Strategic trade
Trade view / 08 February 2018 at 13:50 GMT

Vendemos el cruce USDJPY ya que mejora la economía de Japón

Global Macro Strategist / Saxo Bank Group - Singapore Hub
Instrument: USDJPY
Price target: 102
Market price: 109,60

El telón de fondo de esta idea de negociación es que el crecimiento global es robusto, mientras que al mismo tiempo, los datos de manufacturas de Japón están en su nivel más alto en cuatro años y van en camino a un octavo trimestre consecutivo de expansión. 

Todo esto potencialmente deja al Banco de Japón (BoJ, por sus siglas en inglés) reticente a hacer más QE (alivio cuantitativo) en el corto plazo (es decir, necesita malas noticias para hacer más QE. Las noticias de Japón últimamente han sido buenas, muy buenas). 

Un riesgo obvio es que el aumento de tasas en los Estados Unidos podría forzar al yen japonés (JPY) a subir. Hay un ángulo lateral a esta idea de negociación: debe actuar como una cobertura parcial para la cartera si obtenemos una aversión al riesgo brutal. También me gusta el hecho de que es uno de los pocos, si no solo, bastiones de las posiciones largas en el dólar estadounidense (USD)... es decir, potencial para capitular.

Fuente: Bloomberg

Gestión de la estrategia y descripción del riesgo

Arriesgando 150 puntos básicos. 

Si tenemos un fuerte rebote en el mercado de acciones o un aumento masivo en las tasas de los Estados Unidos y/o el Banco de Japón se torna más blando ("dovish") por una razón u otra... podríamos ver un cruce dólar-yen (USDJPY) mucho más alto. 

Parámetros de la estrategia
Entrada:  109,60

Stop:          114,88

Objetivos:  50% @ 106 
        50% @ 102

Horizonte temporal: 3–9 meses.


• Para hacer trading con el cruce de divisas dólar estadounidense-yen japonés en la plataforma de DIF Markets, usar el ticker (USDJPY)

¿Estás listo para invertir? Aplica tus estrategias de inversión con nuestras plataformas intuitivas. Accede ahora

08 February
usxau usxau
Nice call on audnzd yesterday! ;) Like the long yen trade very much! :)
08 February
seas seas
Not much of a commitment with this wide stop and timeframe. Better go half size on this one.
08 February
seas seas
Actually, more of a hedge than a trade.
08 February
seas seas
If we get to 114.88 on this, rather than a stop, I suggest a double- down and ride it out, for as long as it takes. In other words, don't give up your hard earned cash- markets nearly always come to terms.
08 February
lee88 lee88
Hi Mr Van-Peterson sir... the stop is so wide... excuse me.. but better not put stop loss sir... m i correct?
08 February
lee88 lee88
This kind of trade ... better float until yen strengthen n drop like stone....or worse weaken all the way until margin-call ... correct me if i m wrong sir.. we r trading margin... leverage... arent we? isnt it sir?
08 February
lee88 lee88
Hi Mr Seas.... u agree... No?... excuse me.. but kind of stupid ... dont u think..???
08 February
lee88 lee88
Then again.... i almost forgot SAXO is a market maker....sorry
09 February
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
usxau, seas, lee88... TGIF & thx for the comments.

So a few things... its very onerous for me to put trade views on, i.e. has to go to publisher, mail has to go out, then into the books for Macro Monday, etc... Bottom line... its takes a lot of time & is a bit of a *&%$^!. So to generally have tighter stops... is just not going to work in the long-term... as I'll just go crazy on the trade updates alone.

A tight stop & wide stop go back to the mandate & type of trader/investor you are - you cannot judge the success of portfolio manager on these alone.

All MM trade views are always subject to be adjusted later on in rgds to being closed, doubling dwn at 114 (a la seas), reversal, etc...

As too margins/leverage... that will vary from account to account... there is no way to be standardized across the board... both the TB & SB books are run with USD10m worth of capital & general risk is 100-300bp, & at times a structural high conviction trade gets a NAV allocation & no stops


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail