the Internet were not common. That has changed. What has not changed are the politicians, their crisis response and the credit boom-bust cycles.

I've seen enough to take anyone's statement with great skepticism. I hope you return the favor and also doubt everything that I write. I like to engage with my audience, so feel free to leave comments.

Specialties: options (also exotic), euro crisis, EURUSD.
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385 FOLLOWERS
Write a Squawk to Juhani Huopainen
  • Article / Friday at 8:02 GMT

    Morning Markets: War and oil

    Publication / TradingFloor.com
    Denmark
    Morning Markets: War and oil
    It will be a day with light data only but if the US GDP data fails to meet expectations markets could react. When it comes to the oil price the development of the situation in Yemen has to be watched closely.
    Read the article
  • Article / Friday at 5:57 GMT

    3 Numbers: Central bankers speak, US GDP, US consumer sentiment

    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    3 Numbers: Central bankers speak, US GDP, US consumer sentiment
    A slow data day with minor releases or revisions brings us the third estimate of the US Q4/2014 GDP growth rate and the end-of-the-month US consumer sentiment index. The most potential for market moves are the speeches from central bankers. Also watch out for a possible surprise downgrade of Italian government bonds, which don't seem to be priced in by the markets.
    Read the article
  • Article / 20 March 2015 at 8:02 GMT

    Morning Markets: German slip casts shadow

    Publication / TradingFloor.com
    Denmark
    Morning Markets: German slip casts shadow
    After Germany's producer prices dropped more-than-expected in February, traders will now keep tabs on Eurozone current account data to further gauge the strength of the European economy. The consensus forecast sees the January’s current account surplus increasing to EUR 21.3 billion, up from EUR 17.8 bn in December. Can the weaker euro could help boost the Eurozone current account surplus?
    Read the article
  • Article / 20 March 2015 at 6:01 GMT

    3 Numbers: Core German PPI negative; Eurozone surplus; Fed speeches

    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    3 Numbers: Core German PPI negative; Eurozone surplus; Fed speeches
    German producer prices and the Eurozone current account balance will attract market attention. In the US, two speeches by Federal Reserve officials will attract scrutiny. The implications of the Fed's latest policy-setting meeting have not been fully digested, so any clarifications could make the markets move hard and fast.
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    20 March
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    (the charts were daily and hourly candles - not monthly and daily)
  • Article / 19 March 2015 at 1:15 GMT

    USD bulls run for cover after FOMC statement

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    The FOMC statement caught the markets wrong-footed and sent the US dollar into a downward spiral. But overall the statement's tone was positive, suggesting rate rises are still on the cards, albeit further down the track. So once this clean-out selling is through, the dollar will resume its uptrend.
    Read the article
    19 March
    Patto Patto
    that was a great trade rec of yours on EURUSD Max.......
    19 March
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Thanks. I traded it Hard because it was a very Special Trade set-up
    19 March
    John Roberti John Roberti
    Yesterday I followed your advice on EUR/USD and got the full 300 bips in three hours. Thank you! It was good to make this after a few...
  • 19 March
    sgracemmti sgracemmti
    This comment has been redacted
  • Squawk / 18 March 2015 at 18:01 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Breaking: FOMC statemen drops "patient" and lowers forecasts for FOMC rate through 2016 and lowers inflation and unemployment rate forecasts. More to follow.
    Read the Squawk
    18 March
    Mrvai Mrvai
    EUR/USD +1,42 % ,
    18 March
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    Comparing the new March dot-plot and the previous dot-plot from December 2014: the dispersion of rate views much smaller. Also, rates generally are generally not seen to...
    18 March
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    The inflation outlook on the projections material seems a bit high - the Fed still sees PCE-inflation returning to 2% by the end of 2016, just as...
  • Article / 18 March 2015 at 15:00 GMT

    Expect rate-hike signaling – with a softener

    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    Expect rate-hike signaling – with a softener
    The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee will most probably remove the word 'patient' from its statement today. This will open up the possibility of a rate hike as early as June. To soften this message, the Fed will present a less steep outlook for future rate hikes.
    Read the article
    18 March
    bvlaerhoven bvlaerhoven
    I agree that the FED certainly doen't want to sound too hawkish with removing the "patient" wording. I think Yellen wants to recognize the recent underperformance of...
    18 March
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    The Fed doesn't want to "punish" anyone. It just wants to hike the nominal rates. If real rates rise too fast (market discounts too fast rate cuts,...
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