Video

John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Article / 14 June 2018 at 10:52 GMT

What's in store for gold, post-FOMC?

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
By Ole Hansen

Following the seventh US rate hike this cycle and with the promise of two more before year-end, I see the potential for the gold focus turning more supportive.

• The dollar rally is showing signs of running out of steam.

• The US yield curve is likely to continue to flatten as short-term yields rise while long-end prices stay supported (due to emerging market worries and trade wars).

• Even if bond yields move higher, rising inflation expectations may keep real yields rangebound as breakevens move higher.

• Hedge fund positions are near a two-year low while total holdings in ETFs have recently seen a drop from a five-year high.

Look out for silver, which may prove to be the proverbial canary in the coal mine as it challenges resistance above $17/oz and a trendline dating from last September.

Gold needs to clear $1,308/oz, its 200-day moving average, in order to attract renewed “paper” demand through futures and ETFs. A break above $1,308/oz could see prices initially return to an area between $1,323/oz. and $1,333/oz.

Gold and silver:
XAUUSD

— Edited by Michael McKenna

Ole Hansen is head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank 
15 June
Jadira F. Norton Jadira F. Norton
Thank you Ole 😊

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