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Intraday mean-reversion trades using overbought/sold technical signals, pattern recognition
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Write a Squawk to Bullionaire
  • Article / 09 August 2017 at 11:00 GMT

    Oil torn between rising output and falling inventories — #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Oil torn between rising output and falling inventories — #SaxoStrats
    Crude oil has settled into a relatively tight range after the July surge that was driven by short-covering as the Saudis cut exports and US inventories showed further declines. The upside remains capped as rising production in the US and Libya are likely to offset inventory declines. Fresh US oil inventory figures are awaited later today from the US Energy Information Administration.
    Read the article
    2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA result and reaction: A 6.4m bbl reduction in crude oil inventories (on lower imports) being offset by a 3.4m bbl rise in gasoline. Production dropped 7k...
    2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Imports from key Opec members showed a 1m b/d drop to second lowest since Feb 2016
    2y
    Bullionaire Bullionaire
    What about flare up in North Korean tensions?
  • 2y
    Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
    I agree with Ole; this is still pointing higher. I think we'll soon revisit 1280.3 then 1298.8, the latter being the early June high. 1267 (all these...
    2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Thank you for your insights Clive
    2y
    Bullionaire Bullionaire
    Welcome back, Ole.
  • Squawk / 14 June 2017 at 18:18 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FOMC hikes rate as expected, guidance not as dovish as many feared. The Fed outlined a plan for reducing its balance sheet starting "this year" (with caveat that economy performs as expected) that starts with $10B in total per month divided between Treasuries and MBS and ratchets the unwinding higher in ensuing months. The dot plot was very little changed (still pointing to one more rate hike this year) and in the economic forecasts, the Fed lowered PCE inflation projections significantly for this year in line with recent developments, but only slightly lowered the lower bound for the central tendency for the PCE and PCE core in 2018 by 0.1%. Unemployment projection was also lowered.

    All in all, this is not as dovish as the market might have feared, given the weak data earlier today. The statement contained no real concerns on the outlook or notable alterations relative to the May statement. More to come.

    Yellen presser at 1830 GMT.
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    Romanatrader Romanatrader
    Mr Hardy, should I close long on EUR/USD?
    2y
    spangles spangles
    Depends on your time scale. Personally, long.
  • 2y
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    James21--Check out the chart-Note the 4 YEAR period when EURUSD when moved above 1.1430
    2y
    Raneta Leonid Raneta Leonid
    It's going to 1,6
  • Squawk / 14 June 2017 at 13:51 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil trades on the back foot ahead of EIA's 'Weekly Petroleum Status Report' at 1430 GMT. A double dose of price negative news has triggered the latest weakness. The API yesterday reported another counter seasonal rise in US crude inventories, this time by 2.75 million barrels. The IEA in their 'Monthly Oil Market Report' today said that non-Opec oil production growth could meet demand growth in 2018. This would leave limited room for Opec to increase production post the current 9 month extension.
    Today's EIA report is surveyed to show a drop in oil stocks by 2.4 million barrels and gasoline by 1.2 million. Last week saw total oil and fuel inventories rise by a combined 15.5 million barrels, the biggest weekly jump since 2008.
    That jump was triggered by lower exports together with higher imports and weaker refinery and gasoline demand (see table below). WTI needs a break above $47.80 before stabilizing
    IEA link: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
    2y
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    Similarly in the heat icecream will be cheaper, because street vendors increased inventorys. - !
    2y
    bossanova_jazz bossanova_jazz
    How about the LPG price ?? Is there any side effect from qatar banned?
  • Squawk / 14 June 2017 at 12:38 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Ugly US data ahead of FOMC meeting. US May CPI data came in lower than expected (+1.7% for the core year-on-year was the biggest downer for those looking for reflation) and headline retail sales actually fell in May, while the core was out at 0.0% month-on-month. This is very weak data and has the market looking for an even more dovish tilt from the Fed at tonight's meeting. We're watching US yields as a barometer for USD weakness - as a push to new lows for the cycle would weigh on the US dollar. Hard to see the Fed trying to entirely look through this data.
    Read the Squawk
    2y
    Market Predator Market Predator
    US10Y significantly above 200DMA!
    2y
    Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson
    Technical
    The US 10 Year Note is forming what looks like an Ascending triangle/Rising wedge. The upper line is rising slightly hence the reason for it could...
    2y
    Morris Morris
    Kim in terms of US rate hike what does this chart suggest?
  • 2y
    Bullionaire Bullionaire
    Any views on Nikkei ?
    2y
    www.koolpips.com www.koolpips.com
    nice views
    2y
    fredajerusha fredajerusha
    This comment has been redacted
  • 2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Oil has made two attempts to rally on verbal intervention today, first from Saudi Arabia overnight and this morning from Russia. Both energy ministers talked about extending...
    2y
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    It looks like wasting money from fond of crude price support
    2y
    Vladimir M Vladimir M
    moreeven it looks like that money go own pocket
  • 2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Crude oil inventories fell while gasoline and distillate inventories rose, all by more than expected and driven by another rise in refinery demand to 17.3M b/d. Both...
    2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    The US is moving its oil surplus to gasoline through surging refinery activity and overseas through jump in exports.
    2y
    matsuri matsuri
    Dear Ole, I have 2 questions: why level $45,8 per barrel as support? and do you still think that oil will reach $60 this year and why?...
  • Article / 03 April 2017 at 10:27 GMT

    UPDATE: Trade summary for Q1 2017

    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    The first quarter has been quite a volatile one with the inauguration of Donald Trump and the so-called reflation trade enduring some peaks and troughs. This is my trade summary of returns in Q1.
    Read the article
    2y
    vanita vanita
    Dear Steve,
    I have oil short position @49.25.
    I should wait or closed the position what's your suggest ?
    I can wait if it's likely to cum down or can...
    2y
    Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
    Dear Vanita,

    This oil trade is proving to be asking the question..."How much pain can you take?"

    I have a stop loss at 55 as I see the area...
    2y
    vanita vanita
    Thanks Steve I have put 55.31 as a stoploss so i am to stick with stoploss hope it's make u turn as today after crude inventory .
    Thanks...
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