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Long-term technically-driven strategies underpinned by indicators/pattern recognition
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Write a Squawk to anthclarke
  • Article / 02 May 2016 at 7:29 GMT

    COT: Bullish commodity bets back above 1 million lots

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    COT: Bullish commodity bets back above 1 million lots
    Hedge funds kept up brisk buying last week, with the total net long across 12 major commodities rising by one-third to more than one million lots and grain accounting for most of the increase. Copper saw strong demand in a crazy week for China-dependent commodities.
    Read the article
    3y
    anthclarke anthclarke
    Fundamentals for $JO looking very good on a medium term basis. Regardless of the current supply concerns in Brazil the stronger demand from Asia should drive prices...
  • 3y
    jose pires jose pires
    SL 114.58 ??
    3y
    Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
    Hi Jose, in the article I wrote:
    "...I will go long here but with a stacked sequence of short-term targets and a tight stop. If the...
  • 5y
    anthclarke anthclarke
    In reality not sure that on the whole the EM problems are adding to EUR weakness going forward - more that the structual problems remain in the...
    5y
    anthclarke anthclarke
    EURUSD 200MDA @ 1.33721 ........
    5y
    Neon68 Neon68
    love it! I`m very short
  • Squawk / 08 November 2012 at 17:35 GMT
    GBPJPY Daily. Could drop further and my best performer today, but I close the trade. It´s just not worth waiting for real momentum. Done for the day, have a nice evening, better opportunities will come ! Michael
    Read the Squawk
    7y
    anthclarke anthclarke
    Further tick down today and I believe momentum is building. See my comments below. Could we test a level of 123.00 next week?
    7y
    Tadeusz Browarek Tadeusz Browarek
    You did the right thing closing the trade as 126.19 (23.60%) support level on my daily chart has been reached.

    @anthclarke: Yes, 124.04 (38.20%) may be tested next...
    7y
    MedievalAstrology MedievalAstrology
    Hello Tadeusz, yes I closed it. Main idea behind the trade was my look at the WEEKLY candle and its rejection off the 129.65 major resistance. Also...
  • Squawk / 02 November 2012 at 9:17 GMT
    -
    Australia
    Short GBPJPY?

    Whilst it is expected that the GBP will benefit from continued stabilisation in the Euro zone the economic situation on the home front remains bleak. If growth continues to deteriorate, the likelihood of a change in the UK’s fiscal policy stance and its credit rating would increase. This will give opposing influences on the GBP. A more expansionary fiscal policy would support growth, and through the effect on yields, the GBP. However, if it follows a period of further economic deterioration, the GBP should weaken first.

    The BoJ continued to ease via asset purchases for the 2nd month in a row. Macro data and corporate earnings results remain soft. Political negotiations remain key to ensure that no liquidity squeeze is facedin the period ahead as many see Japan facing its own fiscal cliff amidst the continued weak economic outlook.

    Whilst both economies struggle I think as volatility remains high out 2012, GBPJPY may reverse its recent run up and weaken short-term.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 02 November 2012 at 8:46 GMT
    -
    Australia
    SBM Offshore - Time to buy?

    Interesting to see the announcement earlier in the week that SBM and Talisman have agreed to jointly work on the repairs to the Yme rig. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of these negotiations has placed significant downward pressure on the SBM stock over the previous months. Whilst the final repair costs remain unknown, the new agreement is a better than expected outcome for the company as it may have been faced with costs to replace the rig - or worse yet have been liable for lost production costs etc.

    The company now presents a compelling investment case with the outlook for the FPSO industry remaining very good as the oil industry continues to tap deep water and stranded oil & gas fields. The company has significantly de-risked its profile and trades at a multiple of only 5.6x EBITDA and 6.9x PE.

    Perhaps it is time to buy?

    Disclosure: I am currently long SBM Offshore and may initiate further positions in the next 24 hours.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 30 October 2012 at 22:15 GMT
    Individual trader
    Poland
    GBPJPY: A nice trade for all those disappointed with my last EURGBP discouragement.

    Enter soon GBPJPY short @128.32 SL 129.65 TP 126.70. It has low R/R ratio however I am pretty convinced it will work.
    Read the Squawk
    7y
    anthclarke anthclarke
    Looks like a nice setup.
    7y
    anthclarke anthclarke
    Looks like you hit your TP this morning. I agree with MedievalAstrology's comments above - think momentum is to the downside with further correction next week? Views?...
  • Squawk / 26 October 2012 at 12:03 GMT
    -
    Australia
    African Minerals Ltd - Pure Play on Iron Ore Price

    Open Long @ 277.00 - Stop loss @ 262.50.

    If you believe that a rebound in Iron ore prices will occur in 2013 (I am in this camp) then there is possibly no better trade than AML at present. The Chinese destocking that has occurred earlier in the year helped push prices to a low of USD88 in Sep but these have recovered somewhat. Without going into too much detail Chinese construction activity does appear to be ticking up again (see cement stats, etc) and the inventory reductions cannot continue indefinitely. The AML Tonkolili project in Sierra Leone has the potential to be expanded by 40-50mt.

    Valuation story – the current market cap is very close to the USD 1.5 billion that Shandong Iron & Steel paid for a 25% stake in the company only about 1-year earlier, and with sufficient liquidity and ramp-up going according to plan the company is a perfect pure-play on higher Iron Ore prices in 2013-14 as their production comes on line.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 26 October 2012 at 7:22 GMT
    -
    Australia
    Coffee maintains support despite all the negative market price sentiment. For me given this support, despite the fact we continue to see data that supports record crops and weaker consumption overall - this may present an opportunity to enter a long position in the short-term. Any contradictory data or futher news that producers are witholding supplies from the market and we could see a push higher to 174.00 in the short-term.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 26 October 2012 at 7:18 GMT
    -
    Australia
    UK out of recession and perhaps further easing from the JCB ....... but where are we headed from here? I have opened a small short in GBPJPY ahead of today's release of the BOE working papers ........ and I expect some selling in the GBP as the traders take some profits after the strong run this week.

    Good trading.
    Read the Squawk
    7y
    Kay Xander Mellish Kay Xander Mellish
    Welcome to TradingFloor.com, anth! Look forward to hearing more from you.
    7y
    anthclarke anthclarke
    Solid down move so far today ......
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