Thursday at 13:43 GMT
The EIA will release its weekly Petroleum Status Report at 16:00 GMT today. The market has been buoyed today by the API report from last night which showed a surprise oil inventory drop of 0.9M barrels. During the last hour it has received an additional boost from the weaker dollar following comments from new Treasury Sec. Mnuchin. In the unlikely event the EIA also shows a drop (surveys says +3M bbl) it would be the first drop since December. Other data to look out for in the report will be gasoline inventories - hit record last week - and the levels of both import and export of crude oil.
Crude oil imports is expected to taper off over the coming weeks as the impact of the January reduction in shipments from the Middle East will begin to be felt. On the other hand the market will also pay some attention to export data in trying to gauge whether last weeks 1M b/d reading was a fluke or an accelerating trend of rising exports.
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Trade view / Wednesday at 9:03 GMT
There are some major pairs, GBPUSD in particular, that look to have taken the USD bearish bias already. I am wondering if NZDUSD is going to be next.
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Tuesday at 14:31 GMT
The annual International Petroleum event in London has sent oil up. Bullish headlines triggered that movement while the short-term outlook continues to point towards a range bound market.
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16 February 2017 at 8:49 GMT
The Australian dollar, the top performer among G10 currencies, is at its highest in three months on the back of better-than-anticipated employment data, but a slow grind to the downside is to be expected.
07 February 2017 at 8:33 GMT
Crude oil is hovering around unchanged with the stronger dollar removing some of the small geo risk premium that was added in response to the increased tensions between Iran and US.
The canary in the oil market at this stage however seems to be RBOB Gasoline which slumped hard yesterday and today has been testing support at $1.50/gallon.
RBOB Gasoline has come under pressure from a stronger than expected seasonal inventory build up. This has put refinery margins under pressure with the spread currently testing key support at $10/b.
Gasoline inventories have been rising faster this January then previous years. This could force a slowdown in refinery demand as margins get hit which in turn could see crude oil inventories rise by more than expected. A weaker gasoline price is therefore likely to force crude oil prices lower with it.
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