Strategic trade
Trade view / 24 March 2015 at 1:44 GMT

Wall Street slips on dollar gyrations

Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
United Kingdom
Instrument: DJI.I
Price target:
Market price:
Background

US stocks edged lower on Monday, March 23 following strong gains in the previous week. Investors were weighing the gyrations in the dollar and its impact on other markets.

Equity markets fluctuated between modest gains and slight losses, tracking the movement of energy stocks as crude oil prices were caught between the weakness in the USD and concerns about oversupply as Saudi Arabia shows no sign of easing off its production.

The action in the dollar has closely affected stocks on anticipation of monetary policy tightening by the Fed some time later this year. However, it is confusing, as Dennis Lockhart for the Reserve Bank of Atlanta calls for a swift rise in Fed Funds, while Charles Evans of Chicago's Federal Reserve is relaxed and believes the data will show the market can wait till 2016.

I am looking to the next reading of fourth quarter GDP, due on Friday, and for the 2.2% call to be marked higher, at least to 2.4%. That would auger well for earnings, which start in a week or two.

I have exposure in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq so I am now looking at the Dow, which is lagging, but I will not move until 14:00 GMT tomorrow as I want to digest the data out on Tuesday - CPI, Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales.
US Indices
Source: Bloomberg, Spotlight Ideas

Management and risk

Parameters Dow Jones Industrials Index

Entry: Buy after 14:00 GMT March 24 so as to see the data releases
    I will post notice of my entry to ensure transparency

Targets:  18360…18500…18730…19000

Stop:  17160

Time horizon:  Strategic


Edited by Susan McDonald

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more

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