Medium term
Trade view / 03 June 2016 at 7:43 GMT

USDCHF set to rally in bullish fifth wave

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDCHF
Price target:
Market price:

USD Index: It's always a hard job analysing the markets into the nonfarm payroll figures as there are normally two scenarios to choose from, one with a higher percentage chance of being correct.

Bullish: Daily chart highlights a three-wave correction from the 161.8% extension at 95.85 (from 91.88-94.33) now complete. Buyers have returned.

Bearish: The intraday chart highlights a 261.8% extension complete at 95.75 (from 91.88-93.36). A possible bearish Head and Shoulders is forming with a break of yesterday’s low taking the index down in a corrective manner.

With bespoke support at 95.22, we are on the side of the bulls.

USDCHF – Taken a small USCHF long this morning and here is why:

Market Profile – First and foremost, this morning’s Initial Balance was above yesterday’s Value Area. This normally dictates that the trend will continue.

Monthly Bullish Outside month for May from trend line support. This normally dictates the start of a new trend.  
 Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly – Wedge breakout. The measured move target is at 1.0248.
 Source: Saxo Bank

Daily – Broken through the trend line resistance and paused (consolidated) close to the 161.8% extension level of 0.9958 (from 0.9442-0.9761). This is seen as a fourth wave correction. Also, note how the pullbacks in wave 2 and 4 have been mild, highlighting the strength of the trend.
 Source: Saxo Bank

The most important factor here is the 261.8% extension level (1.0277) being close to the wedge breakout target at 1.0248. This makes a great medium-term play with good risk/reward

Management and risk description


Entry: Market (long at 0.9907).

Stop: Initially at 0.9860 (may look to raise before the figures).

Target: Intraday has a flag target at 0.9940. Medium-term 1.0250.

Time horizon: Medium-term target could take 3 days or 3 weeks. The 5th waves are very hard predict.

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
Alexei Salikov Alexei Salikov
Спасибо за обзор, вы подтвердили мои предположения, цель 1.02 будет достигнута до заседания ФРС?
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Я надеюсь, что это так. Удачи


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