United Kingdom
Trading strategy
Statistical hypothesis testing
Biography
Traded since 1992 using ;-
Quantitative bias over assorted time frames.
Real Time Trading Analysis for;
...Bayesian and Frequentist analysis
...FX ..cable and eur/usd only.
...Bond and near/far futures spreads
...Ultra Short Term Options
...Sale of Statistical Trading Models
...Provision of Control trades for real time review/measurement
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382 Followers
Write a Squawk to fxtime
  • Squawk / Friday at 22:21 GMT
    -
    United Kingdom
    W34 #FX technical sentiment:
    #GBPCHF ▼
    #GBPJPY ▼
    #AUDJPY ▼ (CONTRARIAN)
    #AUDCHF ▼(CONTRARIAN)
    #EURAUD ▲
    #AUDNZD ▼(CONTRARIAN)
    #EURGBP ▲
    #GBPNZD ▼
    #MOFuturesFX
    Read the Squawk
  • Article / Friday at 15:36 GMT

    Does NAFTA spell 'Not Another Failed Trump Action'?

    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    Does NAFTA spell 'Not Another Failed Trump Action'?
    Only the euro and sterling lost ground against the US dollar in a week dominated by a dysfunctional Trump administration that sparked worries that the president's whole economic agenda could be derailed. Meanwhile, talks to revise the NAFTA treaty got started this past week.
    Read the article
    2d
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Hello Michael. Look at Oil. 3.3% gain on Friday with no data released! Have a great Weekend. 😜
    1d
    Sajor Sajor
    What about Mexico? Canada wants, US wants...
    1d
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Not enough space to do it justice.
  • Squawk / Friday at 14:05 GMT
    -
    Switzerland
    EURUSD short trade
    Looking at this structure now and if we don't get a break to the down side today, I will close my long position before the weekend.
    Wishing all a great weekend and enjoy the time away from the charts! :)
    Read the Squawk
    2d
    usxau usxau
    Woops, sorry I will close my short position before the end of today! ;)
    2d
    alki alki
    You too have a great time. Been a quite good trading day, 2 wins out of 2 trades...
  • 2d
    Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
    Hi Juhani very true words , i can stop thinking Trump will stand down and possible Michelle Obama run for the post . massive long shot but...
    2d
    Sotha Sotha
    Pence would be POTUS as per 25th Amendment. Then Paul Ryan. Why should he resign? He has 3.5y more to serve. Who can afford a lame duck...
  • Squawk / Thursday at 17:54 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Mean reversion trading can be applied to many many marketplaces. But drawdowns can be severe. Option traders always trade the extremes of market moves because they know it is safer....when volatility is for example at an extreme you would trade contrarian as you expect sooner or later you would volatility to return to average return to the mean and thus make your revenue. Combining both extreme moves and mean reversion techniques become IMHO a very worthwhile trade strategy. One for those who have known me too many years is a favourite trade scenario. Consider the sp500 currently a spread between last nights closing bell price and tonights if beyond 24pts would permit me to trade a mean reversion trade with the expectation that we will rally to the mean within 2 to 3 trading days max. Trade small as drawdowns can be grim but probability of success is insanely good!
    Read the Squawk
    3d
    fxtime fxtime
    This was one of the articles but as yet I can't find the more definitive ranges. Give me a bit of time though :-)
    https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/walking-our-way-into-an-average-strategy-8253195
    3d
    Rogan Rogan
    Thanks mate, no rush :)
    3d
    kom75 kom75
    Thanks fx. Have a great evening guys:)
  • 3d
    AitorP AitorP
    Thanks Alan, you can't win always
    3d
    alki alki
    Thank you Alan, keep sharing with us your views.
    3d
    AlanCollins AlanCollins
    Thanks guys. my assessment of the technicals today was not correct. AS you say, it happens. FOMC aftermath very often messy and dilutes technical indicators. Tomorrow...
  • 2d
    fxtime fxtime
    Great analysis Nadia. :-)
  • Squawk / Wednesday at 10:26 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Remarkably the BoE internal staff only Blog highlights potential concern with consumer debt. Credit card providers suggest that consumers are maxing the credit card with day to day living needs such as food and fuel. But it also wonders if the car financing market is becoming a might heated. Inducements such as £1500 off purchase price offers for selected models (read as slow selling models) impact the second hand market by the same amount of discounting. But credit finance assumes a minimum value of of a car at a given date within the loan term and these discounts make for losses. Similarly the so called interest free marketplace where large ticket items are bought by consumers using an Interest Free promotion to spread their monthly outlay. But these loans are never interest free as the vendor has to front load some of the interest costs to the item and discount their profit margins to accommodate a front loaded deal....now however (cont'd)
    Read the Squawk
    4d
    fxtime fxtime
    We see the same front loaded facility to cars which destroy second hand values further. The depreciation of a car is immense especially in the first four...
    4d
    fxtime fxtime
    With the advert above.....Zero deposit !! There is no spare cushion to the price value of the vehicle to reflect excess wear and tear or high mileage...
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