Day trade
/
Sell
Trade view / 05 March 2018 at 8:30 GMT

USDCHF moving lower in a corrective formation

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDCHF
Price target: 0.9290
Market price: 0.9378
Background

EUR/CHF found support close to 1.1500 against the franc on Friday and strengthened to the 1.1550 area late in the session. USD/CHF also recovered from weakest levels with a close around 0.9370.

The franc lost some ground late as US and European bond yields retreated and US equity prices recovered ground. Uncertainty surrounding the Italian political situation, however, triggered renewed defensive franc demand on Monday with EUR/CHF near 1.1520 as global equities also retreated.  

Technical

The medium-term bias remains bullish. 
A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming. 
The gap open from 0.9372 to 0.9347 has now been closed. 
We continue to expect further gains to be limited and look to set shorts for a further drive lower within the channel. 
Further selling is expected to follow with the hourly Ichimoku cloud and our bespoke resistance (0.9391) offering incentive. 
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. 

USDCHF Intraday Chart
USDCHF 4
Source: Saxo Bank


Management and risk description

If stop or target levels are not reached, traded price at 21:00hrs (UK time) or in the case of Asian/Pacific ideas 16:00 hrs (UK time) the following day, will be used as a closing level for performance analysis. 

Parameters

Entry: Intraday - We look to sell at 0.9391

Stop: 0.9431

Target: 0.9290



— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here
05 March
alki alki
Good morning sir. My last 4 trade setups for this pair failed to trigger .-) I suppose i am overly cautious!
05 March
tonyovsalford tonyovsalford
Morning Ian. Did this trigger already?
05 March
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
nope .... just EURUSD
05 March
tonyovsalford tonyovsalford
Ok taa👍
05 March
alki alki
Bombs away!
05 March
Edgaras Edgaras
I believe trade should be closed at 21.00. But i'll give a go and will let to run overnight. Hopefully this is still valid :)
06 March
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
we close at 9pm ... selling higher levels today
06 March
Edgaras Edgaras
thank you Ian. Will you update entry points?
06 March
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
USDCHF - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.9415 (stop at 0.9445)

We have posted an inside Harami candle on the daily chart. A clear sign of investor indecision. Selling posted in Asia. RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending. The move lower is mixed and volatile, common in corrective sequences. A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade.
Our profit targets will be 0.9290 and 0.9260

Resistance: 0.9415 / 0.9490 / 0.9500
Support: 0.9377 / 0.9287 / 0.9260
06 March
Edgaras Edgaras
thank you
06 March
alki alki
Still in this one since last evening - i decided to give it a try.
06 March
Edgaras Edgaras
Any ideas what went wrong here? :) this hourly reversal quite upsetting :(
06 March
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
this last move back up? USD index bouncing off the fib.... I have no signal to reverse the USD view as yet
06 March
Edgaras Edgaras
I see now all pairs started reversing so it makes sense :) first action was on CHF and others was non movers :)
06 March
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I would actually welcome some USD strength so I can sell USDJPY higher
06 March
Edgaras Edgaras
let's keep fingers crossed
06 March
Edgaras Edgaras
I was stopped out with CHF. Would you consider to re-enter at higher levels?
06 March
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I very rarely go back in
06 March
Edgaras Edgaras
Got it. thank you
06 March
tonyovsalford tonyovsalford
Ouch stung again. Note to self. KEEP AN EYE ON WHATS GOING ON.
06 March
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
??? on a 0.9415 entry?
06 March
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Updates
2018-03-06 07:00:45

The move to 0.9415 triggered our short trade
2018-03-06 15:50:45

In the interest of money management, we look to move the stop to 0.9410. No profit has been taken
06 March
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
remember we close out at 9pm
06 March
tonyovsalford tonyovsalford
Yeah got my Longs and Shorts wrong through rushing to get to a breakdown:(

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