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What’s the near-time risk in Bitcoin? — #SaxoStrats

Kay Van-Petersen
Saxo's global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen examines the implications for traders and investors considering Bitcoin futures as CME Group - the world’s largest futures exchange - launches the cryptocurrency on December 18.

For more on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, follow Van-Petersen on Twitter here.
Market Predator Market Predator
Kay, BTC is officially mother of all bubbles ever!! I like your previous idea in GMC session, to use low leverage ETC product, in case one would like to be part of crypto space.
fxtime fxtime
We all want to short this market but look at the spread and the average true range for one day currently. Drawdown can be mammoth so for all the bears out there...the rewards can be huge IMHO but so can the risks !! There is no small scale trade on Bitcoin IMHO.
djustoe djustoe
So much talk about the irrational behaviour of bitcoin but it's understandable.. There's never any analyst commentary however on the completely bogus movements of the Dow and what the central banks are doing making the equity markets a completely unfair field.
Dance like nobody's watching Dance like nobody's watching
This comment has been redacted
Daniel CN Daniel CN
Dear Kay, thanks a lot for the insights. I am 42. I opened my company at age 16. I was at the forefront of the internet. I was at the front of the Chinese railway market. So say I was at two disruptive movements. I also saw a lot of things called "disruptions" which where byproducts of latter two. Now truly cannot see why a limited collectible in pure digital form shall be very valuable. I never had any problems sending (huge and small) amounts of money around the globe. I never cared for the cost on my credit card for international fees. And I always felt that I traded currencies as something like a promise by the Chinese people or the Germans or whatever nation issued them to keep it up, pay it back, change it to a house, a drink or a car when I wanted to. Never got disappointed on that one. I love the internet. But just as every IP package has its 15040 bits and I can play with them wonderfully I dont see it. Am I too old?
Daniel CN Daniel CN
Am truly interersted. Could there be one single slogan that explains it? I mean as a marketeer I love the marketing of Bitcoin a lot. Its narrative, hooking basically on the Blockupy movements spirit, selling the perceived "antitrend" to the "establishment" is something Red Bull could not have invented better. Positioning, promotion - excellent. Price - crazy. Product - ??? I dont see a product. I see a promise well described old Marc Knopfler: "money for nothing and the chicks for free". But there was another line sung by the master: "last time I was sober, man I felt bad". We talk of a old school IP based technology that does nothing new. Not a thing. Only the sales of it. I do hope very much you challenge my views. I understand blockchain. I can see it all. And then nothing at all. I would not be surprised if Nakamoto was a sales man. As sales men (I am one too) we are totally used to selling 99% emotion ... or 100%?
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
Daniel CN, a few things...

On a single slogan that explain it? No, because you are asking for something that captures the perspective of crypto is all its glory or horror (depending on what side of the table you are on). What you don't realize with, is how lucky you are... i.e. from your entry & just like most people on TF, you won the geographic lotto. I.e. Getting a bank account & credit card were things that were probably never an issue... now imagine if you are a camel herder in sub-Saharan Africa, a rubber plantation farmer in the amazon or even an immigrant in a 'developed world' - who do you think finds the ability to send capital with just he use of a smartphone more valuable, you or them?

The challenge with perspective, is that its a function of where you are coming from... & thats a big part of the challenge on Crypto. Thats why the leadership in the development of Crypto will come from the EMs &FMs, not DMs. The former have to be solution oriented...
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
Yet, I also hear what you are saying.. many false starts on ground breaking innovation & things that will change the world... & sometimes its actually just time... i.e. FB in the early 90s would have flopped... too early.... & thats the big question on a lot of the cryptos being developed today....
However, there is zero doubt in my mind that the space is here to stay... for the first time in human history we have an alternative outside of traditional fiat & governments - and I think that optionality makes both ecosystems that much better. Just like how we look back & see how crazy it was for the church & state to be synonymous in the middle ages (note some countries still have it), I think we will look back & I say.. how the hell could we let so few people, have so much power with so little accountability, transparency & all the upside... whilst the majority took the hit on their mistakes. I.e. if the world & economics & central banking & debt was all rosy, crypto would not be here.
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
This chart below, captures my big picture take on crypto... forget 2018... forget $100,000 or $50,000... price targets on Bitcoin or whatever... the price appreciation is actually the least interesting thing about the space...

Structurally speaking... this party is just getting started...


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