Romania
Age 42
Trading strategy
Trader for commodities, volatile products, some stocks and FX, all based on fundamentals respecting the market sentiment.
Biography
To long (but stable) to write it here.

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4 Followers
Write a Squawk to FireWire
  • Squawk / 22 December 2015 at 19:13 GMT
    Commercial Manager / Company of Romania
    Romania
    Prepare oil positions for market sentiment despite the increase at record levels of oil, gasoline and jet fuel inventories! Risks when API and EIA will show data: A. The distillates stock risks to be lower due a very low import (lower demand of industry this period). B. The statistical indicators show a beginning of rebound due A.
    Last weeks statistics (December 02; 09; and 16;):
    1. Refinery inputs = 16.8; 16.7; 16.6; million barrels per day
    2. Refineries operable capacity = 94.5%; 93.1%; 91.9%; usage percent
    3. Crude oil imports = 7.7; 7.5; 7.9; million barrels per day
    4. Crude oil inventories = +1.2; -3.6; +4.8; million barrels = levels not seen last 80 years
    5. Gasoline imports = 433,000; 648,000; 660,000; barrels per day
    6. Gasoline inventories = +0.1; +0.8; +1.7; million barrels = in upper half of average range
    7. Distillate fuel imports = 218,000; 58,000; 84,000; barrels per day
    8. Distillate fuel inventories = +3.1; +5.0; +2.6; million barrels = in upper half of average range
    Read the Squawk
    4y
    ozy ozy
    Global Petroleum and other Liquids Supply&Consumption 2013/2014/2015/2016
    Non-OPEC Production 54.44 56.92 58.10 57.74
    OPEC Production 36.42 36.35 37.43 38.06
    OPEC Crude Oil Portion 30.12 30.08 30.98 31.29
    Total World Production 90.86...
    4y
    FireWire FireWire
    Great summary Ozy. Thanks for sharing it. Anyway prepare stronger for the Crude oil stock. The decrease of crude is a surprise and we will find in...
    4y
    ozy ozy
    I think opec will act if they don't see any recover on price till feb. 16... if I'm not wrong one of the opec delegate said that.....
  • Squawk / 18 December 2015 at 15:40 GMT
    Senior Analist / Robotic Solutions Fx
    Bolivia
    WTI Chart Analysis - Great Opportunity to BUY

    Here are some interesting tipping points in WTI Crude (Black Gold)
    I think the down trend is ending, and we can have a very nice opportunity to BUY crude for the next year!

    Minimum target u$ 62 USD and then u$ 77 over time (be patient)

    I recommend to buy at u$ 34 + -

    Another way is to have exposure in stocks related to energy sector that may be interesting!

    Kind regards
    Read the Squawk
    4y
    FireWire FireWire
    So, now I'm thinking serius to the Goldman Sachs prediction of $25/barrel with no spikes or rebound!
    4y
    ozy ozy
    I'm also worried about that price could go to 25...
    4y
    ozy ozy
    anyway I hat to close today my positions of 21 dec. expire, CLF6.. I think it's better to buy long contract, like dec. 2016, CLZ6, now...
  • Video / 16 December 2015 at 8:20 GMT

