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  • 4d
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    I see Trump may be about to target Dairy.....read over to NZD.
  • Video / Monday at 7:30 GMT

    From the Floor: Macron victory sparks mighty relief rally— #SaxoStrats

    #SaxoStrats
    A first-round victory in Sunday's French presidential election for the centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron has ignited a sharp and broad relief rally across financial markets, with equity prices jumping and safe-haven gold and bonds sold off. Macron is tipped to handily defeat the far-right, anti-establishment contestant Marine Le Pen in the second-round ballot on May 7, but worries remain about the June parliamentary election.
    watch video
  • Article / Monday at 7:00 GMT

    Morning Markets: EURUSD basks after Macron win

    Managing editor, TradingFloor.com / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Morning Markets: EURUSD basks after Macron win
    Emmanuel Macron was the favourite going into the first round of the French presidential election and his emergence as victor ahead of the Front National's Marine Le Pen will have him as the red-hot favourite in the run off on May 7. Euro is feeling the glow.
    Read the article
  • Squawk / 23 April 2017 at 18:57 GMT
    Head of Macro Analysis / Saxo Bank
    France
    Fillon and Hamon have stated they would support Macron in 2nd round. As expected, the Republican Front will prevent Le Pen from being elected...Macron will become the next French president.
    Read the Squawk
    6d
    Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
    Well called through the whole saga Dembik - I still remember you in late Jan saying Macron would take gold, way before everyone else jumped on board.

    Big...
    5d
    Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
    Thanks a lot Kay. Next step...legislative elections :)
  • Squawk / 23 April 2017 at 18:09 GMT
    Head of Macro Analysis / Saxo Bank
    France
    Update (interior ministry early estimate):
    Le Pen 24.2%
    Macron 21.4%

    Fillon 20.3%
    Melenchon 17.9%

    But does not change the fact that the market impact should be quite limited…
    Read the Squawk
    6d
    MSN28 MSN28
    Dear Christopher, what do you think would be the impact on EURO if Macron and LePen go to the second round?
    6d
    Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
    We can expect +1% but clearly impact will be limited.
    6d
    Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
    Thanks Cat. We will upload a video tomorrow morning.
  • Squawk / 23 April 2017 at 18:06 GMT
    Head of Macro Analysis / Saxo Bank
    France
    French election / Initial estimates at 20:00 CET (based on a sample of actual votes cast at about 500 polling stations): 23.7% for Macron vs 22% for Le Pen.

    The market has already priced in that Le Pen will be qualified for the second round. Considering that she has not performed much better than in polls released days before the election, the global market impact should be quite limited. I expect that the French stock market will open in green tomorrow morning, bank stocks could rebound a bit, and French bond spread, which has stabilized around 70 basis points in recent weeks, could go down – but global market will certainly not be impacted much. “Business as usual”…

    Quite clear that Macron will be the next president.

    Like in the past, the Republican Front (all but Le Pen) should prevent the leader of the National Front from being elected.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 23 April 2017 at 15:02 GMT
    Head of Macro Analysis / Saxo Bank
    France
    French election / Key points so far:

    • 17:00 CET : turnout at 69.42% versus 70.59% in 2012
    • Like in 2012, pollsters expected a lower turnout but this did not happen. As a reminder, low turnout had helped Le Pen in 2002 to be qualified for the second round.
    • Areas least likely to vote for extremes (like Paris) sees rise in participation. But too early to draw conclusions.

    NO EXIT POLLS (Unnamed polls currently released by Belgium and Swiss media are, therefore, not 100% reliable).

    Projection based on initial counts will be published at 20:00 CET. It should give us an idea of the main trends (counting in urban areas starts later). If too close to call, we will need to wait until 21:00 CET ( FX markets open at that time).
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 23 April 2017 at 13:27 GMT
    Head of Macro Analysis / Saxo Bank
    France
    Turnout in Paris at 24.2 at noon (versus 21.6% in 2012). It seems that areas least likely to vote for extremes sees rise in participation today while whole country was in line with 2012. To be confirmed at 1700 CET.
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