Short term
/
Buy
Trade view / 29 March 2018 at 0:36 GMT

USDJPY may have a significant turn this week

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
Instrument: USDJPY
Price target: 107.86
Market price: 106.83
Background

USD has found a bid in the last 24 hours and the upwards move looks set to continue.

Various reasons are being given for the recovery, including a blow out in the LIBOR-OIS spread. See here

The main event on the US data card today will be the price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s inflation benchmark, for the period ending February.

Following on from the CPI release a couple of weeks ago, the annual core rate may show a modest rise from 1.5% to 1.6% - nothing to get excited about. 
 
Friday we will see a flash of the Tokyo CPI for March out of Japan.

Management and risk description

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the USD is interpreted as being in the final stages of a complex corrective structure extending from its 118.60 peak of January 2017 and it is possible that this week’s 104.60 low has been a key turning point (refer to daily chart).

To validate this reversal possibility, I will be closely monitoring the USD's short-term wave structure over the coming days, for evidence of the completion of an initial “impulsive” (Bullish) 5 Wave sequence from this week’s 104.60 low.

In the short term, support now lies at 106.550/106.40 and around the 106.00 level maximum for a test of resistance around the mid 107.00’s, en route to 107.90.

Parameters

Entry: Until 107.00 is cleared, Dollar is seen as a buy about 106.55/106.40

Stop:
below 106.00, initially 

Target:
50% at 107.43 and 50% at 107.86

Time horizon:
allow several days for both targets to be met

USDJPY Daily Chart (click to expand)
USDJPY  Daily chart
 

USDJPY weekly chart (click to expand)
USDJPY weekly chart
Source: Both charts, ThomsonReuters  


— Edited by Adam Courtenay

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here
1y
marran marran
this trade not looking great Max, do you think its just profit taking at end of month?
1y
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Still trying to develop "initial" 5 wave sequence from 104.60 low ... ideally still a 5th leg Up ahead!
1y
seas seas
Fundamentally, what do you think might be a fair rate for this vexing pair, Max?
1y
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Email me (details under my Bio) and I'll send you my Daily FX Forecasts on Tuesday, when I return to my desk OK
1y
seas seas
Done. Thanks!
1y
marran marran
what does vexing this pair mean?
1y
lee88 lee88
vexing.... means "headache"... difficult to trade.....
1y
lee88 lee88
simple ... yen is going down to 105... then 104
1y
Are you sure? Are you sure?
Bravo max , ıt is 111.00 now!!!!!!!!
1y
marran marran
thank you lee88
1y
marran marran
are you still in this trade Max?
1y
marran marran
ironically it now looks like its going our way!
1y
Loris Loris
Yeahhhhh Max. Superstar :-) I am back again
1y
marran marran
i wish i was still in the trade
1y
marran marran
Nice call Max

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