Video

#SaxoStrats
Today's edition of the Saxo Morning Call features the SaxoStrats team discussing the continuing weakness of the US dollar as commodity prices recover ground and in the wake of key US equity indices hitting all-time highs Thursday.
Strategic trade
/
Sell
Trade view / 08 February 2018 at 13:50 GMT

Vendemos el cruce USDJPY ya que mejora la economía de Japón

Global Macro Strategist / Saxo Bank Group - Singapore Hub
Singapore
Instrument: USDJPY
Price target: 102
Market price: 109,60
Contexto

El telón de fondo de esta idea de negociación es que el crecimiento global es robusto, mientras que al mismo tiempo, los datos de manufacturas de Japón están en su nivel más alto en cuatro años y van en camino a un octavo trimestre consecutivo de expansión. 

Todo esto potencialmente deja al Banco de Japón (BoJ, por sus siglas en inglés) reticente a hacer más QE (alivio cuantitativo) en el corto plazo (es decir, necesita malas noticias para hacer más QE. Las noticias de Japón últimamente han sido buenas, muy buenas). 

Un riesgo obvio es que el aumento de tasas en los Estados Unidos podría forzar al yen japonés (JPY) a subir. Hay un ángulo lateral a esta idea de negociación: debe actuar como una cobertura parcial para la cartera si obtenemos una aversión al riesgo brutal. También me gusta el hecho de que es uno de los pocos, si no solo, bastiones de las posiciones largas en el dólar estadounidense (USD)... es decir, potencial para capitular.

chart
Fuente: Bloomberg

Gestión de la estrategia y descripción del riesgo

Arriesgando 150 puntos básicos. 

Si tenemos un fuerte rebote en el mercado de acciones o un aumento masivo en las tasas de los Estados Unidos y/o el Banco de Japón se torna más blando ("dovish") por una razón u otra... podríamos ver un cruce dólar-yen (USDJPY) mucho más alto. 


Parámetros de la estrategia
 
Entrada:  109,60

Stop:          114,88

Objetivos:  50% @ 106 
        50% @ 102

Horizonte temporal: 3–9 meses.



Sugerencia:

• Para hacer trading con el cruce de divisas dólar estadounidense-yen japonés en la plataforma de DIF Markets, usar el ticker (USDJPY)

¿Estás listo para invertir? Aplica tus estrategias de inversión con nuestras plataformas intuitivas. Accede ahora

08 February
usxau usxau
Nice call on audnzd yesterday! ;) Like the long yen trade very much! :)
08 February
seas seas
Not much of a commitment with this wide stop and timeframe. Better go half size on this one.
08 February
seas seas
Actually, more of a hedge than a trade.
08 February
seas seas
If we get to 114.88 on this, rather than a stop, I suggest a double- down and ride it out, for as long as it takes. In other words, don't give up your hard earned cash- markets nearly always come to terms.
08 February
lee88 lee88
Hi Mr Van-Peterson sir... the stop is so wide... excuse me.. but better not put stop loss sir... m i correct?
08 February
lee88 lee88
This kind of trade ... better float until yen strengthen n drop like stone....or worse weaken all the way until margin-call ... correct me if i m wrong sir.. we r trading margin... leverage... arent we? isnt it sir?
08 February
lee88 lee88
Hi Mr Seas.... u agree... No?... excuse me.. but kind of stupid ... dont u think..???
08 February
lee88 lee88
Then again.... i almost forgot SAXO is a market maker....sorry
09 February
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
usxau, seas, lee88... TGIF & thx for the comments.

So a few things... its very onerous for me to put trade views on, i.e. has to go to publisher, mail has to go out, then into the books for Macro Monday, etc... Bottom line... its takes a lot of time & is a bit of a *&%$^!. So to generally have tighter stops... is just not going to work in the long-term... as I'll just go crazy on the trade updates alone.

A tight stop & wide stop go back to the mandate & type of trader/investor you are - you cannot judge the success of portfolio manager on these alone.

All MM trade views are always subject to be adjusted later on in rgds to being closed, doubling dwn at 114 (a la seas), reversal, etc...

As too margins/leverage... that will vary from account to account... there is no way to be standardized across the board... both the TB & SB books are run with USD10m worth of capital & general risk is 100-300bp, & at times a structural high conviction trade gets a NAV allocation & no stops

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