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​The Trump administration has not yet formally deployed the long-awaited latest $200 billion in tariffs against China, but a new Wall Street Journal report indicates that Japan might be next on the agenda.
Day trade
/
Sell
Trade view / 06 April 2017 at 7:06 GMT

USDJPY headed towards last leg lower

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDJPY
Price target: 109.70
Market price: 110.48
Background

It does not look like the selloff in USDJPY has come to an end, yet. 

Monthly – The monthly chart highlights a bullish reverse Head and Shoulders. A break of 126.60 is needed to confirm the outlook. The most important factor here is the Marabuzo support from November 2016 seen at 109.62 (half net gains from 104.81 to 114.44).

USDJPY M
 Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly – The move lower from the 118.65 high (week beginning December 12) has been mixed and volatile, common in corrective formations. 

USDJPY W
 Source: Saxo Bank

Daily – We are moving lower in the AB=CD formation. Note: AB in 5 waves, BC in three waves, CD in three waves. A common corrective structure. 

USDJPY D
 Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday (two-hours) – The intraday timeframe highlights an AB=CD formation down to 109.53, just below of the Marabuzo level. A correction count is seen on the intraday chart so we look to short USDJPY at our bespoke level of 110.75. This offers good risk/reward on the next leg lower. 

USDJPY 2
Source: Saxo Bank 

Management and risk description

Parameters

Entry: selling at 110.70-75.

Stop: 111.25.

Target: 109.70 and 109.50.

Time horizon: 1-2 sessions.

— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
hi at 110.5 is it too early to short USDJPY
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
that is up top you .. i have levels i stick to
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
but nfp tomorrow.

the direction seems v unclear. why morning in asian time it cant break 110. similarly it also cannot break up.

on one hand we see usdchf break above 1.
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
i wait for 110.750 then. thanks
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
i look for confirmation of a trend change ... osb (OUTSIDE BAR) doji star etc... do not mind if i miss a few
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
the direction is v unclear at the moment.
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
shorted usdjpy. trigger at 110.7.
2y
Cussler Cussler
Ian my D completion is at 108.50 Does CD need to be at least as long as AB?
2y
heavenlyguy heavenlyguy
short 110.7
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Hi Cussler .... CD legs are normally longer but I don't think there is a hard rule for EW... CD has to be lower then AB (in this case) but not lower than wave 2
2y
Cussler Cussler
Great. Thanks Ian
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
so all on usdjpy short train now...? keep finger cross
2y
marran marran
yep just gone short, fingers crossed, im starting to get nervous!! lol
2y
Jazzy Jazzy
yeah short... took 2 trades, .70 and .80... lets see
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
i also nervous too. haha. esp the 110 barrier mark
2y
marran marran
what stop you guys using?
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
for me 111.100
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
my biggest concern is the 110 barrier. but maybe when american session opens n dow jones on a big sell i think the 110 may really make way.
2y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
With the greenback heading south could we see AUDUSD moving back to 6700 area remember trump is around today and his meeting today might change the outcome.
2y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
Still on holiday LOL 😎
2y
marran marran
im out at 111.30 Im hoping what you say is right fashion! thats what i was thinking
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
6700 area for aussie??? u mean 76 cents for au?
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
haha. i follow ian. i think he has a few good calls.

what disturbs me is the comment that yellen n fed makes on the overvaluation of equity, which i think many did not expect it. i mean trim balance sheet is something we expect a possibility. so i think wait a few more hours n see.

for fx i also dun know what to target. i miss the aud short so dun think will go in. gbp doesnt look like will rally if stock mkt doesnt rally. guess the only option is buy yen
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
i dunno. but i am not so bullish on audusd. audjpy n nzdjpy yes. is the rate differential.
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
needs to start making a move soon !
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
patiently waiting for uj...
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
ian, a qns for u.

the title says usdjpy headed last leg lower.

last meaning final selling... maybe uj is a buy tomorrow morning be4 nfp. jus a guess. most likely my uj short will be closed be4 nfp data out tmr.
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
No .. I think NFP will probably be the catalyst for the last leg lower. I am pretty bullish on most JPY crosses at lower levels but think that will be more base currency than JPY .

If the US hold back on rate hikes that should be bullish for stocks (and JPY crosses - eventually) ...... more cheap money
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
i see. so now jpy crosses still hv to correct further be4 bullish.

it takes guts to hold uj short be4 nfp... see how it goes.

thanks for sharing your view.
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
110.9.. keep finger cross. god bless everyone here.
2y
Jazzy Jazzy
so added a extra short @110.90
2y
Jazzy Jazzy
:(
2y
VOHRA VOHRA
Good
2y
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
Hi Ian, Is your view and targets still holding?
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
yes but current price action has me a little concerned
2y
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
great, please let us know if you decide on closing it at entry price
2y
Corto Maltese Corto Maltese
still little concerned or improving ?
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
lol... improving ... we will see .. stocks due another leg lower so ......
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
yes.. trump n xi meeting wont hv a conclusion today until tomorrow.

keep finger cross... the 110 barrier needs to break
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
looks temporarily safe. jus need a bit more push down
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
the stocks are still not on a major selldown.... no gd
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
sorry ian, i decide to cut loss n close everything. stocks are still rising despite fed comments on overvaluation.

plus nfp is tmr
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
the 110 barrier looks unlikely to break. also with the adp, i wouldnt want to bet that the nfp will disappoint.
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
i wouldnt wan to make assumptions on whether fed will hold back rate hike but as far as i see if US data continues to be gd, they will continue with the rate hike n also trim off balance sheet
2y
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
Any thoughts Ian?
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
cut. s&p, dow jones are all rising.

i believe uj n gj will continue to rise till nfp event comes
2y
ashrafj1 ashrafj1
Hi Ian thank you for support but I recommend if you have stop trade to inform us
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
oh.. us launch missiles at syria. this is unexpected
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
ian guess u spot on.... haha :)
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
the 110 is the criticak

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