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Squawk / 25 January 2019 at 22:05 GMTDollar Index: Technical Update ; head and shoulders pattern: Daily chart shows forming a right shoulder in inverted head and shoulder pattern, technically above 95.75 can rise again till 96.55.. a break should rise till 98 as per pattern calculation... overall buying in dollar is advised for the coming week as per chart.
Squawk / 21 January 2019 at 6:54 GMTWith Oil, Keep Looking at Trade Data and Newsby Stephen Pope
WTI boosted by two clear driving forces, trade and supply
Any recovery in trade relations between the U.S. and China not until end of January
The decline in operating oil rigs in the U.S. will be reversed
Selling will be the early form after a 3% gain on Friday
See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/fundamental-and-macroeconomic-analysis/with-oil-keep-looking-at-trade-data-and-news/
Squawk / 17 January 2019 at 8:05 GMTUSDCAD bull trend neutralised; USDJPY indecisive
A more aggressive selloff for the USDCAD Forex rate into mid-January, as we had flagged, was assisted by a rebound in the Oil price (benefiting the Canadian Dollar) and has pushed through some notable USDCAD support levels (see below).
This has shifted the intermediate-term outlook for USDCAD from bullish to neutral, with asymmetrical risks towards an intermediate-term shift to bearish.
As expected, the USDJPY currency pair continued the rebound since the “flash crash” that started the year, to push above the 108.90 level, which neutralised the intermediate-term bearish outlook, to set a broader range theme into the second half of January.
See the full article and video analysis here: https://www.forextraders.com/forex-charts/technical-analysis/usdcad-bull-trend-neutralised-usdjpy-indecisive/
Squawk / 15 January 2019 at 6:34 GMTElliott wave Analysis: Crude oil and EURGBP Update by Gregor Horvat
On energy we see price recovering in an impulsive manner, ideally unfolding a bigger three-wave reversal.
With current rally from the 42.46 level comes an indication that a low had been put in place for a former higher degree wave A and that a bigger black wave B correction can be in the making. In such case, a five-wave rally for sub-wave A of B can now be in development which can later look for resistance and a turn into a minor sub-wave B correction near the 55.30 area (area of Fibonacci projection zone of 261.8).
That said, now we are tracking minor wave 4) of A, which can look for support around the Fibonacci projection zone of 38.2 and 50.0.
See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/technical-analysis/elliott-wave-analysis-crude-oil-and-eurgbp-update/
Squawk / 14 January 2019 at 8:24 GMTUSDCAD poised for an intermediate-term bear shift; USDJPY neutral
A broadly more negative tone for the US Dollar has been seen in early 2019, given a more dovish tone from FOMC Members, including the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell.
Furthermore, a global shift to “risk on” has also been seen in early January, with easing trade war concerns.
The above macroeconomic fundamental shifts, alongside a firm rebound in the Oil price (after aggressive weakness in Q4 2018) has seen USDCAD plunge lower, to neutralise an intermediate-term bull trend and threaten an intermediate-term shift to bearish (see below).
USDJPY did seem an aggressive selloff to start the year with a “risk off flash crash”, but the strong subsequent rebound has seen an intermediate-term shift back to a neutral, broader range environment.
See the full article and video analysis here: https://www.forexfraud.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-poised-for-an-intermediate-term-bear-shift-usdjpy-neutral
Squawk / 08 January 2019 at 17:40 GMTElliott wave Analysis: GBPUSD and Crude oil Intraday View by Gregor Horvat
GBPUSD made a five-wave rally from the 1.240 level, and ended it with an EW ending diagonal at the 1.28 level. Current intra-day drop that we see from the highs, can be part of an unfolding a-b-c correction, which can look for support and a bounce near the 1.261/1.255 region.
See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/technical-analysis/elliott-wave-analysis-gbpusd-and-crude-oil-intra-day-view/
Squawk / 21 December 2018 at 7:16 GMTUSDCAD bullish trend re-energized
The “risk off” activity seen from early December has intensified over the past week, with global slowdown concerns impacting negatively on the major commodity currencies, including the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars.
Furthermore, alongside and partially driven by this “risk off” theme, the Oil price continues its path to lower prices as evident throughout Q4, with another acceleration lower into latter December.
This Oil price weakness also puts downside pressures on the Canadian Dollar, propelling USDCAD to new multi-months highs.
Below we look at the technical risks and upside targets for USDCAD.
See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/current-market-analysis/usdcad-bullish-trend-re-energized/
Squawk / 17 December 2018 at 6:08 GMTUSDCHF Aims Higher and Crude OIL Points Lower by Gregor Horvat
USDCHF is currently recovering from the 0.9861 region, giving us an idea of a possibly completed three-wave correction within wave 2, which points to more upside.
If that is the case, then a bullish continuation may now be in play, which can break above the 1.0006 bullish level and above the upper channel line.
These two breaks would confirm a completed pullback, and a five-wave recovery to be in play on the pair.
See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/technical-analysis/usdchf-aims-higher-and-crude-oil-points-lower/
Squawk / 03 December 2018 at 9:04 GMTUSDCAD stays bullish; USDJPY still in an intermediate-term range
The USDCAD forex rate has continued to push erratically higher, still building on the prior advance through 1.3228, a key resistance at, reinforcing the intermediate-term upside threat.
Again, the USDCAD advance has been assisted by a plunging Oil price (with Canada a net exporter of Oil).
The USDJPY currency rate has remained within an intermediate-term range, but we see emerging risks for a more bullish shift, but only signalled by a break above 1.1455.
See the full article and video analysis here: https://www.forextraders.com/forex-charts/technical-analysis/usdcad-stays-bullish-usdjpy-still-in-an-intermediate-term-range/
Squawk / 21 November 2018 at 8:42 GMTUSDCAD stays bullish, but USDJPY is caught in an intermediate-term rang by Steve Miley
We have recently highlighted upside threats for USDCAD and USDJPY.
The ensuing USDCAD surge higher has reinforced the previous push above a key resistance at 1.3228, sustaining the intermediate-term bullish theme.
This has been helped by ongoing weakness in the Oil price, with the Canadian Dollar directly correlated with the price of Oil (as a net exporter)
However, a USDJPY has reflected a more risk averse global backdrop, with major equity markets falling into the second half of November and the Japanese Yen rallying, seen as a safe haven.
This leaves USDJPY in an intermediate-term range.
See the full article and video analysis here: https://www.forextraders.com/forex-charts/technical-analysis/usdcad-stays-bullish-but-usdjpy-is-caught-in-an-intermediate-term-range/