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8 Followers
Write a Squawk to John Roberti
  • Squawk / Thursday at 13:43 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    The EIA will release its weekly Petroleum Status Report at 16:00 GMT today. The market has been buoyed today by the API report from last night which showed a surprise oil inventory drop of 0.9M barrels. During the last hour it has received an additional boost from the weaker dollar following comments from new Treasury Sec. Mnuchin. In the unlikely event the EIA also shows a drop (surveys says +3M bbl) it would be the first drop since December. Other data to look out for in the report will be gasoline inventories - hit record last week - and the levels of both import and export of crude oil.
    Crude oil imports is expected to taper off over the coming weeks as the impact of the January reduction in shipments from the Middle East will begin to be felt. On the other hand the market will also pay some attention to export data in trying to gauge whether last weeks 1M b/d reading was a fluke or an accelerating trend of rising exports.
    Read the Squawk
    3d
    asena asena
    Hello Ole ! there is Solar eclipse on sunday, next week markets could be hops down. What do you think so ?
    3d
    John Roberti John Roberti
    Dear Ole, last week already, I asked the question but I did not get a reply! This week, we have 9,7million barrels deficit in export and...
    2d
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Hi John, the same question has been raised by others in the market but so far i have not been able to find an answer. Some of...
  • 4d
    Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
    0.7140 is prime support now ... will let you know if i get the signal
    4d
    Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
    missed the trigger by 6 pips and up 40.. annoying but still in
    3d
    Morris Morris
    Usd index chart pasted looks good and very clear. Thanks Ian
  • 5d
    John Roberti John Roberti
    Dear Ole, Thank you very much for your article as well as the two articles recommended: they give a very well informed picture of the risks currently...
    5d
    Morris Morris
    The shorts are at the all time low and the longs are at all time high on oil!!! Kennedy @ Elliott's wave talks about triagles and the...
  • 16 February
    Bullionaire Bullionaire
    He said the other day its been supported by large funds.
    16 February
    fxtime fxtime
    @JohnRoberti ....The Financial Times done a good article today on the oddities in oil pricing after each EIA report ...worth a read imho and the article even...
    16 February
    John Roberti John Roberti
    Thanks FXTIME but I do not have the financial time here in Belgium. But glad they talk of oddities because that seems what it is. Right now...
  • Squawk / 15 February 2017 at 13:56 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    It is once again time for the weekly 'Petroleum Status Report' from the EIA at 1530 GMT. In recent weeks this report has created a great deal of head scratching with the price of oil rallying despite inventories rising by more than expected. This situation has led to an article in today's Financial Times to which i provided some comments. Link: https://goo.gl/OYjBTZ
    API saw inventories rise by 9.9m bbl last week with EIA surveys looking for 3.5m bbl. The report includes a whole host of other data with the most important being collected in the chart below. Only 23k b/d needs to added before production breaks the 9m b/d mark so that may also attract some attention.
    Calendar link: https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/us-eia-weekly-petroleum-status-report-2984512
    Read the Squawk
    15 February
    John Roberti John Roberti
    oil prices have made a roundtrip between 52,90 and 53,56 in a matter of 1h00 after EIA ! no explanations???
    15 February
    John Roberti John Roberti
    analysing in detail the eia report, I found a discrepancy: we have minus 6.1 million barrels in imports versus last week and plus 3,1 million in export...
    16 February
    AndrejLences AndrejLences
    Please Ole. And what do you think about Natural Gas price in next half a year ? Do you agree with EIA STEO forecast ? Thank you...
  • 13 February
    John Roberti John Roberti
    It is difficult to believe tat Oil will go up further! All good news favourable to price have been given: possible increase in global demand, good compliance...
    13 February
    John Roberti John Roberti
    In a few hiours prices have gone down 85 cents and I am not sure it is the end yet! we may have another drop on Wednesday!...
  • Squawk / 10 February 2017 at 9:10 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil receiving a boost following the release of IEA's "Oil Market Report" for February. They raise global demand by 200k to 98M b/d in 2017. This combined with a an Opec compliance of 90% should help bring down global overhang of supply. Non-Opec supply growth is only raised by 100k b/d.
    Headlines from Bloomberg attached
    Link to report: https://www.iea.org/OILMARKETREPORT/OMRPUBLIC/
    Read the Squawk
    10 February
    AIRLINE AIRLINE
    Hei Ole

    I think the 90% + compliance is just speculation. When did Opec stay at its promises?

    I also would question the neutrality of the IEA. ...
  • 10 February
    John Roberti John Roberti
    in the meantime, the pair went another 50 cents up! are you still thinking it should come down to 52,40 or below? thanks in advance for your...
    10 February
    John Roberti John Roberti
    apparently there was just a report from EIA stating that cut compliance so far is at 90% and demand for oil increases for 2017 by 200.000 bpd...!...
  • Squawk / 08 February 2017 at 13:12 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil trading lower for a third day ahead of the "Weekly Petroleum Status Report" from the EIA. The 14.2 m bbl inventory rise reported by the API yesterday has set the stage for crude inventories to overshoot to the upside once again. The three previous reports however were all overwhelmingly bearish but the price nevertheless managed to rally following an initial setback.
    Before API oil had already been drifting lower. This in response to weak gasoline price action. Earlier this week the RBc1 retraced more than 50% of the November to January rally. This in response to an above seasonal inventory rise combined with data pointing towards slowing demand.
    Rising gasoline inventories will put refinery margins under pressure and that could reduce demand for crude oil at a time where weekly production estimates continue to improve.
    In WTI crude oil we are keeping an eye on $50.70 and $52.25.
    https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/us-eia-weekly-petroleum-status-report-2978581
    Read the Squawk
    08 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    US inventories by 13.83 MM bbls but it is being off-set by a drop in gasoline inventories (a rise was expected) while implied gasoline demand rose following...
    08 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
    08 February
    John Roberti John Roberti
    Dear Ole, We still have a net increase in stock after deduction of the variance of import while no increase in gasoline stock and no decrease...
  • Squawk / 07 February 2017 at 8:33 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil is hovering around unchanged with the stronger dollar removing some of the small geo risk premium that was added in response to the increased tensions between Iran and US.
    The canary in the oil market at this stage however seems to be RBOB Gasoline which slumped hard yesterday and today has been testing support at $1.50/gallon.
    RBOB Gasoline has come under pressure from a stronger than expected seasonal inventory build up. This has put refinery margins under pressure with the spread currently testing key support at $10/b.
    Gasoline inventories have been rising faster this January then previous years. This could force a slowdown in refinery demand as margins get hit which in turn could see crude oil inventories rise by more than expected. A weaker gasoline price is therefore likely to force crude oil prices lower with it.
    Read the Squawk
    07 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Gasoline breaking below $150 and with it we are seeing increased selling in both Brent and WTI. Next level to look out for in WTI is $51.60...
    07 February
    John Roberti John Roberti
    dear Ole, Thanks for your info on oil! Since yesterday, I went short at 53,50 and I will stay at least until 51,60! Without your info, I...
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