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3 Followers
Write a Squawk to helicongrowth
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 9:39 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    UK Retail Sales boost sterling. A very comeback for UK Retail Sales in February challenges the notion that UK consumers are delaying activity due to the overhang of Brexit uncertainty. The month-on-month ex Fuel figure for Feb. was a robust +1.3% and +4.1% year-on-year. Sterling is pushing into interesting territory versus the euro in the 0.8600-50 area, which looks pivotal for the near-term outlook.
    Read the Squawk
    17h
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    I believe the qtr on qtr data show biggest fall since 2010 despite big Feb rise.....UK economy going fwd is as clear as mud......I like going against...
    15h
    opportunist opportunist
    What about FX translation - inflationary effect? At least partial explanation of higher nominal retail sales I think.
  • 13 March
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Mkt now has a cumulative 68 basis points of Fed hikes for the year, so the 3 hikes pretty close to priced. Post March hike the June...
  • 06 March
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Don't you mean 3m Eurodollar contracts (not EURUSD contracts)?
    06 March
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Absolutely. Being corrected now
    06 March
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Thanks for the reports anyway......v helpful.
  • 01 March
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    April FFs showing 17/25 = 68%.....looks like a done deal.
    01 March
    Mekong Mekong
    Your Bund trade now looks inspired...
    01 March
    Mekong Mekong
    Patrice trade...
  • 24 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Not sure why you would see AUDUSD rallying on disappointment on trump proposals. The rally in Iron Ore and Copper really got going ont...
  • Squawk / 24 February 2017 at 8:27 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Risky business?

    Peter Garnry has voiced concerns about valuation and our proprietary models continues to flash warning signal.

    This is Z-score risk - S&P vs. Saxo RISK model - we see major divergence presently - the correlation is normally v. high...

    This is clear warning signal
    Read the Squawk
    24 February
    Blange Blange
    Good day Steen, are you saying that is going to be soon a rollercoaster and suggesting us to cash in all our assets?
    24 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Schatz and German yields are flashing EU election worries, then we have Trump policy delays with v high equity valuations. It is time for a correction which...
  • 23 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    usdjpy, equities, gold and finally stocks small, waking up to the risk off implied by the Schatz yield of -093% ie French elections
    23 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Iron ore and Dr Copper getting drilled as well.
  • Squawk / 23 February 2017 at 7:16 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Steen’s Comment Macro:

    UBS’s piece is important read and rhymes with our view that global cyclical factors is peaking now.

    Inflation YoY impact from energy will come down from >80% positive to flat between now and end of May (and yes spill-over happens especially into macro narrative)

    Fed is unlikely to move early into massive short exposure in fixed income – the FI world split into massive bulls and bears, with no middle ground – COT report shown below from Ole S Hansen tells its own story:


    Source: Ole S Hansen and COT report

    Each BASIS POINT of move in rates is equivalent to 159 mio. US Dollar changing hands!

    Finally we have major event risk between now and mid-March. This means we have to be extreme vigilant vis-à-vis risk and small changes to underlying volatility

    I remain overweight US FI on slow-down as outlined above, plus net short dollar now mainly vs. Gold and GBP – yesterday I added short WTI Crude against peak in growth being in place.

    Steen
    Read the Squawk
    23 February
    Macronomics Macronomics
    and Free COT data here: https://freecotdata.com/
    23 February
    Market Predator Market Predator
    @Ole: OK Ole, thanks for your feedback.
    @Macronomics: thanks for external COT link. I can also recommend this one: http://www.timingcharts.com/ but to be honest I'll stay with...
    23 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Hi Is the UBS piece available to read ? Thnks HG
  • 15 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    You don't suppose they will create an oil price squeeze in time for the IPO ????
    15 February
    John G Acher John G Acher
    You should be advising the Saudis, helicongrowth.
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