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Full time Trading of Equity Indexes since 2006

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1 Followers
Write a Squawk to bakrob99
  • 6y
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    Super overall point - NFP not at all what it was ten years ago and nearly impossible to trade any more - that's for sure. Still -...
    6y
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Indeed, John. This is also seen by looking at returns versus surprises:, which does not show much of a (linear) relationship with the S&P 500. It gets...
    6y
    bakrob99 bakrob99
    I think it might be more helpful to measure the volatility from the release time at 8:30 ET rather than the RTH Open.
  • Squawk / 22 March 2013 at 19:36 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    #Cyprus News agency says there will be a 20-25% levy on Bank of Cyprus depos over 100 k to be voted tomorrow

    Greece's Proto Thema says CY parliament to vote on deposit levy tomorrow #cyprus
    Read the Squawk
    6y
    bakrob99 bakrob99
    So, if you had say $101,000 euros on deposit - would you end up with say $76,000 or will they stop at $100,000? And if the...
    6y
    Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
    76k..the loss is the bail in sought by imf and eu
    6y
    bakrob99 bakrob99
    So the EU won't be required to honour the 100k deposit insurance then. This will cause a lot of money shifting out of the other weaker ecos...
  • Article / 20 March 2013 at 15:12 GMT

    How do massive stock market rallies end?

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    How do massive stock market rallies end?
    Now that I am convinced we’ve moved into totally unjustifiable extremes of complacency in risky assets, I am having a look at some historic stock market breaks and how they have unfolded. In that light, the current setup is rather ominous.
    Read the article
    6y
    Brandon Ferro Brandon Ferro
    You're frame of reference is spot on, but you're a little early. Likely 1927, early 1986 or early 1989 (Nikkei). Meaning, the outcome you're predicting...
    6y
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    Zero Hedge posted this article - if you want "colorful" commentary - have a look...
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-22/guest-post-how-do-massive-stock-market-rallies-end
    6y
    Offpiste Offpiste
    Hi John, just revisiting this great post. Wondering whether we getting closer to the trigger point.... Indices retracing after initial sell-off wave? Appreciate your thoughts
  • Squawk / 18 March 2013 at 12:36 GMT
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    Canada
    The Week AFTER Triple/Quad Withcing is historically bearish. And March is weak near the end.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 18 March 2013 at 12:05 GMT
    -
    Canada
    Re: Cyprus parliament vote - I understand it is being postponed until Tuesday
    Read the Squawk
  • 6y
    bakrob99 bakrob99
    What price (lower) would invalid your scenario?
  • Squawk / 07 November 2012 at 12:55 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    US Election comment: Sorry late but was travelling overnight to South Africa, as expected Obama retook the White House and the Congress remains unchanged leaving the massive fiscal cliff bigger and deeper. This is bad news for bi-partisanship, and with a cost of 6 bln. US Dollar to run these negative elections the voters will look for their representative to be responsible. The Post election indicates strong US Dollar and a slightly positive bias to stock markets, but this is a very different year......(as seen by the fact Obama won despite his unemployment rate being elevated...=
    Short-term I am looking for a short-correction in stocks and medium-and long.tern a continuation of the stronger US Dollar. Tonight there is Greece vote on austerity it is expected to pass, but keep an eye out.
    Read the Squawk
    6y
    bakrob99 bakrob99
    GOOD CALL
  • Squawk / 06 July 2012 at 14:29 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Friday Macro: Non-Farm was bad for the QE3 crowd as it was bad, but not bad enough. EURUSD now leads equities. We have had a currency overlay of long 50% USD and 50% in SEK & NOK since Q3-2011 last year, today we sell AUD against these longs based on stall speed world growth and an expected weakning of the AUD economic data. I see equity and FX low in August so again as stated before a "summer of discontent" is here.. The key dates are:
    17/7 Humphrey Hawkins, 1/8 FOMC and 24/8 Jackson Hole.
    I am presently in Stanford US with colleagues from around the world. Wednesday we played footbal - The European team was down 2-0 at half-time WITH my greek colleague playing upfront for us. We took "him out" in 2nd half and won 4-2. Need I say more ? :-) Europe and Greece needs the same thing. Greece is NOT to blame for this crisis, but it has become the one sacrifice we need to reconcile the political and economic lack of reform - only through "substituting" Greece will we move forward. Nice w.e
    Read the Squawk
    7y
    Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
    Latest macro quick analysis
    7y
    bakrob99 bakrob99
    Thanks for your thoughts. I appreciate the commitment.
  • 7y
    yburil yburil
    very partisan, not up to the level of analysis you've done before...
    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012/06/26/
    7y
    bakrob99 bakrob99
    yburil - Thanks for the laugh. A bit of self promotion?
    7y
    yburil yburil
    just a contrarian analysis... you may well argue that Germany is alone in the whole world refusing QE. And way too much politics above (French ministers etc)...
  • Squawk / 14 June 2012 at 12:12 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Stress indicator - Snap shot from today. Highest RISK OFF reading in a long time:
    Read the Squawk
    7y
    Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
    Sorry - Yes, only that the risk(yield) of Spain making new record high (less than four days after the "bail-out" - and that the 2-10 y spread...
    7y
    fxtime fxtime
    bakrob......the 7% yield is generally regarded as an unsustainable yield/repayment rate for governments to be able to pay and reduce their debts. Also we see in the...
    7y
    bakrob99 bakrob99
    Thanks to you both.
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