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Wednesday's FOMC outing showed the Powell Fed to be less model-driven than its predecessors, but the lack of any language confirming four 2018 rate hikes sent the dollar plunging lower.
Short term
Trade view / 17 August 2016 at 9:05 GMT

USDJPY hints at a retracement

Technical Analyst / FuturesTechs
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDJPY
Price target:
Market price:

USDJPY pleased the headline makers yesterday by dipping below 100.00. Alas, 100.00 wasn't that technically important, with 99.00 a far more important mark as this was the low on "Brexit day" back in June. 

We are back above 100.00 now, getting up to 101.16 overnight before seeing a small pullback. I am feeling a bit "contrarian" on this one today and will break from my usual trend-following approach to suggest a long trade, as we have a couple of support levels at 100.75 and 100.35 that we can structure a trade around that limits risk. 

Finally, note the uptrending RSI; something else is favouring the idea that yesterday may have been some kind of bottom for now.

Management and risk description

As per the above we think 100.75 or 100.35 could act as support today, so we can limit "risk" to 50 ticks by using these levels for our trade.


Entry: buy above 100.75

Stop: below 100.25

Targets: 102.50, 103.60 and 105.50.

Time horizon: one or two weeks.

Daily candlestick chart:

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Weekly bar chart:
— Edited by Michael McKenna

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Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more


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