Kay Van-Petersen
Kay Van-Petersen, macro strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, digests the market action seen in week 43 and gives his tactical positing. Van-Petersen favours a USD step back, sees gold consolidating, and believes that European equities are overheated.
Day trade
Trade view / 04 July 2016 at 8:27 GMT

Wedge breakout highlights buyers return in USDCHF

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom

USD Index – The stalling in bullish price action is a concern with levels above the 50% pullback of 96.24 finding sellers. However, mixed trading for the last five days looks to have formed a corrective channel or flag that has an eventual bias to break to the upside. What USD bulls don’t want to see is a move through the baseline at 95.26 (current price 95.76). The breakout level is currently at 96.29. There is a lack of economic releases today so we could stay within this range unless we get a news bomb.USD Index

Source: Saxo Bank. Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click here to learn more


Monthly – The longer timeframe still holds a mild bullish bias with an Outside Candle posted in May from the reverse trendline support. 
 Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly – Holding within the weekly Ichimoku cloud. This sometimes results in daily results being mixed. We do hold a bullish Outside Bar from week June 20. This, combined with the corrective channel formation, keeps the outlook positive. The first resistance is seen at 0.9865
Source: Saxo Bank 

Daily – Highlights a 161.8% extension close to the previous high at 1.0274 and is our main medium-term focus. Selling has stalled this morning close to our bespoke support of 0.9717. 
 Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday – The one-hour chart highlights the pair breaking the Ending Wedge formation to the upside. We have bespoke resistance at 0.9752. With this close to the previous swing high, we could see a correction here. We could see a retest of the wedge breakout. The intraday target level is the start of the wedge (0.9820).
Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description


Entry: Buying a dip at 0.9730 or a break of 0.9760

Stop: 40 pips

Target: intraday 0.9820 / medium-term 1.0270

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more


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