Canada
Biography
Have been in Global Markets for the past 7 years trading fixed income / credit, and recently currencies PA

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2 Followers
Write a Squawk to Invinci
  • 11 February
    Invinci Invinci
    Bets Video so far @John J Hardy. Fantastic stuff. Interesting take away for me is with low consumer savings in the US and no fallback of cheap...
    13 February
    Vity studying the market movement for the new year Vity studying the market movement for the new year
    Thanks for the video. I will not worry
    19 March
    Vity studying the market movement for the new year Vity studying the market movement for the new year
    A volatile market calls for patience and vigilance.
  • 1y
    FXKhaos FXKhaos
    Thanks Dan, appreciated.
    1y
    Dan Murray Dan Murray
    Unfortunately, I closed at breakeven several minutes ago. May get back in at some point.
  • Squawk / 22 November 2016 at 14:55 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    If the oil market believes a meaningful production cut is coming how come the Brent contango tells a different story.
    A market moving towards balance should see a diminishing contango, not one that is rising.
    Since Opec outlined the deal to cut production in late September the six months Brent crude oil spread has widened from around $2.7 to $3.9 where it is trading today.
    More reading from Reuters here: http://www.reuters.com/article/opec-meeting-kemp-idUSL8N1DN3SR
    Read the Squawk
    1y
    John Roberti John Roberti
    Dear' Ole,
    1y
    John Roberti John Roberti
    more and more articles, including the international EIA are pointing towards a glut of 1,1 or 1,3 million barrel per day thus if OPEC is working for...
    1y
    John Roberti John Roberti
    assuming tonight we are getting a fairly stable US crude production stat and a light increase in crude and gasoline stocks, what do you think the impact...
  • Squawk / 21 November 2016 at 0:09 GMT
    -
    United States
    Short USDCAD at 1.3509.

    While I'm not expecting anything significant in oil, I do think it will continue to drift higher over the very short-term after comments from Russian and Iranian officials over the weekend make a production freeze seem a bit more likely.
    Read the Squawk
    1y
    Dan Murray Dan Murray
    SL now at breakeven.
    1y
    Invinci Invinci
    great call dan
    1y
    Dan Murray Dan Murray
    Thanks Invinci!

    I closed at 1.3417 after it was just reported that there are still some "concerns with Iran" regarding any production freeze deal.
  • 1y
    Dan Murray Dan Murray
    I just closed at breakeven. With no momentum in oil, and with USD strengthening, I decided to get out.
    1y
    Invinci Invinci
    good cut Dan
    1y
    Dan Murray Dan Murray
    Thanks Invinci. Whew! It looks like I got out just in time :)
  • Squawk / 16 November 2016 at 12:22 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Chart is usdcad hourly. we are merely looking at an hourly time frame and it suggests a dip should occur around now or some consolidation !
    Chart should be self explanatory :-)
    Read the Squawk
    1y
    fxtime fxtime
    Trade halved now at 1.3462 for a quick +32pips
    Stop adjusted to b/e as shown on chart. market now at 1.3460 :-)
    1y
    Invinci Invinci
    Hi Fxtime - can you explain the (4 X 1hr) and (10 X 1hr)?
    1y
    fxtime fxtime
    The two ROC lines that I used as reference are trailing indicators....one measures 4 x 1hr OHLC as an average likewise the other at 10 x 1hr...
  • Squawk / 15 November 2016 at 13:24 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    Loonie overdue for correction

    Background

    USDCAD rallied relentlessly following Donald Trump’s election win. The move was fueled by rising bond yields and falling oil prices. The issue is that the move in yields and oil were all due to “expectations’ not hard data.

    So far, the 1.3577 level, being the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2016 range has held. The uptrend from the election night rally was broken with the move below 1.3530, suggesting that a revisit to the break out level is possible.

    A further rebound in oil prices would help the cause. WTI is probing resistance in the $44.88 area which if broken would lead to a test of $45.72

    Management and risk description

    This trade is toast if bond yields resume their rally, kicking off another US dollar uptrend.

    Trade idea parameters

    Sell ½ USDCAD at market 1.3530)

    Stop: 1.3594

    Target: 1.3360

    Time horizon 3 days
    Read the Squawk
    1y
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Large option expires have a huge effect on trading, particularly in the lower volume currency pairs like USDCAD, AUDUSD. Barrier options in particular. The degree in...
    1y
    Invinci Invinci
    ok, so $2.8bn worth of expires on USDCAD tomorrow at 1.35 strike is motivation?
    1y
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    It is. It also depends on the type of option and the distance from the strike.
  • Squawk / 01 November 2016 at 12:56 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    Bullish USDCAD trade crowded

    By now, everyone and their dogs know that USDCAD is going higher. Everyone is aware that the prospect of lower oil prices, a doveish Bank of Canada and a hawkish Fed is a recipe for a Loonie soufflé.

    So, who is left to buy? Arguably, all the negative Canadian dollar news is out and reflected in the price. The Finance Department’s Fall update due at the end of the day today will likely announce a bigger deficit ($30+ billion) and fast tracked infrastructure spending that may boost the Canadian economy. Today’s 0.2% August GDP was as expected and according to some economists keeps 3Q GDP on track for a 3.2% gain
    The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish following the break below the rising channel bottom at 1.3380 which targets 1.3300 and then 1.3260 (the break out level from October 21st following weak Retail Sales and CPI data.) the 1.3425-30 area represents a triple top, reinforcing topside resistance.
    Read the Squawk
    1y
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Hi 4Rix. Yes to both questions. The rally from the 1.3050 low to 1.3430 was steep. The way I see it, the move down to 1.3005 on...
    1y
    Estuardorlemus Estuardorlemus
    Hi Mike. What is your standing on the trade ?
    1y
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Update: If anyone is still in this trade , close it. Tomorrow's employment report will make it a crap shoot
  • Video / 12 July 2016 at 9:12 GMT

    Trading FX this week - technical analysis: Kim

    James Kim@Saxo
    James Kim, sales trader at Saxo Capital Markets Australia, examines trading strategies for the coming week in a technical analysis of forex charts.

    Kim looks at trends in the US dollar index, the Australian dollar, the euro, the yen and cable. He also comments on the S&P500 and oil, gold and copper.
    watch video
    2y
    Invinci Invinci
    Hi Kim - when do expect the USD dollar index buying to start - whats the trigger?
    2y
    charitymemae charitymemae
    This comment has been redacted
  • 2y
    Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
    yes ... looks for a move to the downside before the next rally
    2y
    John Shaw John  Shaw
    Excellent observation Ian. Thank you very much for sharing. Have a great weekend.
    2y
    Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
    Thanks John..... and you. Really appreciate the feedback
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