See your 2013 Outrageous Prediction alongside Saxo Bank's own
More than a decade ago Saxo Bank began its yearly exercise of selecting 10 Outrageous Predictions – ten unlikely, but far more likely than appreciated events that could transpire in the coming year and would have significant consequences. Here at the end of 2012, we are at it again and we are harnessing the power of social media to allow our readers a chance to get a piece of the predictive action.
On December 18 we will publish our own 10 Outrageous Predictions, but as an appendix to these we will also publish the best of those contributed by our colleagues as well as predictions from you, our readers. Our top choices will include a mention of those that have been most popular and a few that we thought were the most clever and thought provoking. That’s what these predictions are all about – not an attempt to predict the future or to be outrageous for the sake of it, but an attempt to spark debate and think outside the box.
You can share your Outrageous Predictions right here on TradingFloor.com as comments at the bottom of this article or publish them as stand-alone comments or “squawks” as we call them in our online trading community. (You can input them right on our Outrageous Predictions page - or simply tag them with the topic "Outrageous Predictions." ) You are also welcome to post them on our specially created Twitter account @SaxoOP and engage in debate there.
Before you publish: keep the spirit of an Outrageous Prediction in mind
Outrageous Predictions are considered as “fat tail” predictions, i.e. events that are unlikely to happen, but are perhaps far more likely than the market appreciates. Should the events happen they would change the outlook and performance of markets.
The contributed Outrageous Predictions must be within the following categories and have relevant market impact:
- Fixed Income
The cut-off date for inclusion in the publication is December 4.
Saxo Bank reserves the right to use external contributions as inspiration for some of our own Outrageous Predictions. We will strive to make all contributions that meet our criteria (subject to editorial approval) available. The contributions that appear in the appendix to our own Outrageous Predictions will be listed anonymously, meaning no credit will be given for them.
I hope you enjoy this exercise and encourage you to think out of the box.
Let the “craziness” begin!
About Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions
Saxo Bank’s yearly Outrageous Predictions report has always been one of its more popular publications, and understandably so, as it frees us and our readers from the constraints of the high probability events in the middle of the supposed bell curve of possibilities.
The “fat tail” concept is inspired by option theory and looks at the tail-risk – an event which is based on odds or logic and has a very small chance of happening, but somehow still happens far more often than any model is able to predict.