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1 Followers
Write a Squawk to helicongrowth
  • 2d
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Not sure why you would see AUDUSD rallying on disappointment on trump proposals. The rally in Iron Ore and Copper really got going ont...
  • Squawk / Friday at 8:27 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Risky business?

    Peter Garnry has voiced concerns about valuation and our proprietary models continues to flash warning signal.

    This is Z-score risk - S&P vs. Saxo RISK model - we see major divergence presently - the correlation is normally v. high...

    This is clear warning signal
    Read the Squawk
    2d
    Blange Blange
    Good day Steen, are you saying that is going to be soon a rollercoaster and suggesting us to cash in all our assets?
    2d
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Schatz and German yields are flashing EU election worries, then we have Trump policy delays with v high equity valuations. It is time for a correction which...
  • 3d
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    usdjpy, equities, gold and finally stocks small, waking up to the risk off implied by the Schatz yield of -093% ie French elections
    3d
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Iron ore and Dr Copper getting drilled as well.
  • Squawk / Thursday at 7:16 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Steen’s Comment Macro:

    UBS’s piece is important read and rhymes with our view that global cyclical factors is peaking now.

    Inflation YoY impact from energy will come down from >80% positive to flat between now and end of May (and yes spill-over happens especially into macro narrative)

    Fed is unlikely to move early into massive short exposure in fixed income – the FI world split into massive bulls and bears, with no middle ground – COT report shown below from Ole S Hansen tells its own story:


    Source: Ole S Hansen and COT report

    Each BASIS POINT of move in rates is equivalent to 159 mio. US Dollar changing hands!

    Finally we have major event risk between now and mid-March. This means we have to be extreme vigilant vis-à-vis risk and small changes to underlying volatility

    I remain overweight US FI on slow-down as outlined above, plus net short dollar now mainly vs. Gold and GBP – yesterday I added short WTI Crude against peak in growth being in place.

    Steen
    Read the Squawk
    4d
    Macronomics Macronomics
    and Free COT data here: https://freecotdata.com/
    4d
    Market Predator Market Predator
    @Ole: OK Ole, thanks for your feedback.
    @Macronomics: thanks for external COT link. I can also recommend this one: http://www.timingcharts.com/ but to be honest I'll stay with...
    3d
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Hi Is the UBS piece available to read ? Thnks HG
  • 15 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    You don't suppose they will create an oil price squeeze in time for the IPO ????
    15 February
    John G Acher John G Acher
    You should be advising the Saudis, helicongrowth.
  • 15 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    And a bout of $ weakness towards the end of the day, coincidentally or not starting when Trump started spouting about tax........despite v robust US data.
  • 15 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Oddly the near term fed funds futures hardly increased the chances of a hike in either March or more importantly May.
  • 07 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    $ up and gold up over last few sessions = risk off sentiment growing
  • Article / 02 February 2017 at 8:58 GMT

    FX Update: USD woes continue after indifferent FOMC

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FX Update: USD woes continue after indifferent FOMC
    The FOMC statement released late yesterday saw a number of small language adjustments, few of which indicated any new urgency on the need for the next rate hike. The US dollar is settling lower once again, as the market eyes Friday’s jobs report and what, if anything, will stop the greenback’s slide.
    Read the article
    02 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    No it does not, the ADP is not a reliable predictor of payrolls.......
    02 February
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    payrolls has a +/- 80k variance on each release + revisions.....
    02 February
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    Sure it's not one on one on a monthly basis, but over time, it almost is.
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