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Calendar event / Yesterday at 15:30 GMTpreviousforecastactualHigh Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)-7.323M-2.8M-1.208MHigh Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)+1.699M+1.8M+2.087MHigh Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)+3.811M+1.3M-1.475MMed Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)443.162M441.954MMed Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)226.25M228.337MMed Distillate Stocks (Bbl)125.612M124.137MMed Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)20.53M21.481MMed Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)+0.045M+0.951MMed Refinery Usage95.5%96%95.1%
Calendar event / Tuesday at 21:30 GMT
US API Weekly Statistical BulletinpreviousforecastactualMed Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)+5.4M-10.2MMed Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)+3.6M-2.5MMed Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)+4.3M+712000M
Squawk / Tuesday at 6:50 GMTSterling plunges as Brexit vote is cancelled
The GB Pound FX rate was already looking vulnerable in the run in to the previously scheduled vote in Parliament today on the Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal.
However, the cancellation/ postponement of this vote saw the Pound sell off aggressive early across major G10 currencies, with GBPUSD sending a particularly negative technical signal.
The GBPUSD plunge Monday through key 1.2661/ 58 supports sets the threat still lower into December.
Theresa May is going back to the EU to try to renegotiate the deal, but potential political developments may not allow her time to do so, with growing risks for a Conservative Party leadership challenge, a vote of no confidence in the Government, or a proposal for a second referendum on EU membership.
See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/current-market-analysis/sterling-plunges-as-brexit-vote-is-cancelled/
Squawk / Monday at 8:45 GMTUSDJPY signals an intermediate-term bear shift; USDCAD stays bullish
When we last looked at both USDCAD and USDJPY here on 19th November we noted the USDCAD shift to an intermediate-term bullish outlook and an intermediate-term neutral theme for USDJPY
The early December trade war truce has done little to alleviate global growth concerns and has actually produced a broader shift to a “risk off” environment across global asset classes (underlined by equity market losses).
This activity has also seen a bid to the Japanese Yen, as a safe haven, and for USDJPY the probe below 112.27 switched the intermediate-term outlook from a neutral range to bearish.
However, USDCAD gains to start December have reinforced and maintained an intermediate-term bullish theme.
See the full article and video analysis here: https://www.forexfraud.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-signals-an-intermediate-term-bear-shift-usdcad-stays-bullish
Squawk / Monday at 8:36 GMTAUDUSD bull trend neutralised; NZDUSD bull pressures eased
In our last look at AUDUSD and NZDUSD here on 29th November we highlighted the ongoing intermediate-term bullish outlooks for the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar in the wake a more dovish tone by Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman.
However, a broader shift to a “risk off” scenario across global asset classes in early December (highlighted by equity market selloffs) has seen setbacks for the “risk currencies” amongst the Majors, for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD.
For AUDUSD, the intermediate-term bull trend has been neutralised, whilst the immediate risks for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD are skewed to the downside.
See the full article and video analysis here: https://www.forextraders.com/forex-charts/technical-analysis/audusd-bull-trend-neutralised-nzdusd-bull-pressures-eased/
Squawk / Monday at 7:57 GMTShaun Downey’s Weekly Recap and Outlook, week commencing 10th December 2018
GBP crosses in focus into key Brexit vote
GBPAUD hits our downside target and rebounds
GBPNZD rebound less impressive
EURGBP cautious upside breakout attempt
GBPCAD trapped sideways
US$ Index holding key monthly support
Euro future caped by resistance
AUDUSD fails back from below resistance, poised at key support
See the full video analysis here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/technical-analysis/shaun-downeys-weekly-recap-and-outlook-week-commencing-10th-december-2018/
Squawk / Monday at 7:00 GMTS&P 500 poised for an intermediate-term bearish shift
In two reports we published last week we highlighted the intermediate-term bearish technical signals sent by European and UK equity indices (the German DAX, the pan-European DJ EuroSTOXX 50 and the UK’s FTSE 100)
A lacklustre rebound effort by these indices and US equity averages on Friday sustains the short-term negative theme and leaves downside risks for this week.
The US key, broad benchmark average, the S&P 500, is poised just above the key, late October low (at 2603.0 for the December 2018 future), with risks growing for an intermediate-term bearish shift below here.
See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/current-market-analysis/sp-500-poised-for-an-intermediate-term-bearish-shift/
Squawk / Monday at 6:56 GMTWheat Technicals Are Bullish Across The Board by Stephen Pope
USDA reports may reveal wheat planting is somewhat low this season
A recovery in prices looks likely given positive technicals
The quality of Russian product is declining
Look for the bullish sentiment to prevail and will take prices higher
See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/fundamental-and-macroeconomic-analysis/wheat-technicals-are-bullish-across-the-board/
Squawk / Friday at 7:04 GMTEuropean equity indices join the FTSE 100 in bearish shifts
In yesterday’s report here we noted the plunge lower by the FTSE 100 future for an intermediate-term bearish technical shift.
Further losses for the FTSE 100 on Thursday reinforced this view, with the UK benchmark average joined in the negative technical development by major European equity indices.
Both the German DAX index and the pan-European DJ EuroSTOXX 50 pushed down through multi-month lows to signal more aggressively bearish technical analysis outlooks into December.
See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/current-market-analysis/european-equity-indices-join-the-ftse-100-in-bearish-shifts/
Squawk / 06 December 2018 at 16:24 GMTGermam DAX and NZDJPY Elliot Wave Technical Analysis by Gregor Horvat
German DAX can be unfolding a bigger, overlapping decline down from 11692 level, which we see it as a EW ending diagonal. A EW ending diagonal is a powerful reversal pattern, that consists out of five waves, and each of them has three sub-waves. That said, at the moment we see price unfolding final stages of a wave 3, that can look for support and a bullish reversal near the 10880 region, from where corrective wave 4 can follow. This wave 4 can take price towards the 11200 area, where former gap can be covered.
For the full article and NZDJPY analysis please go here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/current-market-analysis/germam-dax-and-nzdjpy/