Short term
Trade view / 08 August 2016 at 7:24 GMT

USDJPY signalling temporary counter-trend rally

partner and technical analyst / 3 c analysis
United Kingdom


Third-quarter signals to sell at 106.22 on USDJPY have been close to the high and despite last month’s 7 ½ Big Fig rally from 100.00 the Fig signals in each of the last two weeks have remained bearish. The Fig is also close to a 50% pullback to the entire 2011-15 bull-run.

These have been confirmed as rallies have been attracting sellers at the 200-week and 100-day average rates. However, last week’s losses were mostly recovered on Friday which has ended a sequence of lower daily highs and switched shorter-term signals to bullish. Any gains are likely to be temporary though as signals also suggest that this will be a counter-trend rally.

Management and risk description

Allow room to buy the dip and raise the stop to the entry point if the 1st target is met


Entry: market and 101.22, Friday's opening trade.

Stop: 99.90, just below July's base

Target: 103.80, the 13 day average rate and 104.70, the 50 day average.

Time horizon: this week.


USDJPY Daily - lower highs ended

USDJPY Quarterly - 50% pullback
 Source (all charts): CGQ

— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
08 August
sam wightman sam wightman
Hi Steve
I am following USD/JPY , I see you want to Buy @101.22, could this be a good short trade from current market.?
08 August
Steve Lucas Steve Lucas
Hi Sam...we may get a dip, but rather than wait for that I have bought now and then will buy the 2nd tranche at 101.22....Of course you could short if you think we will go lower, but I am trading this from the long side for now.
08 August
seas seas
Crazy spikes in this pair. Good to have a plan like this with deep stops!
08 August
Steve Lucas Steve Lucas
The stop is key - and if that stop is far away (lately stops have been wider due to volatility) then what changes is the amount at risk, so in the case of yen and sterling recently those amounts have been smaller while risking the same capital.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail