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  • Squawk / 28 March 2019 at 6:49 GMT
    Founder, Owner, Director / Market Chartist
    United Kingdom
    US equity averages threaten deeper corrections

    US equity averages have taken a lead on the downside this week, with the previously more vulnerable European equity indices having taken global markets lower in latter March, during the current correction phase.
    The European equity average selloff has more recently been driven by slowing economic data, of note being last Friday’s (22nd March) German Manufacturing PMI data.
    The US equity vulnerability since last week has primarily been due to concerns regarding plunging US Treasury (UST) yields, with the 3 month-10yr section of the UST yield curve (YC) having inverted.
    The inversion of this segment of the UST YC has previously been a precursor to a recession in coming years.
    Our focus today is on the broad US benchmark average, the S&P 500.

    See the full article here:
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  • Squawk / 26 March 2019 at 6:31 GMT
    Founder, Owner, Director / Market Chartist
    United Kingdom
    Yen stays strong in risk off scenario

    Last Friday’s very weak German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data was another blow to the global economic backdrop, with concerns throughout this year of a global slowdown in China, through Asia Pacific and increasingly also in Europe.
    This has seen riskier asset classes come under negative forces over the past week, with global equity averages suffering notable corrective losses as we have shifted to a “risk off” phase.
    A very dovish Federal Reserve at their 20th March Meeting has seen longer term US Treasury (UST) yields plunge back lower and an inversion of the 3 months-10yr sector of the UST yield curve. This yield curve inversion is often seen as a sign of a future recession.
    In the Forex space, the main beneficiary of this shift to a “risk off” scenario has been the Japanese Yen as a safe haven.
    Here we focus on USDJPY:
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  • Squawk / 04 October 2018 at 8:23 GMT
    Founder, Owner, Director / Market Chartist
    United Kingdom
    US Treasury selloff leaves equities vulnerable and risks to key S&P 500 support

    A plunge in prices across US Treasuries over the past 24 hours to reinforce higher yield moves across the UST yield curve seen since September, in reaction to a more hawkish tone from Jerome Powell.
    This points to still higher yields in the short-term.
    Furthermore, this price action has put some negative pressure on US equity markets.
    The S&P 500 future is probing a key up trend line from the summer, below which could see a more negative technical picture.

    See the full article here:
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  • Squawk / 29 August 2018 at 8:52 GMT
    Founder, Owner, Director / Market Chartist
    United Kingdom
    “Risk on” theme into today’s US GDP and Personal Consumption data by Steve Miley

    Today, Wednesday 29th August we get the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also the Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices data. The latter of particularly significance as it is seen as a preferred measure for inflation pressures by the US Federal Reserve and FOMC.
    With the S&P 500 recently making a new record high above the early 2018 peak (from January), generally markets are in a bullish, “risk on” stage.
    This leaves the technical bias for further equity market gains, aiming the S&P 500 higher.
    Also, this would point to a higher threat for USDJPY and likely lower US Treasury prices, which equals higher yields.

    See the full article here:
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  • Article / 08 August 2018 at 10:25 GMT

    Weekly Bond Update: Never mind Turkey, here's India

    Fixed income Specialist / Saxo Bank
    Weekly Bond Update: Never mind Turkey, here's India
    The past few weeks have been among 2018's most interesting as volatility returns, at least where central bank balance sheets do not remain historically swollen. For investors looking to jump into the EM space, Turkey might look tempting but in light of ongoing uncertainties we think India is actually the better bet.
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  • Squawk / 02 August 2018 at 6:43 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Many of my 1,000+ FX followers already subscribe with me,
    so please ignore this Squawk but to all others: If you would
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    Morris Morris
    Is it true that symmetric can break either way?
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