Kay Van-Petersen
Kay Van-Petersen, macro strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, digests the market action seen in week 43 and gives his tactical positing. Van-Petersen favours a USD step back, sees gold consolidating, and believes that European equities are overheated.
Short term
Trade view / 14 June 2016 at 9:34 GMT

USDJPY getting ready to break bearish

Technical Analyst / FuturesTechs
United Kingdom

USDJPY bottomed out at 105.53 on May 3. We then rallied to 111.45 by the end of May. Since then, we've sold off and it has ben pretty orderly. I have been advising clients to be short since June 1 and did a piece here at on June 2 suggesting we would go back to 105.53. 

Almost there! 

So is it a buy now that we're at support? I don't think so. In fact I'm short and staying short, even thinking of adding as we should get quite a reaction if/when 105.53 and 105.19 give way, as there next area of support is in the low 103s. 

Intraday price action in the last 24 hours backs this up with rallies being sold.

Risk-off sentiment around the traps (I'm not entirely convinced this is only about Brexit, but there you go...) adds weight to this view.

The only caveat to this trade is possible intervention as we're at critical levels... 


Entry: sell at market (currently 105.66) and a rally to 106.00.

Stop: above 106.55.

Targets: 103.10 and 101.05.

Time horizon: one to two weeks.

Daily candlestick:

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Weekly bar:
— Edited by Michael McKenna

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Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
15 June
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Just to update this trade idea, it's not going that well! We have rallied to 106.40 since I write this, and seem to be travelling higher in a channel on the 30 minute chart. We are sitting on this channel support line right now. If we break 106.235 the downsaide story can get going once more and we can put some distance on our stop. At least my stop plaement seems "good" for now basis the day's high... Here's that channel on a chart:
15 June
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Another thing encouraging the idea that Yen strength is still very much a story is today's failure at 119.45 in EURJPY. This was a good intra-day reference yesterday and is also Marabuzo resistance, and if you follow my analysis closely you'll know how much I like those!!!
15 June
leo_100 leo_100
the 106.235 support has been broken.. are you still in the trade?
16 June
Raj-900 Raj-900
Hi Clive,
Since it has broken 105 and around 104, now the target around 103.12 range?
16 June
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
103.10 is indeed my next target as per the trade idea. I would like to see 104.52 capping any attempts at a recovery for the rest of the day, ideally... Still short!!
16 June
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Nudging up to that 104.52 level so if you're looking to get short today and think we're going to keep going lower now is your time!!!
16 June
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Here's a chart. Break that uptrend line and off we go again...


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