Switzerland
Biography
Recently retired project manager, healthcare sector. Currently working on economic development in northern South America and Caribbean with particular focus on agriculture.

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Followers
Write a Squawk to dbp
  • Video / 24 March 2014 at 12:39 GMT

    Jakobsen: Why China can't fail

    Angus Walker
    More bad economic data from China: the latest HSBC Purchasing Managers Index shows deeper contraction and mainly in the private sector. Is the much fabled Chinese hard landing rushing up to hit the world’s second largest economy?
    watch video
    5y
    dbp dbp
    This may well be true, but the concern is that any shock could set off cascading consequences across the world. And, as we have seen in...
  • Squawk / 16 August 2013 at 6:36 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Macro comment:

    While the market consensus is now 90% certain there will be tapering in September, the gap between reality and consensus is the biggest ever. Yesterday saw dominant names like Cisco and Wal-Mart downgrade their forward looking numbers, Philly Fed tanked - AND - Obama handling of the economy in polls also COLLAPSED:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/163985/obama-economic-approval-slips.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication

    Point?

    There will more QE not less- the pundit analyse market via linear relationship ignoring taders/people are cyclical in their approach to life - hence - with lag this is low in unemployment, high in rates, and there is probably - despite this morning and yday negative markets - another high in S&P ahead by end of Q3 (1770/1800). Clearly the negative crowd will point to VIX increase in vol - but being a simple man I will remain constructive (Bought @ 1662/64) yday untill 100 SMA is broken (1623/20 on a two day close.
    Read the Squawk
    6y
    dbp dbp
    Steen, you are a rational man and you always make good sense. But, I don't believe either the markets or the policy-makers are rational. It seems...
  • Article / 14 May 2013 at 10:17 GMT

    The Bermuda Triangle of economics

    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    The Bermuda Triangle of economics
    The economic Bermuda Triangle is keeping us on alert. Japan saved investors in the first two quarters of this year by going full in. Reality is now creeping back via higher JGB yields, weak global growth and the looming German and Japanese elections.
    Read the article
    6y
    Cyprustrader Cyprustrader
    Thanks Steen! An e-mail is on its way!

    Best regards
    6y
    Dan H Dan H
    "Japan will not go bankrupt inside 12 months or even 12 years" I just want to ask how do you come to this conclusion? They have above...
    6y
    Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
    The Balanced Portfolio that Steen talks about has gone live today. The introductory post can be found here: http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/introducing-saxo-banks-balanced-portfolio-570953696
  • Squawk / 02 April 2013 at 12:14 GMT
    Head of Equity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    The biggest divergence within global equities the last year has undoubtedly been the general market's rally versus the poor performance among mining companies (see chart). Especially February and March have been brutal for mining stocks, something that also hit our Global Value Equity Portfolio in March. Is it time to snap up mining companies?
    Read the Squawk
    6y
    bhowe bhowe
    I won't consider miners until they show some move up! IMHO
    6y
    fxtime fxtime
    The spread between the two indexes seem large ... possible.arbitrage? Not my markets so will ignore but interesting all the same :-)
    6y
    dbp dbp
    These are great share prices. Without a capitulation it seems unlikely they have much downside from here. However, one must consider the likelihood of an economic recovery...
  • Squawk / 13 March 2013 at 9:29 GMT
    Head of Equity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    I haven't checked this ratio in a long time. US Household Debt Service Ratio is down to 10.6 percent as of 3Q 2012 on par with the levels we saw in 92-94 and 80-84 (see chart). Of course the Fed's unusual actions have pushed down the interest rates to levels never observed before and this impacts the ratio. However, if you adjusted the figures for the interest rate level there is no doubt that US households have been extraordinarily good at reducing debt and their financial leverage; which in the end is always the foundation for the next economic boom.
    Read the Squawk
    6y
    Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
    And here is the chart.
    6y
    fxtime fxtime
    Definately an area to watch as this could rapidly ramp consumer consumption and housing affordability....sadly the UK is clearly lagging behind.
    6y
    dbp dbp
    I think you will find that most of the drop in US credit card debt is the result of write-offs. Indeed, there have been indications that consumers...
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