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John J Hardy
How will US president Donald Trump’s plans to repeal healthcare legislation affect the markets in the coming week? Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy explains.
Squawk / 20 June 2016 at 6:46 GMT
Consultant in Derivatives and Commodity Specialist / Manor Derivatives(Consulting) Ltd
United Kingdom
whoa scary again this morning mate............hope u got out of your cable shorts last Friday! am tempted to sell here again though
20 June
fxtime fxtime
LOL...just updated the trade a few mins ago....yeah got stopped out at b/e on the short as we had a nice 40 - 50pip dip after that opened so was very lucky there. The trade was turned to the long side again posted on site but in truth I didn';t expect a rally like the one we have seen. FWIW I have positioned a stop at 1.4530 and will turn the trade short there with a 50pip stop.
Strange thing is I thought we wouldn't get rally of this magnitude until Friday!
Hows the extension? Finished ?
20 June
Neil D Neil D
Nah building site here............another few weeks to go yet! Hard living in a place when its being turned upside down lol
20 June
fxtime fxtime
If the cable just rallies this week which isn't my expected route then the safer play for the brexit vote is the eurjpy imho
Yeah we've done similar construction work....a 2mth job became 6mths !
20 June
Neil D Neil D
jeez...........hope mine isn't so bad, expected time is 10-12 weeks but that's just the building work- then all the interior!
20 June
Neil D Neil D
Have sold cable here...........just hard to knw where to place stops in this MF
20 June
fxtime fxtime
Seems as good a place as any for a short LOL. Somehow I doubt either of us try and get the exact top or bottom of moves for obvious reasons. .....providing the cable close values remain below the 1:1 level an approx 1.4700+ then I regard it in a bearish trend. The ATR stop would have been useless this morning. Intraday stops on the cable statistically is effeicient at 45pips or market extremes 50pips. A break of those then usually you have a run away train event.
20 June
Neil D Neil D
no point in looking for tops and bottoms.............and it really doesn't matter when the market can fly around like it is now! Yeah using your normal parameters are out of sync with almost 'Black Swan' moves on a daily basis at least until Friday. I actually believe that the FTSE is prob a buy whether we Brexit or not...........surely the market got down here cos of a fear of such- so cant believe there is much downside for that reason alone. I would defo use some of my 20% cash to step in if it fell another 10%
20 June
fxtime fxtime
I suspect the FTSE and SP500 are both longs but we need Brexit out of the way as I do expect another drop before a rally of strength occurs to mid next month. Currently iwill only look for scalps to the short side as this move is a Fama event ....an outlier and definately beyond the norms of my distribution curves LOL. I have a short on FTSE CASH now at 6136.00 targetting 6100 only but will halve the trade at 6117 !!
20 June
Neil D Neil D
Not sure I agree with an SP long here- valuations have been high for some time- but individual US stock picking may be ok ( I only currently have 1 US stock in my portfolio) . Have you ever done any work on portfolio theory??
20 June
fxtime fxtime
I will await a dip as mentioned before looking for a buy.
portfolio Theory....I have but limited to be honest....I am definately not a fan of efficient market theorem and portfolios but markov and chains seem OK. Depends on portfolio sizing....the ever present hedgehogging issue that even the whale of london sillyness didn't spot!! usually the analytics I do for funds are down to ROCE/ROT/VaR and various pricing models biased to stats. Sadly i am not at your level.
20 June
fxtime fxtime
Presume you also look at currency values when picking US stocks to further enhance eps?
20 June
Neil D Neil D
not as a rule...........as far as i'm concerned hedging for individual stocks is an increment too far. am much more interested in momentum for stock trading
20 June
Neil D Neil D
on portfolio theory, I'm not at any particular sophisticated level............more interested in how to manage a small portfolio more efficiently
20 June
fxtime fxtime
LOL...this could be a detailed conversation...is this better via email?
20 June
fxtime fxtime
What do you use for determining momentum? Hedging is ok with cost basis reduction trades but to be honest there are better means of asset growth imho.
20 June
Neil D Neil D
am just going out but my mail is neildavison56@btinternet.com
20 June
fxtime fxtime
email sent
20 June
fxtime fxtime
Remarkable that the recent poll by The Mail should give the market such momentum. A tabloid that spends its time reporting Royalist stories and various themes even now about the death of Diana yet its statistical prowess is rated to such an extent that we see a rally of todays measure. What next ... horoscope predictions to motivate the market ? !
20 June
zefy zefy
LOL
20 June
zefy zefy
To motivate indeed :)
20 June
fxtime fxtime
Hi Zefy....I guess you have heard of the calibre or more over the lack of calibre from The Mail LOL.
20 June
zefy zefy
Yeah, I know the reputation :)
20 June
zefy zefy
To motivate is funny expression... when you see market moves and reactions to polls...
20 June
fxtime fxtime
LOL....but it shows the madness of the crowds as it were.

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