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Write a Squawk to JakubSzalaFX
  • Article / 03 August 2017 at 13:00 GMT

    ECB seems to anticipate a European financial crisis

    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    ECB seems to anticipate a European financial crisis
    The European Central Bank is seeking tougher penalties on Eurozone members that fail to carry out reforms to avoid another financial crisis. Below the surface, tension is rising between member states and the ECB over the plan and timing of a retreat from ultra-loose monetary policy. And, above all, Italy looks like the Eurozone's problem child.
    Read the article
    2y
    vanita vanita
    Steve,
    Means it's not rgt time to buy Dax indices.
    So it's gud time to buy Nasdaq against Dax sell.
    After long time happy to see you again, Take Care...
    2y
    Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
    Dear Vanita,

    Hello and I hope you are well?

    Both the DAX & NASDAQ have a similar technical aspect. Short-term selling, mid-rage neutral, longer-term buying.

    NASDAQ lifted by Apple in...
    2y
    vanita vanita
    Thanks Steve for valuable comment.
    Thanks.
  • 2y
    BuySellBuySell BuySellBuySell
    Thanks Morris, Stephen. Hopefully we are all right. All the best!
    2y
    fredajerusha fredajerusha
    This comment has been redacted
    2y
    Erik Doom Erik Doom
    So this one went out on sl and now up?
  • Squawk / 28 April 2017 at 21:45 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    US markets didn’t react much to the poor GDP number on Friday and the odds of a June rate hike are still 70%. We’ll see what the FOMC thinks of the data this Wednesday when they issue a short statement after their meeting.

    Of much interest to the Fed will be Monday’s PCE inflation update. After a drop in CPI, chances are the PCE will follow suit (see chart below).

    Better news out of the eurozone where core inflation jumped to 1.2% (see chart), a nice surprise to the ECB.

    Not so in Japan where core inflation has gone negative https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/bank-of-japans-road-to-nowhere-8630238
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    Patto Patto
    there is some hope for the BOJ. The latest numbers for national inflation were for March. Tokyo CPI for April has just been released and has improved...
  • Squawk / 27 April 2017 at 10:58 GMT
    Today's ECB meeting:

    Draghi will try to talk down Euro, but I would say it is an occasion to buy the dip than a new short swing.

    Anyway most important could be April MN bar closing as price may break out from the side range. That means EUR enters a period of "Buy the Dip".
    Read the Squawk
  • 2y
    Allied Allied
    famous last words.
  • Squawk / 10 December 2016 at 12:21 GMT
    12.12.2016 - 18.12.2016

    Big week ahead of us. All eyes are turned to the FOMC meeting.

    Fed Fund prices show 100% discounted rate hike. Statement and conference will be the main drivers.

    1. Rising dollar and bond yields create burden for the economy, especially when the US dollar is at its extremes (in comparison to the Euro). Also robust public debt and deficit, which would rise dramatically under Trump's policy could be significant obstacle.

    2. Inflation is rising, stimulus is just near the corner. Fed needs to raise rates or let the inflation to overshot meaningfully.

    Financial conditions are becoming unfavorable for the US economy and FED might be forced to make them worse due to already strongly recovering economy + possible fiscal stimulus.

    By the way, doesn’t state procyclical policy reminds us of procyclical activity of financial institutions, which led to crisis 2007-2008? Does it matter one was private, now it is state policy? The mechanism is the same.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 20 November 2016 at 12:27 GMT
    WEEK 47 (21.11.2016 - 27.11.2016) [EURUSD][FUS500][USDJPY]

    EURUSD plunged to threaten 1.04-1.05(it is last chance, otherwise 1.20). I expected bullish move to 1.20 some time before elections, but at the moment only 1.0530-60 stands as a last resort for EUR.

    My medium term target around 1.1180-1.12 occurred to be great selling area and now price moves to lower bound of the range(1.05), which could be temporary buy. Given the overstretched USD run and lower TF "begging" for correction, any test of 1.0530-1.0560 will be good opportunity to enter long.

    Market seems to be pricing all USD positive events at one time. However biggest driver is Trump's policy, which in my opinion is overrated and any disappointment will be trigger for short squeeze.

    EURUSD
    Short Term: Bullish
    Medium Term: L1.05, H1.1160-80
    Long Term: None

    FUS500
    Short Term:
    Medium Term: None
    Long Term: Sell 2200-2205

    USDJPY
    Short Term:
    Medium Term: Sell 112.20-112.60
    Long Term: Sell 120.00
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 10 November 2016 at 9:54 GMT
    USD seems to have long term fuel for its strength.

    Trump's fiscal policy -> high inflation -> rate hikes
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 07 November 2016 at 7:48 GMT
    My scenarios for the US elections:

    1. Clinton wins, USD up, short term correction, then back to USD weakness. Would be chance to build new short positions on USD.

    2. Trump wins, shock for the markets and dramatic sell-off of USD and US stocks.

    I base my view on the fact that Trump win may cause turbulence both in financial system and real economy, followed by flatter rate hike path. I think markets are trying to price-in this scenario, that is why we are seeing constant USD weakness this week.

    Anyway I bet on USD weakness in medium term, toward 1.20+ on EURUSD, other pairs will follow.
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    JakubSzalaFX JakubSzalaFX
    Sadly scenario took the stage
    2y
    JakubSzalaFX JakubSzalaFX
    scenario 2
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