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Long-term technically-driven strategies underpinned by indicators/pattern recognition

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14 Followers
Write a Squawk to Jim Earls
  • Squawk / 16 March 2018 at 9:50 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Gold is currently heading for its lowest trading range in percentage terms since December 2012. A range narrower than $17 was last seen in September 2007 when gold traded at $700/oz.

    Open interest on the COMEX gold future has risen by 10% this week so it’s not because investors don’t care. They just don’t know what to make of it with opposing forces pulling it in opposite directions.

    On top of a very quiet week for the dollar we are also seeing FOMC rate hike jitters being offset by geopolitical uncertainty/risks. If the FOMC fails to deliver a hawkish hike on Wednesday the price is likely to find a bid once again. Not least given the focus on Russia tensions and U.S. political uncertainty with Washington shifting further towards protectionism => trade wars => lower growth.
    Read the Squawk
    16 March
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    What is the reason for Gold and Silver both being pushed to their daily lows nearly every day by 12:00PM EST?
    16 March
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    As you can see from the activity at the moment here-this is what happens nearly every day in the morning hours EST.
    16 March
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Hi Jim, it is not something we have analysed. Today's gold weakness kicked off after US data helped drive the dollar higher as per the chart below....
  • Squawk / 08 March 2018 at 12:52 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    ECB statement drops the easing bias, sees euro firming in kneejerk reaction. The following sentence from the prior ECB policy statement: “If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration”.

    That elimination appears to remove the ECB's intention to grow QE if inflation doesn't arrive - and the implication is that it doesn't believe expanded QE would get it where it wants on inflation anyway. The language leaving a "soft" September deadline for ending QE purchases (soft because they reserve right to extend if necessary) remains unchanged.

    Draghi presser up shortly at 1430 CE
    Read the Squawk
    08 March
    Carletto Carletto
    Jim, you would be right if there was a base to debase. Cash isn't convertible to anything. It's value is more ephemeral. Its lies more in its...
    08 March
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    You can not convert your cash to real physical Gold-Silver-Platinum?
    08 March
    Carletto Carletto
    You can buy it. But not convert it. What I think Jim was refering to, is a physical standard as opposed to a fiat currency.
  • 22 February
    Alan M Alan M
    On the desktop trading application there should be BTP,OAT and 2,5, 10 year german CFDs? But FWIW in my experience shorting any of these products just results...
    22 February
    normbay normbay
    Thanks Alan - is that in a day-trade timeframe? I am looking considerably longer...
    22 February
    Alan M Alan M
    No problems, In my experience its been more medium term, intra week usually. Made 2 attempts to get in on the rising yield story so far this...
  • 15 February
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    EFFR is only 1.42%. 3 Month Bill-1.59%, 6 Month Bill-1.80%. The fact is this Fed Reserve is already behind the curve. By the time...
    15 February
    Patto Patto
    That would be just the kick USD needs Jim.
    15 February
    Morten Olby Morten Olby
    Very good analysis of the oddity of USD these days. Solid work, Max. Thank you.
  • Squawk / 09 February 2018 at 21:17 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    All the action was in the US stock market today: bonds and USD were comparatively quiet (although USDJPY went up and down with equities)

    On the futures/CFD chart (covering all sessions) the S&P 500 recorded a double-bottom at 2530 before recovering strongly into the close (2618)

    For those with a bearish mindset, consider the chart below matching the last few days with 1987

    The much-predicted bear market in bonds can’t gather any steam with the stock market so volatile.

    Perhaps best to stand back and look at the big picture:

    Consider this chart of the real rate on US 10-year bonds (the yield less the inflation rate)

    A break out to the topside on this pattern would be significant, giving investors an attractive option vis a vis stocks.

    It would also be bearish for gold (and commodities in general)
    Read the Squawk
    11 February
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    Max-could not agree more with you. People keep claiming FX trading is highly risky, but I see it the other way around with equity markets being...
    15 February
    NPM NPM
    US 10y above 2.9% and gold, silver, cad, aud, nzd all higher against USD from overnight CPI data, do you expect US10Y rate to drop ?
    15 February
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    The Trend is Up
  • Squawk / 02 February 2018 at 13:43 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Positive US Earnings Surprise jolts the market: after a long history of disappointments, US average hourly earnings rose more than expected in January. The year on year data point printed at a strong +2.9% vs. +2.7% expected and up +0.3% month-on-month vs. +0.2% expected. The 2.9% level matches the high of the cycle last year. The prior month's data point was also revised higher to +2.7%. This is a big surprise as the slow rise in US wages has been seen as a key factor holding back Fed rate hikes.

    US yields have pulled higher still all along the curve in reaction to the data and USDJPY is back above 110.00 as of this writing, with more indifferent reaction in EURUSD. After all, the stronger US yields have been doing much anyway to support the greenback lately. From here, however, it will be interesting to see if the market can hold onto its weak USD conviction if US rates continue to pull sharply higher and the market prices in four or more hikes for 2018.
    Read the Squawk
    02 February
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    Better to earn nothing than lose 50% of your capital.
    02 February
    BHASKAR REDDY BHASKAR REDDY
    sir gold will reach 1327 plz
    02 February
    BHASKAR REDDY BHASKAR REDDY
    ?
  • 29 January
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    The fact that their rates are not being increased by 25bps per meeting is a testament to trying to protect a hyper debt leveraged corner in these...
    29 January
    Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
    Patto, its actually a little out of character of me... i.e. it was not supposed to be click bait. But part of the a good trader is...
    29 January
    Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
    Jim Earls, TGIM man. Totally, bring Volcker back... where are the central bankers of old... who did not care what the market thought of them & actually...
  • 25 January
    Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
    That last chart looks like a giant Head and Shoulders bottom to me... and the Neckline (on my charts anyway!) is at 1348... So let's see if...
    26 January
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Thank you Clive, they are indeed....
  • Squawk / 23 January 2018 at 9:30 GMT
    Technical Analyst / FuturesTechs
    United Kingdom
    Gold set to retest 1347 then BIG resistance 1360-90? That's what the chart is suggesting..

    Below is our report to clients from this morning.
    Read the Squawk
    24 January
    Alan M Alan M
    Looking good Clive, Dollar is under attack yet again this morning!
    24 January
    Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
    Silver is about to bust higher according to the chart!
    24 January
    Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
    The US Dollar is indeed getting smashed. We ar now at levels not seen since December 2014 for the dollar Index, which is at 8950 right now....
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