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  • Article / 23 August 2017 at 12:00 GMT

    Commodities face a Trump dump

    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    Commodities face a Trump dump
    A glaring lack of progress by the Trump administration towards US infrastructure renewal has undermined support for industrial and energy commodities, and a selloff could now be just around the corner.
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    1y
    carlosdemarch carlosdemarch
    Dear John, generally speaking commodity prices are more driven by global markets than by what a single man does or doesn't. There are many more variables to...
  • Article / 17 August 2017 at 12:19 GMT

    UK rates too low and GBP significantly undervalued

    Head of Trading / The ECU Group plc
    United Kingdom
    UK rates too low and GBP significantly undervalued
    UK economic data have been encouraging, and the 'peak uncertainty' in business investment may be behind us. We continue to see an impending sharp pivot for inflation, economic sentiment, monetary policy expectations and ultimately currency valuations, as discussed recently. UK rates are too low and sterling undervalued, according to our view of the economy.
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  • Article / 15 August 2017 at 12:08 GMT

    Constructive ambiguity?

    Head of Trading / The ECU Group plc
    United Kingdom
    Constructive ambiguity?
    The British government's preparations for withdrawing from the European Union have entered a new phase, marked by the steady release of papers outlining a 'new deep and special partnership the UK wants to build with the EU'. If that reduces the uncertainty around the UK's Brexit negotiating position, it could have big implications.
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  • Article / 10 August 2017 at 12:13 GMT

    Mexican standoff

    Head of Trading / The ECU Group plc
    United Kingdom
    Mexican standoff
    An increasing conflict between tight labour markets and low wages is among the factors leading us to anticipate a potentially acute pivot for currencies (and stocks). In this Mexican standoff, firms are keeping wages at levels that do not attract new workers at the desired pace. But watch out for a sharp pivot in the US dollar and the pound sterling if employers blink first on wages.
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  • Article / 27 July 2017 at 11:51 GMT

    Surprise package

    Head of Trading / The ECU Group plc
    United Kingdom
    Surprise package
    We have recently argued for a higher EURUSD exchange rate from the point of view of the euro's strength. But now also the US dollar's conspicuous weakness is contributing significantly to driving the currency pair higher. The possibility of an extension of the USD downtrend also opens the prospect of a 'surprise package' in terms of GBP strength.
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    2y
    Morris Morris
    A riveting read! Thanks very much!
    2y
    spangles spangles
    Fascinating
  • 2y
    John G Acher John G Acher
    "In the 11 years since 2005, the economy has never had an annual growth rate above 2.7 percent. (...) So do economists really think that 3...
    2y
    fxtime fxtime
    Good and relevant review...thx for updating. :-)
  • Article / 12 July 2017 at 12:00 GMT

    Binary solution

    Head of Trading / The ECU Group plc
    United Kingdom
    Binary solution
    Although downside risks to the global economy seem to have diminished recently, upside risks have not grown. This backdrop supports a risk-positive, yield-seeking market until inflation (or fiscal stimulus) emerge.
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  • Article / 06 July 2017 at 14:02 GMT

    The timing of 'now'

    Head of Trading / The ECU Group plc
    United Kingdom
    The timing of 'now'
    Financial markets have perceived a pivot in central bankers' forward guidance or policy towards monetary normalisation, but are the markets getting ahead of themselves in relation to Eurozone normalisation?
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    2y
    spangles spangles
    Puts me in mind of a good Devon phrase. "I'll be there directly". Meaning any time in the next two years...
    2y
    fxtime fxtime
    I hear that phrase every day LOL. Cornwall and Devon live by it IMHO LOL.
    2y
    Rogan Rogan
    Reminds me of when a South African says "Just now" he means " later"...took me a while to remember that in Britain it's taken literally
  • Article / 29 June 2017 at 12:27 GMT

    Hawkish pivot

    Head of Trading / The ECU Group plc
    United Kingdom
    Hawkish pivot
    Financial markets have witnessed a notable pivot in the commitment of central bankers to maintaining extraordinary monetary stimulus and, more significantly, in accepting the increasing potential for monetary normalisation. Central bankers seem to be getting increasingly concerned about getting behind the curve.
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    2y
    spangles spangles
    Your euro £ view maybe right. But what happens if we end up with a bunch of anarchists running the country. PM May has a precarious situation....
    2y
    Morris Morris
    You have advanced the view on Your articles from 23 May, 31 May and 16 June that EUR is over extended it would be helpful to indicate...
  • Article / 06 June 2017 at 12:00 GMT

    Putin gets it off his chest in St. Petersburg

    Russia oil and gas expert
    United Kingdom
    Putin gets it off his chest in St. Petersburg
    Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a colourful and assured performance at the St. Petersburg economic forum. Putin comes across not so much as the global manipulator-in-chief, but as a cynical wit who likes to share his jaded views of the world with an agreeable audience.
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    2y
    ka26 ka26
    Putin's speech at the economic forum has nothing to do with business. He can continue to "play" as much as he likes, but now even the last...