United Kingdom
Trading strategy
Statistical hypothesis testing
Biography
Traded since 1992 using ;-
Quantitative bias over assorted time frames.
Real Time Trading Analysis for;
...Bayesian and Frequentist analysis
...FX ..cable and eur/usd only.
...Bond and near/far futures spreads
...Ultra Short Term Options
...Sale of Statistical Trading Models/Python (polygot data)
...Provision of Control trades for real time review/measurement
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406 Followers
Write a Squawk to fxtime
  • Squawk / Wednesday at 20:41 GMT
    -
    United Kingdom
    W37 #FX daily update:
    #GBP 1.01 %▼
    #CAD 0.49 %▲
    #EUR 0.24 %▼
    #USD -0.07 %▼
    #CHF -0.14 %▼
    #JPY -0.29 %▼
    #AUD -0.32 %▲
    #NZD -0.93 %▲
    #MOFuturesFX
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 09 September 2018 at 18:24 GMT
    trader
    Russian Federation
    Ключевые события:

    30 сентября — 3 октября: Съезд консервативной партии
    17-18 октября: Саммит ЕС. Первоначальный дедлайн для обозначения общих тезисов соглашения, регулирующего будущие отношения Европы и Британии
    31 октября: Первоначальная дата завершения переговоров
    Ноябрь: Возможно проведение экстренного саммита (еще не подтверждено)
    13-14 декабря: Саммит ЕС. Расценивается как запасной вариант для согласования окончательного варианта сделки
    29 марта 2019: Британия выходит из Евросоюза
    Read the Squawk
  • Article / 04 September 2018 at 12:29 GMT

    Markets unnerved by trade war escalation

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Markets unnerved by trade war escalation
    Financial markets are growing increasingly nervous ahead of Thursday, when President Trump is expected to slap another round of punitive tariffs on Chinese imports. The dollar is seeing some broad-based gains while stocks are trading lower.
    Read the article
  • Squawk / 31 August 2018 at 20:32 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    Canada
    U.S.-Canada Trade Talks to Resume Next Week After No Deal Agreed

    President Trump sent a formal notice to Congress stating that he still intends to sign a revised version of Nafta by late November. That statement said he was willing to proceed only with Mexico, but that he is also open to continuing negotiations with Canada.

    USDCAD at 1.3050 in downtrend from June 27 below the 1.3120 area.

    Arguably, Canada needs a trade deal with the US far more than the US needs one with Canada. The US economy is bigger and better able to withstand any CAD?US trade disruption.

    For now, Canadian politicians talking about more talks next week is just face-sving noise. Trump wants the Canadian dairy supply management system scrapped. Turdeau says "no" He needs the Quebec votes and the "Big Three" Diary producers, Saputo, Agropur and Parmalat told him so
    Read the Squawk
    01 September
    John Shaw John  Shaw
    Trump could shut Canada with a tweet.
    Our junior ex-part time drama teacher is trying to embed LGBTFQF rights into the deal and the US is laughing at...
  • Squawk / 24 August 2018 at 20:41 GMT
    trader
    Russian Federation
    EUR/USD
    В случае если пара отыграет "А-В-С":
    daily murrey 0/8 ,само по себе этот уровень один из самых сильных уровней сопротивления и поддержки,которого пробить не так уж легко, уровень - 1.17188 , после взятие этого уровня ожидаю откат пары к 1.1475/1.1440
    Если пара волну "В" отыграет треугольник,то пара должны с откатами сразу взять уровень между 1.196/1.21 и после уйти в бок, в итоге с выходом вниз к 1.07+- в этом случае волна "[a]" of "B" может отыграть и двойной зигзаг, и тройной зигзаг

    В другом случае же пара может отыграть в волне "[а]" начальный диагональ ,а в волне "[с]" конечный, для это для образование волны "[а]" жду цену на 1.16933/1.17188 откуда откат для "(ii)" на 1.1475/1.1440, после "(iii)" на уровне 1.17790/1.18145, а волна "(v)" тогда примерно завершится на уровне 1.18373/1.18723 и уже после хороший откат ,примерно до 1.151/1.154
    Волна "[в]" of "B" может быть (треугольник,флэт) в любом структуре
    weekly MA 100 ~ 1.1468 в дальнейшем будет играть роль поддержки
    Read the Squawk
    27 August
    fxtime fxtime
    FWIW I had this.....maddeningly I was sure that we would drop to 1.1265 then rally grrrr shows I was over confident so i was late to catch...
    27 August
    La tahzan La  tahzan
    Do not hurry now! Now it will play small waves, approximately at the level of 1.171 / 1.172. and then the price will drop to 1.15 /...
    28 August
    La tahzan La  tahzan
    один из вариантов
  • Squawk / 13 August 2018 at 19:27 GMT
    trader
    Russian Federation
    Long-term bottoms in the MSCI Turkey Index (in US$) occurred after 70% drawdowns. We're at 60% right now.
    Read the Squawk
    13 August
    La tahzan La  tahzan
    EU SAYS AWARE OF POTENTIAL IMPACT ON EU BANKS FROM TURKEY. 87 billion Spain exposure, 38 billion french banks and 20 billion Italians. Non hedge
  • Squawk / 05 August 2018 at 21:06 GMT
    Hola y'all, I am back from vacation and looking forward to going to work. With that in mind here is an interesting stat (from back in May 30 at the time 110 days in) On Tursday it will be 181 days, so that statistics would have it that if we don't make a new all time high by then, we join all the other corrections that lasted at least 180 days and became bear markets. Also my demos of orderflow software and a few other indicators have expired and so I now am back to using excel to find something to have fun with...
    Read the Squawk
    07 August
    fxtime fxtime
    90/180/270/360 cycle events are common due to rollover periods.Repo markets being the biggest market rollover obviously will churn contracts well before expiry date stamps to maximise distortions...
    07 August
    Qi2 Qi2
    That makes sense :) also looks like we are churning higher. I'm surprised, given the mess the world is in!
  • Squawk / 02 August 2018 at 11:07 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Bank of England with a more hawkish hike than expected. The BoE hiked the policy rate as expected by 25 basis points and offered slightly more hawkish language in the guidance than was perhaps expected. As well, the MPC voted 9-0 versus perhaps 7-2 or even 8-1 expected, also somewhat hawkish at the margin. Sterling is a bit firmer in response, with EURGBP off a bit toward the lows of the day (big zone there is 0.8800-25) . Interest rate reaction suggest this was no shocker, however, and we'll have to have a look at the Carney press conference up shortly for further spin. On the margin, this is sterling bullish so far...

    Potentially holding back sterling traders from committing risk at the moment is the prospect of UK Prime Minister May's meeting with French president Macro tomorrow, as signaling from Macron will be closely scrutinized in the wake of that meeting for signs that his stance on Brexit is thawing, something that has been detected in German Chancellor recently.
    Read the Squawk
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