    Opec turmoil triggers brief return to $100/b oil - OP 2016

    Ole Hansen
    It's hard to imagine crude oil getting anywhere close to $100 a barrel as we end 2015 but Ole Hansen's 'outrageous predictions' have come true before. Saxo Bank's Head of Commodity Strategy suggests that aggressive moves by OPEC to limit supply could catch the market on the hop in 2016. Such a move, he says, could see investors scrambling to re-enter the market on the long side and when you factor in geo-political concerns, such a prediction may not be so outrageous after all.
    watch video
    4y
    FireWire FireWire
    I'll keep my high risk evaluation for some real factors: the overproduction/rig due the conversion of vertical rigs to horizontal rigs, oversupply due Saudi, Russia, Iran, Iraq...
  • 4y
    FireWire FireWire
    Don't forget the oversupply and what Goldman Sachs predicted ($25/barrel)! Give me one more reason or risk factor (excepting Baker and Hughes horizontal rigs closed) for a...
    4y
    ozy ozy
    yes, goldman predicted 25$, but it's in the same conditions, as oversupply continius.. but, we have to consider also what opec told, if the prices don't recover...
    4y
    rhodium rhodium
    Hi Fire & Ozy, whoever says whatever they think.....and they predicted 25 $, okay, does it mean WTI would slip directly to? And has not to follow...
  • 4y
    rhodium rhodium
    Yes O'neill.......I updated it 4 days back.... :)
    4y
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Hi rhodium: I didn't see your update, but it falls into the category of "great minds think alike" :)
    4y
    ozy ozy
    Thanks Michael and Rhodium.
  • Squawk / 05 December 2015 at 16:09 GMT
    Commercial Manager / Company of Romania
    Romania
    "Drop in oil drilling is BEARISH for oil" and you will ask me why? Because the drop is just for the old vertical rigs. You must take in consideration that no horizontal rig has been closed!!! Even more, if you will take a look to the number and to the percentage of horizontal rigs you will see these growing from weak to weak (on Baker & Hughes rig count reports). Now the percent is 72% horizontal rigs versus 28% of vertical rigs and this is the strongest bearish sign ever, with real numbers for the future (the statistical fundamentals miss this data). The horizontal exploatation is few times more productive and also explains the increase of production/rig (if you will study the EIA reports). Take a look here for more bearish factors: http://www.marketexploit.com/risk-factors-for-the-biggest-decrease-of-oil-price-in-the-history/
    Read the Squawk
    4y
    ozy ozy
    percentage grow of horizontal rigs versus vertical ones doesn't mean horizontal rigs count grow... I mean, if you see this friday again, without any horizontal rig cloesed...
    4y
    FireWire FireWire
    Yes Ozy, it is very true, this Friday there was no horizontal rig increase, but the Friday before the last Friday there was an increase of 4...
    4y
    FireWire FireWire
    As I promised to Ozy: there is a new Baker Hughes rig count record for rigs closed in the same time this Friday: Horizontal -15 and Vertical...
  • Squawk / 11 November 2015 at 9:49 GMT
    Commercial Manager / Company of Romania
    Romania
    Bad news for oil support in November 2015.
    According to the Friday report of Baker and Hughes there was a decrease of Directional and Vertical US oil and gas rigs, but a significant increase of the Horizontal rigs (actual:585, Net change: +8, Previous:577). The horizontal extraction is the most efficient way and the most productive ever, gaining percents week by week. To view the differences and the efficiency of the drilling methods please take a look on http://www.marketexploit.com/bad-news-for-oil-support-in-november-2015/ (here is not enough space).
    Read the Squawk
  • 4y
    rhodium rhodium
    May Oil not wait till 2020 to hit 80 $.........
    May cross 70 $ on same day next year..........
  • Squawk / 06 November 2015 at 13:37 GMT
    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    US Data is magnificent

    NFP 271,000 Avg Hourly Earnings 0.4% U/E 5.0%

    A great number and it removes much of the suspense over the Fed's intentions. The Fed will use this number to raise the Fed Funds Rate in December. Maybe they could even have a special meeting so as to shake off the mantle of being behind the curve...but that is a small prospect.

    Equities are lower...what a curious world we live in when positive economic data spooks the equity market. Still we have become too closely wed to the zero rate environment.

    In the longer run punching some positivity into the yield curve may allow banks to start earning some margin on lending progress.
    Read the Squawk
    4y
    Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
    Looking at DEC 15 if it breaks 44.53 is see a sharper correction to the 40.00 --37.60 area as seen at end of August.
    4y
    FireWire FireWire
    Hi Steph. Usually, the US data is magnificent for 1 maybe 2 weeks. I'm looking for somebody who is quantifying the numbers, the average and the bottom....
    4y
    vanita vanita
    Thanks steve
  • Article / 06 November 2015 at 10:12 GMT

    Russia rolls over day of reckoning

    Russia oil and gas expert
    United Kingdom
    Russia rolls over day of reckoning
    The central bank of Russia cut its forecast for 2015 capital outflows. Much of the decrease, however, seems to have come from refinancing or rolling over debt into 2016, and Russia's creditors could call in their debts if the Urals oil price drops below the critical $50/barrel level.
    Read the article
    4y
    Nadia Kazakova Nadia Kazakova
    The other project is now called Power of Siberia-2 (formerly Altai pipeline). It is also known as the western route, because it is supposed to transport the...
    4y
    elroz elroz
    Reserves are up by $21 billion in December from April to $371 billion. Gold component is now up to 1393 tons, purchased with rubles. External debt is...
    4y
    Nadia Kazakova Nadia Kazakova
    Hello, You are right, the FX and gold reserves have stabilised, and have been replenished by purchasing gold.

    I think, however, that the FX reserves might start...
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