Article / 15 November 2012 at 12:27 GMT

See your 2013 Outrageous Prediction alongside Saxo Bank's own

Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
Denmark

More than a decade ago Saxo Bank began its yearly exercise of selecting 10 Outrageous Predictions – ten unlikely, but far more likely than appreciated events that could transpire in the coming year and would have significant consequences. Here at the end of 2012, we are at it again and we are harnessing the power of social media to allow our readers a chance to get a piece of the predictive action.

On December 18 we will publish our own 10 Outrageous Predictions, but as an appendix to these we will also publish the best of those contributed by our colleagues as well as predictions from you, our readers. Our top choices will include  a mention of those that have been most popular and a few that we thought were the most clever and thought provoking. That’s what these predictions are all about – not an attempt to predict the future or to be outrageous for the sake of it, but an attempt to spark debate and think outside the box.

You can share your Outrageous Predictions right here on TradingFloor.com as comments at the bottom of this article or publish them as stand-alone comments or “squawks” as we call them in our online trading community. (You can input them right on our Outrageous Predictions page - or simply tag them with the topic "Outrageous Predictions." ) You are also welcome to post them on our specially created Twitter account @SaxoOP and engage in debate there. 

Before you publish: keep the spirit of an Outrageous Prediction in mind
Outrageous Predictions are considered as “fat tail” predictions, i.e. events that are unlikely to happen, but are perhaps far more likely than the market appreciates.  Should the events happen they would change the outlook and performance of markets.

Categories
The contributed Outrageous Predictions must be within the following categories and have relevant market impact:

  • Geo-political
  • Forex
  • Equities
  • Commodities
  • Fixed Income
  • Other

The cut-off date for inclusion in the publication is December 4.

Saxo Bank reserves the right to use external contributions as inspiration for some of our own Outrageous Predictions. We will strive to make all contributions that meet our criteria (subject to editorial approval) available. The contributions that appear in the appendix to our own Outrageous Predictions will be listed anonymously, meaning no credit will be given for them.

I hope you enjoy this exercise and encourage you to think out of the box.

Let the “craziness” begin!

Steen

See a video with Steen Jakobsen about the Outrageous Predictions.

About Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions
Saxo Bank’s yearly Outrageous Predictions report has always been one of its more popular publications, and understandably so, as it frees us and our readers from the constraints of the high probability events in the middle of the supposed bell curve of possibilities. 

The “fat tail” concept is inspired by option theory and looks at the tail-risk – an event which is based on odds or logic and has a very small chance of happening, but somehow still happens far more often than any model is able to predict.

See Saxo Bank’s outrageous predictions from previous years.

1y
benlouro benlouro
2013 outrageous predictions geo-political: USA "war" on China, probably not a conventional war with weapons but a different kind of war... A war to gain advantage over the "wonderful new world"... Africa.
2013 outrageous predictions forex: Currencies war is over. G7 fixed the exchange rates for all their currencies for the next 10 yrs.
2013 outrageous predictions equities: MSCI World makes 100% in the same year. After a big crash of more than 50%, equities rebound fast and furious... Why: because bond yields are zero, Goverments are broke, currencies are pegged, commodities are expensive... and money has no other way to go.
1y
benlouro benlouro
2013 outrageous predictions commodities: World Commodities are exchanged not in USD not in EUR but in.... other commodities. Example: Europe sells water to Australia and receives gold to go to Africa and exchange for Oil. All this transactions will be made in tons or any other quantative measure but will not be paied with money. Transaction are made by continents and distributed around respective countries.
2013 outrageous predictions fixed income: all fixed income investments go to???? Companies. Why: good governments don´t issue debt, 2012 fixed income buble is burst, other governments issue debt in local currencies (currencies that no one wants to invest like drachmas, pesetas, etc).
1y
benlouro benlouro
this are my extreme outrageous predictions for 2013. of course, behind this extreme views I have some more reasonable.... but those one are not some fun to share. thanks tradingfloor for this oportunity.
1y
fxtime fxtime
USA and European fiat currencies become worthless and gold returns as a standard due to China reducing its exposure to USA treasury bonds and looks more for haven FX with strong commodity backing eg gold or primary metals...copper etc. Finally Germany pulls out of the Euro ! The deutche mark returns and soars in value temporarily thus destroying their export competitiveness.
1y
scoobe scoobe
Scoobe01 Outrageous Prediction for The Year Ahead 2013 are From the
Index Pairs Scoobe trades Bests
The EurUsd Pair Euro will not trade below 1.2880 ever again, or within your life time.
This years 2013 Euro Top expected in July 2013 will not break Double Top Formation Level 1.3893

The Dow30 Index, The Dow 30 Index at Double Top Formation this year 2013 will not exceed 15351
The Dow Jones Index will not break below 12432 this year 2013.

Sweet Crude Oil, Sweet Crude Oil, The Support Level at 83.35 will not be Surprised or Triggered now or during December this year 2012 or within 2013.
Sweet Crude Oil, At Double Top Formation this year 2013 will not Surprise or Trigger Resistance Level 118.87
Peter Comments As Scoobe01 at TradingFloor/com, Any Questions for Scoobe ?
1y
scoobe scoobe
This years 2013 Euro Top expected in July 2013 will not break Double Top Formation Level 1.3893. New Response: This quote is wrong: Sorry for mistake
1y
scoobe scoobe
The Dow Jones Index will not break below 12432 this year 2013.
New Response: This quote is wrong: Sorry for mistake
The Dow Jones Index will not break below 12432 within 5 months of 2013.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group provides an execution-only service and all information provided on Tradingfloor.com is solely for general information. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. Saxo Bank Group will not be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available as part of the Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Any information which could be construed as investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such should be considered as a marketing communication. Furthermore it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Please read our disclaimers:
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